Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST MODEL RUN MAINTAIN SOME TROFFING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT A BIT TO THE WEST. MEANWHILE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH SHOULD AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL SHOW BEST
POPS FOR REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA WHERE PRECIP APPEARS TO BE FIRING UP ALONG OLD BOUNDARIES
(PERHAPS FROM FRIDAY'S CONVECTION). POPS MORE UNIFORM SUNDAY/MONDAY
WITH MODELS HINTING AT OLD BOUNDARY SHIFTING A BIT MORE TO THE
NORTH AND SOME WEAK UPPER SUPPORT TRANSVERSING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION. IN SPITE OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIP...WARM TEMPS
CONTINUING. MET MOS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT
BETTER THAN MAV AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THOSE VALUES. WILL STAY WITH
A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED PROGS MAINTAIN REMNANTS OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
MEANDERING ACROSS OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS A BIT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS SHOULD ALL LEND HAND TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP
DURING THE PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH READINGS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

49
&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA IS HARD TO FIND BUT SHOULD STILL
FAVOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF CSG TO MCN WITH ONLY ISOLATED
NORTH. HAVE SHOWN ONLY CB OR VCTS FOR NOW AND WILL WATCH TO SEE HOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPS. SCT CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON 4 TO 5THSD FT
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER 00Z. VISIBILITY LOCALLY 5SM IN HAZE 09Z
TO 13Z. WINDS 5KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY E TO SE. WINDS
NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION.
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON TSTM LOCATIONS.
HIGH ON VFR CONDITIONS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  92  69  94 /  20  30  20  30
ATLANTA         73  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     64  88  67  87 /  20  30  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    66  93  68  93 /  10  30  30  40
COLUMBUS        73  93  72  93 /  30  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     71  91  71  92 /  20  30  30  40
MACON           71  95  68  94 /  30  30  20  20
ROME            67  94  70  93 /  10  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  68  92  69  92 /  30  30  20  30
VIDALIA         71  93  71  93 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
214 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
214 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH STALLED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEST INSTABILITIES AND WEAK WIND SHEAR
PROFILES SHOULD HELP HOLD MOST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER... AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
THE STATE DURING MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE... THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL GREATLY DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
308 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

GAZ061-073-074-084-021945-
308 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN WASHINGTON...
WILKINSON...BALDWIN AND HANCOCK COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 306 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LINTON AND DEEPSTEP...MOVING WEST AT 15
MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WASHINGTON...WILKINSON...BALDWIN AND HANCOCK COUNTIES THROUGH
345 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
WARTHEN...DEEPSTEP...LINTON...HEBRON...DEVEREUX...BEULAH AND
UNDERWOOD. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3288 8316 3325 8324 3325 8282 3301 8276
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 083DEG 13KT 3315 8292

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
409 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

GAZ074-022045-
409 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING IN WASHINGTON COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 403 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SANDERSVILLE...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
INDICATED.

FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS AND AWAY
FROM DOORS...WINDOWS...AND ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. LAND-LINE
TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3284 8252 3281 8288 3313 8290 3324 8276
      3322 8273 3321 8274 3318 8274 3314 8268
      3289 8251
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 271DEG 8KT 3298 8274

19