Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
144 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011/

UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHWEST GEORGIA...WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE
AND STRONGER STORMS TO OUR WEST OVER ALABAMA. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
AND A FRONT APPROACHING...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME MORE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND HAVE
KEEP PREVIOUS FORECAST POPS GOING. HAVE BACKED OFF A TAD ON HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST COUNTIES WITH BROAD AREA OF
CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THAT AREA.

49

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH POPS TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ALTHOUGH FEEL POPS ARE STILL TOO LOW AND WILL BUMP UP TO
CHANCE/LIKELY WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. A WEAK WAVE IS
CURRENT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INCLUDING THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THIS HAS DEVELOPED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND THESE ARE MOVING EAST. THIS WAVE
SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR BY 12Z. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...DROPPING INTO NORTH GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE RISK OF CONVECTION GOING THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AS A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA DUE TO SEA BREEZE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS/ECWMF BUILD A 595 HIGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
END OF THIS WEEK...SHIFTING THE HIGH INTO KY/TN FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING THE HOT TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE CWA. DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM. THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND IS REPLACED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN WHICH COULD
BE ENOUGH TO BRING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF PRECIP BY THE END OF
THE LONG TERM.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR FORECAST AT ALL SITES...WITH MVFR DUE TO AFTERNOON/EVENING
TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INITIATE AFTER
19Z AND MOVE THROUGH METRO ATL SITES TONIGHT. CONVECTION ALONG A
BOUNDARY NEARING CSG...COULD HELP INITIATION AT MCN. CSG MAY SEE
CHANCES OF TSRA FALL AFTER THOSE STORMS MOVE THROUGH...BUT MCN
COULD SEE A LONG NIGHT OF STORMS AS CONVECTION THAT MOVES FROM THE
NORTH COULD AFFECT THEM THROUGH 03Z. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY W-NW
AT MOST SITES...EXCEPT AHN WHICH COULD GO E-NE TOMORROW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS...CIGS...AND VSBYS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON PCPN AND CONVECTION TIMING.
PREFERRED CAE WRF NMM AND NAM BUFR/GFS BUFR BLEND.

10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  71  93  69 /  60  60  10  10
ATLANTA         90  72  91  71 /  60  60  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  66  84  63 /  60  40  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    89  69  89  64 /  60  40  10  10
COLUMBUS        93  73  93  72 /  50  50  40  10
GAINESVILLE     89  71  90  69 /  60  50  10  10
MACON           92  72  93  71 /  50  50  40  20
ROME            89  70  90  64 /  60  40  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  90  68  90  67 /  60  60  20  10
VIDALIA         93  74  92  73 /  50  50  50  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
515 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-290915-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
515 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL SINK
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 60
MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST LOCATION FOR SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL SINK
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW WEAK WAVES ALONG
THE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE STATE BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA. INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES EXPECTED IN THE 2000 TO 2500 RANGE
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1020 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WNW TRION             34.57N 85.40W
06/28/2011                   CHATTOOGA          GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CHATTOOGA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS A TREE DOWN
            ON HEMPHILL ROAD.

0840 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE SUMMERVILLE       34.50N 85.34W
06/28/2011                   CHATTOOGA          GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CHATTOOGA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS A DOWNED
            TREE ON GOODWIN DRIVE AT WYLAN HILLS.

&&

RGARCIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1257 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

GAZ078-281730-
1257 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN HARRIS COUNTY UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

AT 1254 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF WHITESVILLE-PINE LAKE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
HARRIS COUNTY THROUGH 130 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE JONES CROSSROADS...WHITESVILLE-PINE LAKE...LAKE
HARDING...MOUNTAIN HILL...MULBERRY GROVE...FORTSON...CATAULA AND
HAMILTON. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3287 8503 3272 8474 3258 8486 3258 8490
      3261 8491 3261 8503 3269 8512 3273 8512
      3275 8515 3278 8513 3281 8517 3284 8516
      3287 8519
TIME...MOT...LOC 1658Z 307DEG 15KT 3280 8512

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
143 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

GAZ079-080-281830-
143 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN TALBOT AND TAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 140 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER OLIVE BRANCH...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS TALBOT AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE
STORM INCLUDE OLIVE BRANCH...BAUGHVILLE...WOODLAND...TALBOTTON...
GENEVA...PO BIDDY CROSSROADS...JUNCTION CITY...BALDWINVILLE...
PRATTSBURG AND HOWARD.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 8445 3256 8445 3256 8449 3255 8449
      3254 8453 3263 8470 3271 8470 3273 8468
      3274 8469 3278 8470 3282 8467 3275 8430
      3249 8443
TIME...MOT...LOC 1742Z 291DEG 21KT 3270 8458

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
150 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

GAZ108>110-281815-
150 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WILCOX...TELFAIR AND DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 146 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER RHINE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WILCOX...TELFAIR AND DODGE COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RHINE...BROWNING...
TEMPERANCE...WORKMORE...CHINA HILL AND JACKSONVILLE. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3179 8308 3180 8309 3182 8316 3184 8318
      3184 8321 3188 8331 3205 8324 3194 8275
      3183 8279 3178 8286 3178 8299 3177 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 1750Z 287DEG 8KT 3194 8319

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
220 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

GAZ081-281845-
220 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN CRAWFORD COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 217 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES WEST OF ROBERTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
CRAWFORD COUNTY THROUGH 245 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM INCLUDE FRIENDSHIP...HORNS...NAKOMIS...LEE POPE...
KNOXVILLE AND ROBERTA. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3255 8404 3259 8407 3263 8407 3264 8406
      3268 8410 3267 8413 3269 8420 3280 8415
      3280 8413 3282 8412 3271 8379 3267 8381
      3253 8400
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 296DEG 12KT 3272 8414