Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1016 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

.UPDATE...
ISSUING AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS FOR TONIGHT IN ALL BUT EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.  WILL ALSO DROP MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AREAWIDE
AS COOLING FROM RAIN WILL DROP TEMPS BELOW FORECAST MIN TEMPS.  REST
OF PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD.

27
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 359 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011/
COLD POOL HAS PUSHED INTO NORTH GEORGIA AND A DECENT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE CAN BE OBSERVED BETWEEN FAR NORTH GEORGIA WHERE IT IS
82 IN DALTON AND THEN CARTERSVILLE SOUTHWARD WHERE IT IS 90 AT
CARTERSVILLE. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS STRETCHED FROM ROME TO
DAHLONEGA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITH THIS FEATURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AND HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED REPORTS OF HAIL TODAY WITH THE PULSE THUNDERSTORMS. MCS
OVER WESTERN TENN IS HEADING SOUTHWARD INTO ALABAMA BUT IT WILL
SPREAD INTO GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

EXPECT TO SEE THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO KICK OFF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING AND WITH TO THE ABOUT TO PUSH
INTO GEORGIA...KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE BEGINNING PORTION OF THE
NIGHT /LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON/.

ON MONDAY MAY HAVE THE LINGERING REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY FROM
TODAY TO HELP INITIATE STORMS WITH DIURNAL HEATING. IN ADDITION
MAY SEE AN MCS FROM THE STORMS IN WESTERN MISSOURI TRY AND MAKE
IT INTO THE STATE. THE SYSTEM IS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS GEORGIA. GIVEN THIS...THERE
IS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE A
FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON TUESDAY WITH IT ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

LOW TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS MAY DEPEND ON A LOT OF HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN CLEARS
OUT AND IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 359 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011/
GFS IS PROGRESSIVE WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT HOWEVER THE ECMWF
WANTS TO LINGER THE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA INTO FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...GFS
IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP BUT EVEN WITH THAT...CANT
RULE OUT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP.

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 755 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011/
INTENSE BUT NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH AREA THIS
EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 45KTS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
WINDS AND IFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER PASSAGE. WINDS WILL RETURN WESTERLY AND LIGHT AFTER 04Z.
EXPECT STRATUS IFR ISSUES FROM 10-14Z IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TAF
SITES AND MVFR VSBYS DUE TO RESIDUAL RAINFALL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MED TO HIGH ON MOST ELEMENTS...EXCEPT LOW TO MED ON OCCURRENCE OF
MORNING STRATUS AND FOG.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  95  72  96 / 100  30  20  30
ATLANTA         72  94  75  92 /  90  30  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     65  91  68  90 /  90  40  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    67  93  69  94 /  60  40  20  40
COLUMBUS        73  95  74  95 / 100  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     69  94  73  93 /  90  40  20  40
MACON           70  95  73  96 /  90  40  20  30
ROME            69  94  71  96 /  60  40  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  68  93  70  93 / 100  30  20  30
VIDALIA         73  95  75  95 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BUTTS...CLARKE...CLAYTON...
CRAWFORD...DEKALB...FAYETTE...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARRIS...HENRY...JACKSON...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PIKE...ROCKDALE...SPALDING...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...
TAYLOR...TOWNS...TROUP...UNION...UPSON...WALTON...WARREN...
WHITE...WILKES.

&&

11

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