Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
750 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN
ON BACK SIDE OF DEEP UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND EAST
SIDE OF INTENSE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER TX. A SERIES OF EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION AND IMPINGE ON A VERY
MOIST...UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WAS TRACKING ACROSS MIDDLE/EASTERN TN THIS
AFTERNOON AND A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALREADY
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ESE FROM THIS AREA ACROSS N GA INTO NC/SC. WRF/HRR CONVECTIVE MODELS
AND GFS/ECMWF LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD DURING THE EVENING TOWARD ATL-AHN
AND THEN TOWARD CSG-MCN BY 06Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. AN EVEN MORE
POTENT DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT IN THE MODELS FOR SAT...WITH GOOD
INDICATION OF A POTENTIAL MCS TYPE EVENT...SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SAW
LAST WEEK. ECMWF/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN AN MCS ENTERING NW GA
BEFORE 18Z SAT...TRACKING SE TOWARD ATL-CSG IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FOR
SUN...YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRACKS AROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THIS TIME MORE INTO NE/EC GA...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
ATTEMPTS TO DIMINISH ACTIVITY IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE STATE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...EXPECT GOOD CHC DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

MAX/MIN TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH WITH NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS
EXPECTED. MAV/MET BLEND BEST OPTION AS NO CONSISTENCY FROM
RUN-TO-RUN AS TO WHICH MODEL DOES BETTER. OVERALL...THE MET MOS HAS
BEEN SLIGHTLY BETTER FOR MIN TEMPS THE PAST FEW CYCLES...WHILE THE
MAV MOS HAS DONE SLIGHTLY BETTER FOR MAX TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIODS. THE
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM...BUT NEVER FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO COMPLETELY SHUT OFF THE POTENTIAL FOR NW FLOW THUNDERSTORMS AND
POSSIBLE MCS ACTIVITY. THUS...THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
CONVECTIVE CONVERGE...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS MON-TUE...BUT
BY NO MEANS A CLEAR SIGNAL THAT POPS CAN BE DROPPED BELOW
MENTIONABLE VALUES ANYWHERE. DURING THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE
EXTENDED...THE UPPER RIDGE RETREATS WEST...SO OUR REGION IS ONCE
AGAIN PLACED IN AN ACTIVE NW FLOW REGIME. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE
HINTS OF AN EASTERLY WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO
THE SE U.S. AND REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION.
OVERALL...EXPECTED A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN HOT AND HUMID WITH NO APPRECIABLE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE EXPECTED AS INDICATED IN THE LATEST MEX MOS.

19
&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONVECTION LINE HAS MOVED THROUGH THE METRO AIRPORTS...BUT A
SECOND LINE IS APPROACHING.  EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS DURING STORMS
WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH 03Z.  WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE WEAKER THAN
EARLIER STORMS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT 30KTS IN STRONGEST STORMS.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN RAPIDLY AFTER 03Z IN METRO AREA AND AHN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS OF FORECAST...HIGHER CONFIDENCE
AFTER 04Z.

27
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  95  66  96 /  50  30  30  40
ATLANTA         73  91  71  94 /  50  60  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     66  87  65  89 /  30  30  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    72  92  65  94 /  50  50  30  40
COLUMBUS        73  93  72  96 /  40  60  50  40
GAINESVILLE     72  92  68  93 /  50  50  30  40
MACON           72  95  69  98 /  40  60  50  40
ROME            70  93  67  95 /  50  50  30  40
PEACHTREE CITY  70  92  64  94 /  50  60  40  40
VIDALIA         73  95  75  98 /  30  20  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...
LUMPKIN...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...
SOUTH FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

19/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
300 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-251900-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
300 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE IN NORTH GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTH
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DISCUSSION...
DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1500 TO
2000 WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO NEAR -4.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
830 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             1 NW DAHLONEGA          34.54N 84.00W
06/24/2011  E1.00 INCH       LUMPKIN            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A SMALL AND BRIEF AMOUNT OF QUARTER-SIZED HAIL ON THE
            NORTHWEST SIDE OF DAHLONEGA. MOST OTHER HAIL WAS
            NICKEL-SIZED ON NORTH AND NORTHEAST SIDE OF TOWN.

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ESE DAHLONEGA         34.52N 83.92W
06/24/2011                   LUMPKIN            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON LONGBRANCH ROAD AND GA 115 W.

0319 PM     HAIL             4 ESE DAHLONEGA         34.51N 83.92W
06/24/2011  E0.88 INCH       LUMPKIN            GA   PUBLIC

0319 PM     HAIL             3 ESE DAHLONEGA         34.52N 83.94W
06/24/2011  E0.25 INCH       LUMPKIN            GA   PUBLIC

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FORT OGLETHORPE         34.95N 85.26W
06/24/2011                   CATOOSA            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE AND ONE POWER LINE DOWN.

0336 PM     HAIL             RINGGOLD                34.92N 85.11W
06/24/2011  E0.88 INCH       CATOOSA            GA   PUBLIC

0343 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N CHICKAMAUGA         34.89N 85.29W
06/24/2011                   WALKER             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE POWER LINE DOWN. THREE TREES DOWN.

0432 PM     LIGHTNING        DALTON                  34.77N 84.97W
06/24/2011                   WHITFIELD          GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STRUCTURAL FIRE ON BEAVERDALE ROAD IN DALTON STARTED BY
            LIGHTNING.

0555 PM     HAIL             LINDALE                 34.19N 85.17W
06/24/2011  E0.75 INCH       FLOYD              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

0625 PM     HAIL             ATLANTA                 33.75N 84.39W
06/24/2011  E0.75 INCH       FULTON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GEORGIA TECH EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS PENNY-SIZED HAIL
            ON THE GEORGIA TECH CAMPUS.

0738 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARROLLTON              33.58N 85.08W
06/24/2011                   CARROLL            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            6-10 TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE.

&&

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
848 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

GAZ053>058-066>068-250130-
848 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN TROUP...SPALDING...
PIKE...MERIWETHER...BUTTS...COWETA...FAYETTE...HENRY AND CLAYTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 843 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM JONESBORO TO GRIFFIN...BROOKS...SENOIA...
ALVATON AND LAGRANGE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS TROUP...SPALDING...PIKE...MERIWETHER...BUTTS...COWETA...
FAYETTE...HENRY AND CLAYTON COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE KENWOOD...
LUTHERSVILLE...LONE OAK...STATE LINE PARK...HILLCREST...
ABBOTTSFORD...WARES CROSSROADS...HARRISONVILLE...HOGANSVILLE...
BIRDIE...TOWALAGA...VAUGHN...DIGBEY...SUNNY SIDE AND ATLANTA MOTOR
SPEEDWAY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED FOR WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...
HAIL LESS THAN THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3311 8522 3318 8510 3322 8495 3326 8494
      3339 8471 3351 8462 3355 8446 3359 8446
      3348 8395 3337 8386 3325 8381 3318 8382
      3320 8386 3319 8424 3304 8425 3299 8442
      3299 8448 3296 8453 3290 8474 3300 8522
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 285DEG 26KT 3352 8436 3333 8416
          3304 8515

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
902 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

GAZ067-069>071-079-250145-
902 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN TALBOT...
MONROE...MERIWETHER...LAMAR AND UPSON COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

AT 857 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST OF ORCHARD HILL TO CONCORD TO
NORTHWEST OF WARM SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS TALBOT...MONROE...MERIWETHER...LAMAR AND UPSON COUNTIES
THROUGH 945 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS
INCLUDE ATWATER...CREST...MILNER...WARM SPRINGS...PIEDMONT...FLINT
HILL...HANNAHS MILL...THE ROCK...LIBERTY HILL...ALDORA...
MANCHESTER...ROWLAND...SUNNYSIDE...SPREWELL BLUFF STATE PARK AND
CHAPPEL MILL. WINDS WILL BE BEGIN TO GUST WELL AHEAD OF THE HEAVY
RAIN IN SOME AREAS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED FOR WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...
HAIL LESS THAN THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3290 8475 3295 8454 3300 8448 3299 8427
      3308 8424 3319 8425 3318 8383 3286 8387
      3285 8412 3281 8412 3280 8415 3270 8420
      3274 8424 3275 8429 3272 8434 3268 8434
      3259 8443 3281 8470
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 314DEG 27KT 3335 8417 3306 8432
          3295 8462 3294 8472

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
906 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

GAZ060-061-072>076-084-085-250145-
906 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN WASHINGTON...
PUTNAM...JONES...JOHNSON...WILKINSON...BALDWIN...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK
AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

AT 901 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND AVERA TO DEEPSTEP AND GRAY...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WASHINGTON...PUTNAM...JONES...JOHNSON...WILKINSON...BALDWIN...
GLASCOCK...HANCOCK AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE STAPLETON...AVERA...
HAMBURG STATE PARK...WARTHEN...DEEPSTEP...ALLENWOOD...HARDWICK...
SCOTTSBORO...UNDERWOOD...PANCRAS...COOPERS...BROWNS CROSSING...
MILLEDGEVILLE...MOUNTAIN SPRINGS AND POSTELL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED FOR WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...
HAIL LESS THAN THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3308 8228 3293 8227 3284 8231 3281 8242
      3277 8241 3282 8252 3277 8276 3281 8282
      3260 8318 3289 8340 3287 8348 3297 8359
      3310 8352 3318 8342 3315 8311 3327 8269
      3333 8258 3327 8243 3331 8234 3323 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 317DEG 24KT 3317 8247 3297 8297
          3291 8341

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