Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
358 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN
ON BACK SIDE OF DEEP UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND EAST
SIDE OF INTENSE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER TX. A SERIES OF EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION AND IMPINGE ON A VERY
MOIST...UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WAS TRACKING ACROSS MIDDLE/EASTERN TN THIS
AFTERNOON AND A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALREADY
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ESE FROM THIS AREA ACROSS N GA INTO NC/SC. WRF/HRR CONVECTIVE MODELS
AND GFS/ECMWF LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD DURING THE EVENING TOWARD ATL-AHN
AND THEN TOWARD CSG-MCN BY 06Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. AN EVEN MORE
POTENT DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT IN THE MODELS FOR SAT...WITH GOOD
INDICATION OF A POTENTIAL MCS TYPE EVENT...SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SAW
LAST WEEK. ECMWF/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN AN MCS ENTERING NW GA
BEFORE 18Z SAT...TRACKING SE TOWARD ATL-CSG IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FOR
SUN...YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRACKS AROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THIS TIME MORE INTO NE/EC GA...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
ATTEMPTS TO DIMINISH ACTIVITY IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE STATE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...EXPECT GOOD CHC DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

MAX/MIN TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH WITH NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS
EXPECTED. MAV/MET BLEND BEST OPTION AS NO CONSISTENCY FROM
RUN-TO-RUN AS TO WHICH MODEL DOES BETTER. OVERALL...THE MET MOS HAS
BEEN SLIGHTLY BETTER FOR MIN TEMPS THE PAST FEW CYCLES...WHILE THE
MAV MOS HAS DONE SLIGHTLY BETTER FOR MAX TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIODS. THE
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM...BUT NEVER FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO COMPLETELY SHUT OFF THE POTENTIAL FOR NW FLOW THUNDERSTORMS AND
POSSIBLE MCS ACTIVITY. THUS...THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
CONVECTIVE CONVERGE...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS MON-TUE...BUT
BY NO MEANS A CLEAR SIGNAL THAT POPS CAN BE DROPPED BELOW
MENTIONABLE VALUES ANYWHERE. DURING THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE
EXTENDED...THE UPPER RIDGE RETREATS WEST...SO OUR REGION IS ONCE
AGAIN PLACED IN AN ACTIVE NW FLOW REGIME. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE
HINTS OF AN EASTERLY WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO
THE SE U.S. AND REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION.
OVERALL...EXPECTED A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN HOT AND HUMID WITH NO APPRECIABLE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE EXPECTED AS INDICATED IN THE LATEST MEX MOS.

19
&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA. CONVECTIVE MODELS SHOWING STORMS
HOLDING TOGETHER AND PUSHING INTO ATL TAF SITES BETWEEN 22-00Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 5KTS...
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS...CIGS...VISIBILITIES.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION/WEATHER.

12
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  95  66  96 /  50  30  30  40
ATLANTA         73  91  71  94 /  50  60  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     66  87  65  89 /  30  30  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    72  92  65  94 /  50  50  30  40
COLUMBUS        73  93  72  96 /  40  60  50  40
GAINESVILLE     72  92  68  93 /  50  50  30  40
MACON           72  95  69  98 /  40  60  50  40
ROME            70  93  67  95 /  50  50  30  40
PEACHTREE CITY  70  92  64  94 /  50  60  40  40
VIDALIA         73  95  75  98 /  30  20  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...
LUMPKIN...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...
SOUTH FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

19/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
300 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-251900-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
300 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE IN NORTH GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTH
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DISCUSSION...
DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1500 TO
2000 WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO NEAR -4.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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