Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
251 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

LATEST WIDE ANGLE VIEW OF THE MSAS ANALYSIS OF THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE UNTIED STATES SHOWS A DEEP EARLY SUMMER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS A LARGE AND SPRAWLING SYSTEM
WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED WEAK SURFACE HIGH WELL SOUTHWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA. THIS HAS LEFT THE STATE WITHIN TWO
REGIMES...ONE INFLUENCED BY AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER
ENERGY PROMOTING WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GA. ELSEWHERE...VESTIGES OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES AND SHOULD SHUNT
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY NORTHWARD IN THE VERY SHORT TERM.

WITH AFOREMENTIONED SETUP...A SHARP GRADIENT TO POPS IS REQUIRED
AND INHERITED FORECAST INITIALIZES THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST
NICELY. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT NEEDED FROM THE OUTSET IS TO SHIFT THE
ZONE OF CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTHWARD BASED ON LATEST TRENDS OF AN
ORGANIZED LINE EMANATING OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THUS
FAR...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FEEDING OFF A ZONE OF ENHANCED MIXED LAYER
CAPE...BUT ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...MODEST FOR
THIS TIME YEAR. THEREFORE...SYNOPTIC LIFT IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY BUT LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY IS THUS FAR LIMITING
ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF
IMMINENT RAINFALL AS TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST ESPECIALLY HAVE
ALREADY SURPASSED AFTERNOON HIGH PROJECTIONS OF THE MODELS BY 3 TO
5 DEGREES. THIS SHOULD ADD INSTABILITY TO THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION. AS FAR AS
WIND SHEAR IS CONCERNED...HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA BUT SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE GA/TN BORDER AND WILL BEAR WATCHING AS CONVECTIVE
PROCESSES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL ANTICIPATE WINDS AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT HAIL TO BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE AXIS SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. SHOULD SEE JUST
ENOUGH CLEARING FOR THU MORNING TO ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH GA. AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TREK
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERN SOLUTION FOR
HIGHEST POPS (60 PERCENT) FROM ATL SOUTHWARD.

WILL BE IN A BONAFIDE FULL SCALE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH BY FRIDAY
BUT MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSPORT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE DECREASING ALLOWING FOR FEWER
STORMS. THAT SAID...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL GIVEN INCREASED MID LEVEL SHEAR AND TEMPS AT 500 MB
DECREASING TO -10C.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...VARIOUS SHORTWAVES TO
DIVE IN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE...THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH ARRIVES MONDAY. RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN BY
TUESDAY WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND WARMING TEMPS. CURRENT
EXTENDED HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE TIMING OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BASED UPON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AROUND ATL WITH CONVECTION IN THE AREA BY
20Z. COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM OVER ATL BETWEEN 2Z AND 01Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
OVER FL. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LOWER CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING...FLIRTING WITH IFR CONDITIONS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTION AND VISIBILITY.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION TIMING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  88  71  92 /  50  30  20  40
ATLANTA         71  87  71  89 /  50  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     65  82  65  83 /  60  40  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    69  87  68  90 /  50  40  30  40
COLUMBUS        72  89  71  92 /  40  50  20  40
GAINESVILLE     70  86  69  89 /  60  40  30  40
MACON           74  90  71  94 /  30  50  20  30
ROME            69  88  69  91 /  50  40  30  40
PEACHTREE CITY  69  86  68  90 /  40  30  20  40
VIDALIA         76  92  73  93 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DEESE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1227 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-231630-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1227 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE SEVERE ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA WILL
KEEP A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AN AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND STRONG SHEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...INCLUDING
NORTHWEST GEORGIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HAMILTON TO WARRENTON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
351 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

GAZ031>033-043>046-053>057-222030-
351 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN SPALDING...ROCKDALE...PAULDING...COBB...COWETA...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...HENRY...CLAYTON AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
EDT...

AT 344 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND DALLAS TO MABLETON AND
FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PENNY SIZED HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS SPALDING...ROCKDALE...PAULDING...COBB...COWETA...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...HENRY...CLAYTON AND FULTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 430 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS
INCLUDE MARIETTA...ATLANTA...DECATUR...MCDONOUGH...GRIFFIN...
CONYERS...KENWOOD...TYRONE...DIGBEY...SANDTOWN...CAMPBELLTON...UNION
CITY...PALMETTO...FAIRBURN...FAYETTEVILLE...SANDY CREEK...BROOKS...
STARRS MILL...PEACHTREE CITY...CANNONGATE AND SENOIA. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED FOR WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...
HAIL LESS THAN THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3408 8483 3407 8442 3417 8435 3419 8426
      3411 8426 3405 8410 3399 8420 3400 8425
      3392 8426 3377 8407 3378 8398 3374 8392
      3365 8393 3352 8405 3345 8393 3319 8437
      3319 8449 3328 8465 3369 8491 3400 8496
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 237DEG 30KT 3400 8479 3385 8455
          3345 8440 3325 8442

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