Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
422 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PRIMARY CONCERN AGAIN IS CHC FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WED AND THURS.
STORMS HAVE MANAGED TO DODGE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...NO ONE SEEMS TO
BE COMPLAINING OTHER THAN THOSE WISHING FOR SOME RAIN. MODELS
STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST
REST OF THIS WEEK AND SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES WILL DIP INTO
ALL OF NORTH GA. EXPECT STORMS IN AL TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING BUT
STORMS FURTHER WEST TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE EAST INTO NW
GA AFTER SUNRISE. THIS SCENARIO DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS INCLUDING
12Z GFS/15Z SREF MEAN/12Z ECMWF. 12Z AND 18Z NAM STILL ODD MEN OUT
WITH NO INDICATION OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO THE WEST...ALTHOUGH
18Z NAM DOES FIRE IT UP IN THE MORNING OVER NW GA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP FOR LATE TONIGHT AND WED FOR NW 1/2 OF CWA. IF ENOUGH
CLOUDS AND PRECIP CAN COME THROUGH IN THE MORNING...THIS WOULD
DECREASE INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING AND HOPEFULLY JUST
GIVING US SOME NEEDED RAIN. IF CONVECTION AND CLOUDS DISSIPATE IN
THE MORNING...COULD BE IN FOR SOME REALLY ROUGH WEATHER AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE UNSEASONABLY STRONG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
STILL PROGGED AT 20-25KTS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...BUT AGAIN DEPENDS ON EVOLUTION OF OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
CONVECTION. FOR NOW...NAM THE ONLY MODEL REALLY SHOWING THIS. WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AS WAVE MOVES SLOWLY EAST THURS...FLOW ALOFT OVER GA BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY THAN SW AND A TAD WEAKER. MAY BE A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE
OF STORMS AS RIBBON OF DRIER AIR WRAPS IN FROM THE WEST OVER NORTH
GA. HAVE CONTINUED CHC POPS WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER ALL BUT FAR NORTH GA.

USED BIAS ADJUSTED MET GUIDANCE AND RECENT PERSISTENCE FOR MIN
TEMPS AND BIAS ADJUSTED MAV/MET FOR MAX TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL PROGGED BY MED RANGE MODELS TO REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. 12Z ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER
PUSHING IT OUT BUT VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN IT AND 12Z
GFS AND GEFS MEAN. SHOULD KEEP US IN FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS IN THE AFT/EVE WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS. MIN TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM. GOING FCST
LOOKS GOOD AS 12Z RUNS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN 00Z RUNS.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EXPECT SCT CU 4 TO 6 THSD FT TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS REST OF THE NIGHT.
SCT-BKN CU AROUND 4 THSD FT DEVELOPING AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH CIGS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN SCT SHOWERS
/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 16Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 KTS...DIMINISHING
TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER 02Z...THEN INCREASING INTO THE 10-15 KT
RANGE AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS

49

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  92  69  90 /  20  40  50  30
ATLANTA         75  87  71  87 /  20  70  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     68  81  66  84 /  20  80  60  40
CARTERSVILLE    70  87  68  88 /  30  80  50  40
COLUMBUS        75  93  72  90 /  20  40  40  40
GAINESVILLE     72  87  68  87 /  20  70  60  40
MACON           73  95  71  91 /  10  20  40  40
ROME            71  87  68  88 /  40  80  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  70  88  68  88 /  20  70  40  30
VIDALIA         76  97  74  92 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

13

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