Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
522 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTH CENTRAL GA... AND CURRENTLY
LIES EAST OF DALTON. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITIES
COUPLED WITH DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
MUCH OF NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND A 40-50KT MID LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH THE GREATER THREAT NOW GENERALLY NORTH
OF A CARROLLTON TO ATLANTA TO HOMER LINE... WHERE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. AREAS IN
AND AROUND THE WATCH COULD SEE DAMAGING WIND OF 60 MPH OR GREATER
AND LARGE HAIL FROM A FEW STRONG STORMS. THE SEVERE STORM THREAT
WILL GREATLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING (9-10PM) WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MID-LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO CENTRAL GA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DRIER WNW FLOW IN ITS WAKE. MODELS
SUGGEST THIS FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL GA LATE THURSDAY...AND
POSSIBLY PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION...HAVE BLANKETED THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THESE PERIODS. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MAV LOWS AND MET HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SETTLES IN OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND REMAINS A CONVECTIVE LIMITING INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. IT APPEARS THE EASTERN ZONES THAT LIE
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAVE THE SLIGHTLY
GREATER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ALL ZONES FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED EACH DAY AS A STORM COULD POP JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011/
18Z UPDATE...
BIGGEST CHALLENGE WITH THIS ISSUANCE IS TIMING OF CONVECTION AND
WIND. ALREADY CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND EXPECT TSTMS
TO MOVE INTO ATL METRO AREA AROUND 22Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
TIMING BUT OVERALL IT SHOULD BE AN EVENING INTO THE NIGHT EVENT.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN TEMPO IN THE MCN AND CSG TAFS SO
WENT WITH CB FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE VRB THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SW
COMPONENT..THEN VRB AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WIND GUSTS IN
THE THUNDERSTORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH
CIGS AND VSBYS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
CONVECTION AND WIND DIRECTION.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  92  66  95 /  50  20  20  20
ATLANTA         71  93  72  93 /  50  20  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     62  87  58  87 /  60  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    65  93  65  93 /  60  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        73  96  71  95 /  40  20  20  20
GAINESVILLE     68  91  69  92 /  50  20  20  20
MACON           70  94  69  95 /  40  20  20  20
ROME            66  93  65  93 /  60  20  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  66  93  67  94 /  50  20  20  20
VIDALIA         72  95  72  97 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...
UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1255 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-161100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1255 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION AS
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA WILL DRIFT BACK NORTH INTO NORTH GEORGIA TODAY.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING QUARTER-SIZED HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA AROUND 1 PM EDT...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST REACHING
ATLANTA AROUND 6 PM EDT AND MACON BY 10 PM EDT. THE MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM CEDARTOWN...TO
ALPHARETTA...TO GAINESVILLE BETWEEN 1 PM AND 10 PM EDT.

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE...EMBEDDED WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
UNUSUALLY STRONG SHEAR FOR MID-JUNE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. BY
EVENING...35 TO 40 KNOTS OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE STATE. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL
INTO THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S...CAPE VALUES
WILL EXCEED 3000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
GEORGIA BY LATE AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDICES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS -8
IN THIS SAME REGION. THIS COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND
MIDDLE GEORGIA EARLY THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF MIDDLE GEORGIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION AFTER 3 PM EDT...AND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
AFTER 7 PM EDT TODAY. SPOTTERS CAN ALSO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER ONLINE AT WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
438 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             LAFAYETTE               34.71N 85.28W
06/15/2011  E0.75 INCH       WALKER             GA   PUBLIC

&&

RGARCIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
508 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

GAZ019-020-030-152145-
508 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN POLK...BARTOW AND FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 500 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CAVE SPRING...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3434 8494 3408 8491 3408 8492 3396 8497
      3395 8502 3395 8505 3394 8505 3392 8516
      3409 8543 3427 8546
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 267DEG 30KT 3415 8523

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
516 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

GAZ005-007-152200-
516 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN MURRAY AND GILMER COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 510 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH GEORGIA SPEEDWAY...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3464 8440 3462 8491 3468 8494 3467 8489
      3471 8494 3471 8486 3473 8487 3475 8485
      3479 8487 3480 8484 3481 8486 3485 8454
      3485 8442
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 263DEG 25KT 3472 8485

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
517 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

GAZ020-021-152200-
517 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN BARTOW AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 510 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SUTALLEE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3426 8425 3419 8426 3419 8433 3417 8436
      3416 8469 3434 8470 3438 8441 3437 8440
      3438 8439 3438 8427
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 263DEG 23KT 3425 8462

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
532 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

GAZ031-032-152215-
532 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH
WINDS IN PAULDING AND COBB COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 526 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BURNT HICKORY RIDGE...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 8497 3408 8492 3408 8451 3390 8449
      3389 8498 3395 8499
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 265DEG 24KT 3399 8488

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
533 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

GAZ007-013-014-152200-
533 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN PICKENS...
DAWSON AND GILMER COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 532 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TALKING ROCK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS PICKENS...
DAWSON AND GILMER COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE JASPER...TALKING ROCK...BLAINE...
ROUNDTOP...TALONA...LAKE TAMARACK...CARTECAY...SEQUOYAH LAKE...
MARION...FAUSETT LAKE...MCKEE...JUNO...LEN FOOTE HIKE INN...BLACK GAP
SHELTER AND SPRINGER MOUNTAIN SHELTER.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3463 8419 3454 8419 3448 8413 3445 8412
      3444 8458 3462 8460 3464 8420
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 265DEG 27KT 3454 8447