Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 AM MST MON FEB 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF MORE DAYS. MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM SYSTEM. THE STORM WILL MOVE
THROUGH REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FALL WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. OTHER AREAS GENERALLY NORTH
AND EAST OF LAS CRUCES WILL SEE LIGHT OR TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH THE LOCAL AREA
BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PRESENT. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS A WINTER
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY BLOWING DUST MAY OCCUR OVER
DUST PRONE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN DESERTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN DROPPING THE
SYSTEM SOUTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN SHIFTING IT
RAPIDLY EASTWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK WILL LIMIT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO AREAS GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF LAS
CRUCES. BEST OVERALL CHANCE FOR SNOW WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS BUT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THAT ZONE. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID DAY WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. OTHER ZONES SUCH AS THE TULAROSA BASIN AND
SIERRA AND GRANT COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

ANOTHER FEATURE OF THIS WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WHILE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS LAST WEEK'S ARCTIC FRONT..AS MUCH AS
20 TO 25 DEGREES OF COOLING MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AFTERWARD. A
WARMING TREND WILL GRADUALLY OCCUR THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 07/12Z-08/12Z...
VFR CONDS THRU THE VALID PD WITH SKC-SKC250. SFC WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL
BE STRONGER ALONG HIGHER MTNS TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY TODAY AND TOMORROW IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM SYSTEM. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG BORDER REGION ZONES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES MAY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS BEING MET
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN DESERT ZONES. WINTER STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY ZONES NORTH AND
EAST OF LAS CRUCES. BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL GREATLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND UNDER WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 54  33  69  28  45 /   0   0   0  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA TX        52  30  60  25  40 /   0   0   0  10  20
LAS CRUCES              54  30  65  24  45 /   0   0   0  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              50  30  59  15  37 /   0   0  10  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              36  24  42   9  28 /   0   0  10  50  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   50  29  58  20  43 /   0   0  10  20  20
SILVER CITY             52  28  59  21  41 /   0   0  10  20  10
DEMING                  56  26  65  27  48 /   0   0   0  20  10
LORDSBURG               58  29  68  29  51 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NMZ025.

TX...NONE.
&&

04/04

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