Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS El Paso, TX

366 
WWUS54 KEPZ 230055
SVSEPZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
655 PM MDT THU SEP 22 2011

NMC013-230104-
/O.CAN.KEPZ.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-110923T0115Z/
DONA ANA NM-
655 PM MDT THU SEP 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL DONA ANA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST IN SOME LOCATIONS IS 
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3220 10656 3210 10660 3212 10677 3215 10689
      3244 10680 3238 10661 3237 10651
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 014DEG 9KT 3211 10671

$$

TRIPOLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
226 PM MDT THU SEP 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE WARM MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS TODAY WITH BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY CAPES RANGE AROUND
600 TO 1200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER .8 INCH.
WHILE FRONT WILL WEAKEN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
INITIATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 50 INDICATE A FEW SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS POSSIBLE. STORMS FORMING IN AREAS OF HIGHER CAPES MAY
ALSO PRODUCE NEAR SEVERE HAIL.

NARROW BUT HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE BRINGING  WARM DRY WEATHER. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS THEN FORECASTED TO UNDERCUT RIDGE AND MOVE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DPVA AHEAD OF
SYSTEM WILL INDUCE DYNAMIC UPWARD MOTION BUT ZONAL/WESTERLY  FLOW
WILL ALSO TRANSPORT DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR ACROSS THE CWA. THUS
ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

INTERESTING AND CHALLENGING SITUATION EVOLVES MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS GFS MOVES WEAK BUT BROAD CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA WITH CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR EL PASO EARLY TUESDAY.
SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN DYNAMIC LIFT AND SOME COOLING
ALOFT ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO TRANSPORT DRY CONTINENTAL AIR AT MID LEVELS INTO THE CWA. IN
ADDITION SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL GENERATE WESTERLY
FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL ALSO ADVECT DRY AIR. THUS
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ONLY BE AROUND .5 INCH WITH CAPES ONLY
SLIGHTLY POSITIVE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. FOR THESE REASONS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z-24/00Z.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN THURSDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH
VSBY P6SM AND FEW100-150 SCT250. EXPECT MVFR  CONDITIONS NEAR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH 1-3SM TSRAGS AND SCT BLO BKN-OVC060-100. WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY TSTM. DRIER WILL
LESS ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY O/NR MTNS.

&&

.FIRE DISCUSSION...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST
TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY AT TIMES ON WEST SLOPES AND PASSES AND CANYONS. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL REBUILD OVER NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK STARTING ON SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY WEST WINDS AND A
FEW ISOLATED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE MIN RH FIELD WILL
RUN 15% TO 20% WEST OF THE RIO GRADE THIS AFTERNOON AND 20% TO 30%
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE EXCEPT NEAR 50% IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 18% TO 23% ALL AREAS
EXCEPT NEAR 35% IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THE HAINES INDEX WILL
BE GENERALLY 3 EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND 4 TO 5 WEST TODAY
AND 3 OVER MOST AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 61  87  63  91  66 /  20   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        53  83  57  88  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              59  87  60  91  62 /  20   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              56  85  56  89  60 /  20   0   0  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              42  64  42  67  44 /  20  10  10  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   57  85  58  89  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             53  79  54  81  56 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEMING                  59  86  60  90  62 /  20   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               61  87  60  90  62 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1135 AM MDT THU SEP 22 2011

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-231730-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1135 AM MDT THU SEP 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR FLOODING
TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND THIS OFFICE.

ROGASH