Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS El Paso, TX

937 
WWUS54 KEPZ 212239
SVSEPZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
439 PM MDT WED SEP 21 2011

TXC229-212249-
/O.CAN.KEPZ.SV.W.0074.000000T0000Z-110921T2300Z/
HUDSPETH TX-
439 PM MDT WED SEP 21 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH 
THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3083 10491 3076 10491 3081 10511 3096 10519
      3119 10513 3115 10490 3084 10490
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 268DEG 6KT 3105 10499

$$

HARDIMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
333 PM MDT WED SEP 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WARM MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED INTO THE CWA TODAY AND HAS BECOME
ALMOST STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT WILL INITIATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AS AFTERNOON CAPES RANGE FROM AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG WEST AND
MIDDLE AND FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG EAST. WIND SPEED SHEAR IS RATHER
WEAK AS 500 MB FLOW IS ONLY AROUND 10 KT FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS PROVIDING ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO
BRING SOME STORM ENHANCEMENT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 50
INDICATE ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE NEAR SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. IN
ADDITION IN AREAS OF HIGHER CAPES LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY WHERE CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG. REMNANTS OF FRONT
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR ENTERS THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AGAIN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AREAS OF CONVECTION AS CAPES TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND 500
TO 1000 J/KG.

STRONG RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON A NORTH SOUTH AXIS THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THIS FEATURE PRODUCING
SEASONABLY WARM MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY MODELS INDICATE A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
FROM THE WEST WITH SOME ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC UPWARD FORCING
OCCURRING. DESPITE THIS THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED WITH PRECIPITABLE UNDER.8 AND SLIGHTLY POSITIVE CAPES OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. THUS MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/00Z-23/00Z.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN THURSDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
WITH VSBY P6SM AND FEW100-150 SCT250. EXPECT MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
NEAR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH 1-3SM TSRAGS AND SCT BLO BKN-OVC060-100.
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY TSTM.

&&

.FIRE DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE OUT OF SONORA AND
TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FROM THE
BOOTHEEL INTO THE GILA AND EAST INTO LUNA COUNTY. SCATTERED STORMS
ARE ALSO LIKELY IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...BUT THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTEROON AND NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW MEXICO BEHIND THAT TROUGH
WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TOMORRROW...THEN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY. HUMIDITY AROUND 10 PCT HIGHER ACROSS
THE GILA AND THE SACS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST COULD BRING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 65  89  63  88  63 /  20  20  20  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA TX        59  84  57  82  57 /  20  20  20  10  10
LAS CRUCES              62  88  60  87  60 /  20  20  20  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              58  85  56  83  56 /  30  20  20  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              43  67  41  66  41 /  30  30  30  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   60  87  58  85  58 /  20  10  20  10  10
SILVER CITY             56  80  54  77  54 /  20  20  20  10  10
DEMING                  62  89  60  86  60 /  20  20  20  10  10
LORDSBURG               62  89  60  87  60 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

05 ROGASH/21 PARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1205 AM MDT WED SEP 21 2011

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-221730-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1205 AM MDT WED SEP 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR FLOODING
TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND THIS OFFICE.

ROGASH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
246 PM MDT WED SEP 21 2011

TXZ056-212145-
HUDSPETH TX-
246 PM MDT WED SEP 21 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THREATENING SOUTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTY THROUGH
345 PM MDT...

AT 239 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST NORTH OF SIERRA BLANCA...MOVING EAST AT 5
MPH.  OTHER STORMS WERE LINED UP JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

DUE TO A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...MICROBURST
WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS STORM...REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO DANGEROUS LEVELS ON AREA ROADWAYS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SIERRA BLANCA...
  ALLAMOORE...
  MCNARY...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HARDIMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
348 PM MDT WED SEP 21 2011

NMZ024-032-TXZ055-212245-
EL PASO TX-SOUTHERN DESERT NM-TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT NM-
348 PM MDT WED SEP 21 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...

AT 345 PM MDT...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM
NEAR SIERRA BLANCA IN HUDSPETH COUNTY...INTO PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHEAST EL PASO COUNTY.  MEANWHILE...A RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.  THIS ENVIRONMENT FAVORS
STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS FROM RELATIVELY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE EL PASO METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH... POSSIBLY
WITH LITTLE ADVANCE WARNING.

PERSONS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY THIS EVENING...AND BE AWARE OF
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUDDEN STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OTHERWISE MAY NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY STRONG.

HARDIMAN