Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS El Paso, TX

688 
WWUS54 KEPZ 122324
SVSEPZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
524 PM MDT FRI AUG 12 2011

NMC017-122345-
/O.CON.KEPZ.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-110812T2345Z/
GRANT NM-
524 PM MDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
GRANT COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

AT 522 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A 
CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE 
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE 
LOCATED FROM NEAR BUCKHORN TO EAST OF GILA...AND WERE NEARLY 
STATIONARY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BUCKHORN...
  RIVERSIDE...
  GILA...
  CLIFF...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OF AT LEAST 58 MPH...
HAIL ONE INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY DEADLY
LIGHTNING. TAKE SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING NOW.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3313 10873 3313 10866 3305 10840 3287 10843
      3286 10867 3289 10884
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 068DEG 8KT 3299 10868

$$

HARDIMAN

537 
WWUS54 KEPZ 122350
SVSEPZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
550 PM MDT FRI AUG 12 2011

NMC017-122358-
/O.EXP.KEPZ.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-110812T2345Z/
GRANT NM-
550 PM MDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3313 10873 3313 10866 3305 10840 3287 10843
      3286 10867 3289 10884
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 068DEG 8KT 3299 10868

$$

HARDIMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
244 PM MDT FRI AUG 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER NEW MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN TOWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN OCCURRENCE AND LESS RISK OF
FLOODING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH LACK OF DEFINED CENTER...COVERING
MUCH OF TEXAS OVER TO ARIZONA. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE PLUME COVERING
MUCH OF THIS SAME REGION. GOES SOUNDER SHOWING PW'S RANGING FROM
ABOUT 1.2 - 1.4 INCHES. SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...AS USUAL...WERE THE
FIRST AREA TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE GILA/BLACK
RANGE ARE JUST BEGINNING TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
AREA ALONG WITH MOST OF THE WESTERN CWA WEST OF DEMING ARE MORE
STABLE TODAY DUE TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT
AND THE ATTENDANT DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS MORNING SLOW TO BURN OFF. NAM12
CONVERGENCE FIELD DEPICTED FROM THE SACS DOWN TO THE WESTERN BIG
BEND...AND EARLY CONVECTION CONFIRMS THIS. ELSEWHERE MODELS SHOW AN
UPPER LOW ORGANIZING TONIGHT JUST EAST OF THE BIG BEND. NOT READILY
APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW FEATURE AND MOVE
THE LOW WEST AS AN INVERTED TROUGH...OVER FAR SOUTHERN BIG BEND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF EL PASO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT...THOUGH HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES
TO GRID FIELDS. TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO REMAIN QUITE MOIST
AND HENCE EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. MODELS SHOWING
PW'S OF 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. COMBINED WITH SLOW
UPPER FLOW...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE A POTENTIAL HAZARD.
ONLY DIFFERENCE IN THIS MORNING'S MODEL RUNS FROM YESTERDAY IS
SLOWING DOWN TRANSITION BACK TO DRIER REGIME. YESTERDAY THIS DAY WAS
SUNDAY AND NOW IT LOOKS MORE LIKE MONDAY...AS GFS SHOWS UPPER HIGH
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO
BY MONDAY AND BEYOND. THIS WILL THIS THE MOISTURE PLUME OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY AND DIMINISH THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO ISOLATED CATEGORY.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PW'S ARE PROGGED BE DOWN AS LOW .5 INCHES
IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 1.1 INCHES IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 13/00Z-14/00Z.
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT AREAS OF SCT-BKN040-070 BKN-OVC090-120 AND VSBY
1/2-2SM TSRA. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE DISCUSSION...
DIFFUSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REACHES FROM TEXAS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
ARIZONA INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH THE
VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE VERY MOIST AIR AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND THE CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THAT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MAY STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS. MINIMUM HUMIDITY FROM
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VERY LOW (2 OR 3)
HAINES INDICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  96  74  93  73 /  30  30  30  20  30
SIERRA BLANCA TX        69  93  69  92  68 /  30  20  30  20  20
LAS CRUCES              72  96  71  93  70 /  30  30  30  20  30
ALAMOGORDO              68  92  68  90  67 /  30  30  40  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              52  70  50  68  49 /  30  40  40  30  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   69  93  69  91  68 /  30  30  40  30  30
SILVER CITY             62  86  62  82  61 /  30  40  40  30  30
DEMING                  70  94  70  92  69 /  30  30  30  30  30
LORDSBURG               70  95  70  92  69 /  30  30  40  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HEFNER/PARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1105 AM MDT FRI AUG 12 2011

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-131715-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1105 AM MDT FRI AUG 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALL AREAS TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE. MOSTLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR FLOODING
TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND THIS OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
428 PM MDT FRI AUG 12 2011

NMZ022-122315-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION NM-
428 PM MDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY...

AT 423 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A NEARLY STATIONARY STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF SILVER
CITY. OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING AREAS NEAR LAKE
ROBERTS AND GILA HOT SPRINGS.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORM NORTH OF SILVER CITY...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE GILA
REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR.  ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL.

TORRENTIAL RAIN MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED ROADWAY.

HARDIMAN