Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS El Paso, TX

361 
WWUS54 KEPZ 292113
SVSEPZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
313 PM MDT FRI JUL 29 2011

NMC035-292120-
/O.CAN.KEPZ.SV.W.0035.000000T0000Z-110729T2130Z/
OTERO NM-
313 PM MDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS RAPIDLY MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA. WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 50 MPH WERE ESTIMATED BY A 
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER AT OROGRANDE NEW MEXICO LOCATED ABOUT 12 MILES 
NORTH OF THE STORM.

LAT...LON 3229 10636 3251 10623 3241 10600 3208 10602
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 096DEG 12KT 3226 10624

$$

NOVLAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
235 PM MDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HELPING TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PROCESS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DON WILL MOVE MAINLY
TO THE SOUTH AND TARGET THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL ON SUNDAY...
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THAT AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NEW MEXICO BY MONDAY BRINGING HOTTER
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE EPZ CWA GOT
WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION LATE YESTERDAY...INCLUDING AN MCS THAT
FORMED OVER EL PASO COUNTY AND MOVED WEST. AS A RESULT...HUDPSETH
COUNTY AND EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY HEATED UP THE QUICKEST AND
REGISTERED THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY. AS THE REST OF THE AREA
RECOVERS CONVECTIVE CELLS SHOULD FIRE UP ALMOST ANYWHERE...
ESPECIALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE EAST. THE WESTERN SECTION MAY TAKE A WHILE...BUT THEY
WILL GET THEIRS. SOME DRYING ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS.

ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO AZ BORDER WHICH WILL BE
NEAR THE DEPARTING TROUGH...AND SOUTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTY AS THE
REMNANTS OF TS DON APPROACH. THE 12Z NAM/GFS TAKE THESE REMNANTS
SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR THE NM
BOOTHEEL WHICH LIES IN THE PATH. HIDALGO AND WESTERN LUNA COUNTIES
COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS ELSEWHERE.

BY MONDAY AN OLD FRIEND (ENEMY?) REAPPEARS AND TAKES RESIDENCE
OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING ALOFT
UNDER THIS UPPER HIGH WILL TRY TO OFFSET INCREASED SURFACE HEATING
AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY. AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE EAST...BUT THIS TIME WITH LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SHOULD SEE MORE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS IN THE
LOWLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/00Z-31/00Z.
MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS/VSBY. GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STORMS. EXPECT VSBY <2SM TSRAGS
WITH SCT-BKN050-080 SCT-BKN120-150 AND SCT-BKN200-250. WIND VCNTY
TSTMS VRB25G45KT.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR HIGH TERRAIN AND AREAS
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING A SLOT
OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL TEND
TO SUPPRESS AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ...BUT WILL NOT PREVENT THEM. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN. EASTERN LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY HAVE FEWER THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...AND THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM DON WILL ENTER THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM NEW
MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY...BRINGING DRIER AIR AND
POSSIBLY A DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 72  94  73  93  73 /  30  20  30  40  20
SIERRA BLANCA TX        70  94  69  90  69 /  20  20  30  40  20
LAS CRUCES              70  93  71  92  71 /  30  20  30  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              69  94  68  92  68 /  30  20  30  40  20
CLOUDCROFT              49  71  48  69  47 /  30  40  40  50  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   69  92  68  90  68 /  30  30  30  30  30
SILVER CITY             61  84  60  82  60 /  30  30  40  40  40
DEMING                  70  93  69  91  69 /  30  30  30  30  30
LORDSBURG               69  93  69  92  69 /  40  30  40  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

01 FAUSETT/21 PARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1140 AM MDT FRI JUL 29 2011

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-301745-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1140 AM MDT FRI JUL 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTH OF A LAS CRUCES
TO SILVER CITY LINE ARE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AND THUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GET A LATER START. STORMS WILL BE STRONGEST EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE WITH BETTER SURFACE HEATING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS...AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AREAS THAT DO NOT
RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. THE APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM DON MAY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHERN HUDPSETH COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

ON SUNDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DON ARE PROJECTED TO
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF HUDSPETH AND EL PASO COUNTIES BEFORE CROSSING
THE NM BOOT HEEL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH NUMEROUS STORMS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE IN HIDALGO...WESTERN LUNA AND SOUTHERN GRANT
COUNTIES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE AREA WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE REDUCED TO ISOLATED...EXCEPT
SCATTERED NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER. ON THURSDAY THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD CALL IN REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

FAUSETT