Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
256 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REDUCTION IN
MOISTURE WILL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WILL REDUCE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO ISOLATED FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT BACK WEST OF THE AREA
BY LATE SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH A THE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND A WEST COAST TROUGH
DEEPENING...THE PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN OVER ARIZONA IS
NOW SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
DEEPEST ON TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO NEAR
170 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THAT INDICATES THAT ANY STORMS THAT FORM
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE RUN OFF FROM HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES AND LOW LYING AREAS. IN
ISOLATED CASES WHERE RAIN AMOUNTS ARE MUCH HIGHER...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MIGHT OCCUR.

BY THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO REFORM CLOSER BACK TO THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS CHANGE WILL START TO DIMINISH THE FLOW OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND REDUCE THE FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. MAINLY ISOLATED
LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FOR THE LOWLANDS.

BY SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
STATE WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN SET UP OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS FLOW WILL TAP MAINLY DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR WHICH WILL FURTHER
REDUCE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND DIMINISH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO NEAR ZERO EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAIN ZONES FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 12/00Z-13/00Z...
PREVAILING SCT080-150 BKN250 CAN BE EXPECTED THRU PD WITH SE
WINDS 6-12KTS. SCT TSRA WITH BKN040-060 WILL LINGER UNTIL 08Z AND
START AGAIN AFT 17Z...WDLY SCT TO SCT 3-5SM TSRA BKN040-060
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS A BROAD UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TODAY...AND ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO
MOVES INTO THE AREA...CARRYING ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
IT.  LATER IN THE WEEK...A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL SHIFT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTWARD...AND WHILE THE OVERALL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DECREASE...THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL FAVOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE RESULT WILL BE
INCREASING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  94  75  94  75 /  40  40  50  40  40
SIERRA BLANCA TX        70  91  70  91  70 /  40  40  50  40  40
LAS CRUCES              72  93  72  94  72 /  40  40  50  40  40
ALAMOGORDO              70  91  70  90  70 /  40  40  50  40  40
CLOUDCROFT              52  70  52  69  52 /  50  50  50  50  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  91  70  93  70 /  40  50  50  40  40
SILVER CITY             62  82  62  87  62 /  50  60  50  40  30
DEMING                  71  91  71  94  71 /  40  40  50  30  40
LORDSBURG               70  91  70  93  70 /  40  40  40  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

04/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1100 AM MDT MON JUL 11 2011

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-121700-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1100 AM MDT MON JUL 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWLANDS.
A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG
DRAINAGES. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. WITH MOIST CONDITIONS IN PLACE...STORMS MAY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP WELL PAST MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE
FROM STRONGER STORMS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH MAINLY ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR FLOODING
TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND THIS OFFICE.

LUNDEEN