Red Flag Warning 57, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
412 AM MDT MON JUN 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
ABOUT LAS CRUCES EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHILE FURTHER
WEST DRY AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN. AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
COULD AGAIN SEE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THAT
DRYING FROM THE WEST WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WEDNESDAY ON INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY HITTING TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ON THE LARGE PICTURE UPPER RIDGE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN. FAIRLY DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT
RESIDED AT THE EASTERN MARGINS OF OUR CWA HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF
THE AREA AS UPPER HIGH CENTER IN THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO HAS
BEGUN TURNING THE UPPER WINDS SOUTHWEST. WV IMAGERY SHOWING LAST
NIGHT'S CONVECTION APPEARING TO BE CAUSED FROM SOME EASTERN PACIFIC
MOISTURE MOVING UP OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A SHORT WAVE...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS DAY'S CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES HAD ALSO HELPED.

FOR TODAY EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE FROM ABOUT LAS CRUCES
EAST. RECYCLED CONVECTIVE MOISTURE OVER THE SONORAN DESERT WILL
LIKELY MOVE BACK IN WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
LAST NIGHT'S OUTFLOW ADDED QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE ALMOST TO THE
ARIZONA BORDER. AS USUAL THOUGH...THIS MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW
AND WILL MIX OUT WITH OUR HEATING TODAY. ALSO MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING TODAY OUT WEST AND THIS SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF
OF THE CWA. DEW POINTS...WHILE NOT SPECTACULAR...WILL REMAIN HIGHER
IN THE EAST ALONG WITH MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS PARAMETERS.
EXPECT THE TYPICAL SACRAMENTO EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH
REMAINING AREAS LAS CRUCES EAST POSSIBLY SEEING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM OUTFLOW CONTINUE TO BE
MAIN HAZARD AS VERY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND MODERATE
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS SHOW WIND GUST POTENTIAL OF 50-60 MPH.

MODELS SHOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TO INCREASE ON
TUESDAY THOUGH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PERSIST...FROM ABOUT EL PASO EAST. SO LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED IN THAT
AREA. WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED AND SHOULD END ANY CONVECTIVE
THREAT...OTHER THAN POSSIBLY BRIEF AFTERNOON THREAT OVER THE SACS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AND EXPECT SCATTERED TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 06/12Z-07/12Z.
OVR OTERO COUNTY UNTIL ABT 14Z...SCT-BKN120 LAYERS TO 300 WITH ISOLD
-TSRA BKN100CB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DVLPG AFT 18Z OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...ISOLD 6SM -TSRA
BKN100CB TOPS 350...AND AFTER 22Z FROM LRU EAST...ISOLD 4SM -TSRA
BKN120CB TOPS 420. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. -TSRA ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFT 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONTINUED THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY LAS CRUCES EAST.
RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS ALL AREAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT OUTFLOW
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT AND ERODE FROM THE WEST TODAY...THOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGHER EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MIN RH'S
TODAY FAR WEST LOWLANDS/MOUNTAINS WILL DROP BACK TO SINGLE DIGITS/
LOWER TEENS...WHILE THE EASTERN LOWLANDS/MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOWER TEENS/LOWER 20S. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH
BASED WITH NOT MUCH RAINFALL...SO DRY LIGHTNING IS AGAIN A DANGER IN
THE EAST. ALSO OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH SOME
OF THESE STORMS. FIRE WATCH CONTINUES FOR ZONE 110...SHOULD BE
PLENTY DRY BUT WINDS WILL BE ON THE RIGHT ON THE CRITERIA LINE.
TUESDAY WILL STILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BEFORE DRIER AIRFLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PERIOD AND MIN RH'S ALL AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO 10% OR LESS. MANY OF THE AFTERNOONS WILL BE BREEZY TOO...BUT
SHOULD STAY BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 98  73  99  74 101 /  10  10   0  10   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        94  65  95  71 100 /  10  20  10  10  10
LAS CRUCES              97  67  98  67  99 /   0  10   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              93  64  97  68  99 /  10  20   0  10   0
CLOUDCROFT              74  50  76  48  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   96  64  95  65  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             86  56  89  57  89 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  96  65  97  64  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               97  65  97  64 100 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NMZ110.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ110.

TX...NONE.
&&

17 HEFNER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1114 AM MDT SUN JUN 5 2011

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-061715-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1114 AM MDT SUN JUN 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY...BUT FAVOR THE AREA ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AS WELL AS OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS GUSTING TO
50 TO 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE DESERT LOWLANDS. SMALL HAIL MAY
ALSO FALL IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE AND OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY A DRYING
TREND WILL BEGIN FROM THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...AND DRY ALL SECTIONS
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THIS OFFICE.

FAUSETT