Red Flag Warning 45, NWS El Paso, TX

982 
WWUS84 KEPZ 120323
RFWEPZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
923 PM MDT WED MAY 11 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

.WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS INCREASED ACROSS
THE REGION.

NMZ111>113-TXZ055-056-120430-
/O.EXP.KEPZ.FW.W.0045.000000T0000Z-110512T0300Z/
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS-
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
923 PM MDT WED MAY 11 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 055...056...
111...112 AND 113...

WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS INCREASED ACROSS
THE REGION.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
337 AM MDT WED MAY 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE STATE TODAY.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. A
COOLER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON AN EASTERLY TRACK
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY...EXITING BY EARLY EVENING.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DUE TO A CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
PREVIOUS DAYS. BLOWING DUST SHOULD BE LESS OF PROBLEM TODAY WITH
THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED MOVED THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH UPPER 70S PREDICTED FOR THE LOWLAND DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
ON THURSDAY..SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHTER UNDER THE RIDGE WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...SETTING UP A POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO
EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS PROJECT THAT ANY MOISTURE
THAT MAKES IT INTO THE REGION WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW ADDITIONAL CLOUDS FOR AREAS EAST OF EL
PASO. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WITH A
RETURN OF THE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 11/12Z-12/12Z...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE VALID PD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 AFT 18Z...DIMINISHING AFT 00Z.
MDT TURBULENCE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF AREA MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE TODAY....MAINTAINING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. WHILE MUCH LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY HUMIDITY
VALUES CONTINUE TO BE DOWN AROUND 10 PERCENT FOR LOWLAND AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY
BUT WILL STILL JUST EXCEED CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH LOWER WIND SPEEDS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH
LOW HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 76  57  82  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        75  54  80  58  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              76  51  82  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              74  50  80  54  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              52  37  58  39  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   73  48  80  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             64  43  73  47  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  74  50  81  55  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               73  49  81  54  84 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NMZ111>113.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ055-056.

&&

04/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
601 AM MDT WED MAY 11 2011

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-121215-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
601 AM MDT WED MAY 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS. NORTHWEST WIND
WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. BLOWING DUST NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NO
CHANCE FOR RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.