Red Flag Warning 41, NWS El Paso, TX

278 
WWUS84 KEPZ 031536 CCA
RFWEPZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
929 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2011

CORRECTED FOR EXPECTED WIND DIRECTION.

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF
NEW MEXICO TODAY...

.A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE WARM TEMPERATURES OVER ARIZONA WILL
RESULT IN LOWER PRESSURE TO THE WEST. BETWEEN THE TWO...A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP CLOSE TO THE ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO
BORDER...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER PORTIONS
OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE...A VERY DRY AIRMASS
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

NMZ111-040000-
/O.COR.KEPZ.FW.W.0041.110503T1700Z-110504T0000Z/
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS-
929 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 111...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS
MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...HIDALGO COUNTY/BOOTHEEL PORTION OF NM FIRE
  WEATHER ZONE 111.

* WIND...EAST TO SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 MPH AT THE 20-FOOT LEVEL WITH
  GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH. HIGHEST ALONG WEST-FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES
  AND OTHER TERRAIN FAVORED AREAS.

* HUMIDITY...5 TO 8 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

HARDIMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
506 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
STARTING TODAY WE WILL SEE A WARMING TREND. BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
BY THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. STILL NO SIGN OF ANY RAIN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE'LL WE ARE FINALLY GETTING A RESPITE FROM THE WINDS...BUT NOT
FROM THE DRY WEATHER. I HAD HOPED WE WERE SEEING A PATTERN CHANGE
TO A LESS WINDY...MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN...BUT THE CURRENT
EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THE WINDS WILL RETURN BY THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY WE WILL BE UNDER A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WHILE AT THE SURFACE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A WEAK
SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS OUR
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT. TODAY'S HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND
TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE A WEAK LEE SIDE
TROUGH DEVELOP. THIS SYSTEM WON'T GIVE US ANY STRONG WINDS TO
SPEAK OF...BUT WHAT IT WILL DO IS SWING OUR SURFACE WINDS BACK
AROUND TO THE WEST WHICH WILL CONTINUE OUR NICE WARMING TREND.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY SUNNY WEATHER AS OUR HIGHS
CLIMB AROUND FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE THE FIRST HINTS OF THE RETURN OF THE
WINDS ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL AGAIN DEVELOP AND
GIVE US SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL HELP BUMP OUR WINDS INTO THE
WINDY CATEGORY. BY NEXT TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHICH WILL KEEP US DRY BUT IT WILL
GIVE US SOME STRONG WINDS. WE WILL SEE IF THE MODELS STICK TO THIS
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...03/12-04/12
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP OUR CEILINGS UNLIMITED AND OUR SURFACES WINDS
WEAK. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 15
KNOTS TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL DRY...BUT AT LEAST NO STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS MORNING WE WILL SEE ONE MORE MORNING OF DECENT RH
RECOVERIES...BUT AFTER TODAY WE WILL RETURN TO OUR USUAL POOR
MORNING RH RECOVERIES. OUR AFTERNOON MIN RH'S WILL CONTINUE VERY
DRY. TODAY WE CAN EXPECT UPPER SINGLE DIGIT RH'S...BUT BY THE END
OF THE WEEK THOSE READINGS WILL HAVE SLIPPED TO THE MID TO LOWER
SINGLE DIGIT RH'S. WE'LL SEE THE RETURN OF BREEZY WIND CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY AND THE MODEL INDICATE THAT SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WINDY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  51  85  55  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        71  48  83  49  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              74  47  85  52  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              69  44  81  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              53  33  64  39  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   72  47  81  49  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             69  39  77  43  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  76  47  83  49  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               77  45  83  47  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

BRICE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
506 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2011

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-041115-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
506 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.