Red Flag Warning 35, NWS El Paso, TX

292 
WWUS84 KEPZ 231935
RFWEPZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
135 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2011

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS ALOFT OVER OUR
AREA...WHILE CREATING LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AS A RESULT.
CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WILL ALLOW MIXING
DOWN OF THESE WINDS. THIS WILL MEAN GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS FOR
MOST AREAS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE STRONG WINDS...COMBINED WITH VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGERS...WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. OUR AREA REMAINS IN AN EXISTING STATE OF EXTREME
DROUGHT.

NMZ111-112-TXZ055-056-241300-
/O.CAN.KEPZ.FW.A.0030.000000T0000Z-110424T0300Z/
/O.UPG.KEPZ.FW.A.0031.110424T2000Z-110425T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KEPZ.FW.W.0036.110424T1800Z-110425T0200Z/
/O.CON.KEPZ.FW.W.0035.000000T0000Z-110424T0300Z/
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS-
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY-EL PASO-
HUDSPETH-
135 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 055...
056...111 AND 112...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 055...056...
111 AND 112...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM
MDT SUNDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THROUGH 9 PM
MDT TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY FROM
NOON THROUGH 9 PM.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 111 SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND 
  LOWLANDS. FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND 
  SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY. FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO... 
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH. 

* WIND...WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE 20-FOOT LEVEL 15 TO 25 MPH
  WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. FOR SUNDAY...20 TO 30 MPH WINDS 
  WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. 

* HUMIDITY...FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES 
  WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED. CHECK LOCAL LAND MANAGEMENT
  AGENCIES FOR ANY FIRE RESTRICTIONS IN YOUR AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

NMZ113-240300-
/O.CON.KEPZ.FW.W.0035.000000T0000Z-110424T0300Z/
CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
135 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 113...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM
MDT.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 113 CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO 
  MOUNTAINS. 

* WIND...SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE 20-FOOT LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO 
  RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO
  15 PERCENT. 

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED. CHECK LOCAL LAND 
  MANAGEMENT AGENCIES FOR ANY FIRE RESTRICTIONS IN YOUR AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$
JMG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
204 PM MDT FRI APR 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT WEEK
WILL KEEP BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS GOING ALMOST DAILY ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND. TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE LOWLANDS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST
PERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE EARLY ON IS THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HRS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MOVING SYSTEMS THROUGH DURING MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A QUICK...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINANT
ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL MEAN CONTINUED
WARM...DRY AND WINDY. HIGHS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER THE LOWLANDS. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE ADVISORY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A COUPLE OF FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES CROSS OVER THE BORDERLAND. TUESDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK THE WINDIEST AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN
THE KCDS REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TO DROP TO AROUND 80 FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE MEX GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE IT IS DROPPING HIGHS TOO
MUCH(KELP-72) GIVEN GFS IS STILL FORECASTING H85 TEMPS ABOVE 21C.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER ON WED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO WRN CO.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 BY
THU AND FRI AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY OVER THE AREA. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE ROCKIES BEHIND THIS RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z-24/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS CONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK DISTURBANCE RAPIDLY
MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES...WILL BRING SFC WINDS 25015G25KT
GENERALLY TIL 03Z THEN AGAIN AFT 17Z 230-24015G25KT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING THROUGH PASSES AND ALONG RIDGE
LINES GENERALLY OVER 5000 FT MSL.  OCNL MDT TURBC OVR AND
IMMEDIATELY E OF AREA MTNS/SLOPES BLO 15K MSL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE ROCKIES IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE U.S.A...WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF EACH WILL INCREASE WINDS ALOFT OVER US...WHILE GENERATING
LEE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN
TEXAS.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL FACILITATE MIX DOWN OF THESE HIGHER
WINDS ALOFT...ALLOWING THEM TO COMBINE WITH THOSE DRIVEN FROM
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS DUE TO LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPMENT
EACH AFTERNOON.

THE FIRST WAVE MOVES THROUGH TODAY...WHILE A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY. WE REMAIN IN EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WITH MIN RH THROUGH SATURDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS LOWLANDS...TO THE MID TO HIGH TEENS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  SUNDAYS DISTURBANCE WILL RAISE MIN RH GENERALLY 3 TO 8
PERCENT AREA WIDE. HOWEVER...IT WILL ALSO BRING US THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF THE PERIOD.  HAINES INDICIES WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5...WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES GENERALLY FOUND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE THRU
SUNDAY.  PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AS COOLER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY FOLLOWS SUNDAYS TROUGH THROUGH MIDWEEK. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY RETURN TO END NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 61  89  62  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        51  86  54  83  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              53  86  59  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              51  84  54  78  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              44  64  43  62  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   54  83  53  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             48  74  44  71  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  47  85  48  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               53  83  53  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ111>113.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

26/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
430 AM MDT FRI APR 22 2011

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-231130-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
430 AM MDT FRI APR 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COMBINATION
OF WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS RESULTING IN
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BREEZY TO WINDY SATURDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WINDY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
FROM 40 TO 50 MPH OVER MOST LOCATIONS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. BLOWING DUST WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO UNDER A
HALF MILE OVER A FEW AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

ROGASH