Red Flag Warning 17, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
405 AM MDT SUN MAR 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK AS THE
UPPER FLOW REMAINS DRY. SMALL DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW WILL KEEP
OUR WINDY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL DROP DOWN EASTERN
NEW MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS DISTURBANCE...AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY BACK
TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL RAPIDLY
BUILD IN LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
RECOVER BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS ENTIRE WEEK INTO
THE NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A BRIEF RESPITE MID WEEK. DRY ZONAL FLOW
THROUGH TUESDAY MEANS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...AND A
SERIES OF SMALL DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW WILL CREATE WINDY
AFTERNOONS EACH DAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WINDIEST OF THE NEXT 3
DAYS. MONDAY'S WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT BELIEVE THEY
WILL STAY JUST BELOW. WINDS ARE MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...SEE
FOLLOWING DISCUSSION.

GFS HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH UPPER TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE
PAC NORTHWEST AND REACHING OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LAST SEVERAL
RUNS HAVE HAD LIGHT QPF TOTALS EITHER JUST EAST OF SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS OR OVER THEM...SO I HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THAT
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER DYNAMICS ARE PRETTY STRONG WITH LEFT
FRONT QUAD OF 100+ KT JET MOVING OVER THIS AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS
USUAL...LACK OF MOISTURE WORKING AGAINST THE PRECIP. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE...COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TURNS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW NORTHERLY...WHICH OFTEN CREATES SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECT FOR THE
SAC MOUNTAINS. FRONT WILL BRING BRIEF COOLING TO THE CWA...WITH
AROUND 8-12 DEGREES OF COOLING FOR THURSDAY. EL PASO COULD SEE IT'S
FIRST BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE SINCE MAR 9...QUITE A STREAK.

HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH AND TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
RECOVER BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS DOES SHOW
RIDGE TRANSITING ACROSS THE CWA AS PACIFIC TROUGH DISLODGES IT. THIS
WILL SET UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME MOISTURE...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS JUST OUT OF FORECAST
PERIOD AND PROBABLY NOT WORTH HITTING TOO HARD AT THE MOMENT ANYHOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/12Z-28/12Z.
HIGH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU PERIOD. DVLPG AFT 18Z...SURFACE WINDS
WEST/SOUTHWEST 18-22 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 32 KTS...DIMINISHING AGAIN
AFT 01Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WINDY AFTERNOONS EACH DAY. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
BUT PROBABLY NOT MEET THE DURATION REQUIREMENT. MONDAY LOOKS BETTER
AREA WIDE FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. WATCH FOR MONDAY WILL CONTINUE
AND WE MAY UPGRADE THIS TO A WARNING LATER TODAY. A BRIEF RESPITE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT WITH IT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP OTHER
THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS OVER NIGHT. BUT
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BACK DOWN TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HOWEVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 79  51  81  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        81  46  81  46  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              78  42  81  43  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              77  43  79  46  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              57  37  60  39  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   76  41  79  41  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             65  40  68  43  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  77  41  80  42  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               77  41  80  41  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR NMZ110>113.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

17 HEFNER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
645 AM MDT SUN MAR 27 2011

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-281215-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
645 AM MDT SUN MAR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PATCHY
BLOWING DUST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.