High Wind Watch 1, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
238 AM MST FRI FEB 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOME BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED DRY SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND PASS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS STORM WILL BRING A WIDE RANGE OF WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS INCLUDING...VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS...BLOWING DUST...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BRINGING
FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE STARTS BENIGN TODAY AND ENDS BENIGN...DAYS
4-7...WITH A WITH VERY BIG EXCEPTION BETWEEN FOR DAYS 2 AND 3.
TODAY A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE WARMING
OF YESTERDAY'S COOLER TEMPERATURES AND KEEP SKIES CLEAR IN A DEEP
DRY AIRMASS. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR MIX DOWN AND BREEZY
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY THE FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT BIG UPPER STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS BUT NO MOISTURE AT MID OR LOWER LEVELS.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL LINE
UP AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE. DEEP MIXING
WITH WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATELY WINDY
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE CLOUDS.

THE STRONG UPPER STORM ARRIVES INTO W NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT.
A 170KT JET ALOFT COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE FORCING BY A FAST
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN STARTING PCPN OVER THE GILA AFTER MIDNIGHT...
SPREADING IT E TO THE SACS BY DAYBREAK. IT APPEARS THE WEST IS
MOST FAVORABLE FOR PCPN. WHILE ALL LOWLAND ZONES WILL HAVE 10-30%
CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW...THE BIGGER STORY FOR MOST WILL BE THE
STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT'S
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PRESS W TO E FROM MIDNIGHT AFTER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THIS IS SURE TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS...INCLUDING ELECTRICAL UTILITIES. AS FAR AS SNOW IS
CONCERNED...MODELS LAY DOWN ABOUT 4 INCHES IN THE GILA AND 2
INCHES IN THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COOL ENOUGH TO
BRING SNOW LEVELS CLOSE TO DESERT FLOOR LEVELS. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM
PASSES SO FAST THAT NO SPOT SHOULD SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP ABOUT 20-25 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY'S
HIGHS. FOR SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A HIGH WIND WATCH ISSUED FOR ALL
ZONES AND A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION FIRE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN FOR SATURDAY.

FINALLY THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIODS LOOK TO RETURN TO MILD
AND FAIR AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA KEEPING LOWER
AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES HIGHER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 25/12Z-26/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING SKIES CLEAR. LOOK FOR
WINDS FROM 230-260 15G25KTS AREA-WIDE AFTER 18Z. EXPECT LGT-OCNL
MDT TURBC SFC-120 EAST SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS AFT 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY...BEFORE
STRENGTHENING AND TURNING SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC. WINDS WILL BE
EVEN STRONGER SUNDAY AS 170-180+ MPH JET MAXIMUM PASSES OVERHEAD
WITH 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS AVAILABLE FOR MIX-DOWN. 20-FT GUSTS TO
60MPH OR HIGHER IN FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS GAPS...MOUNTAIN
PASSES...ACROSS RIDGE-LINES AND ALONG EAST SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAIN
RANGES WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY. MIN RH FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WEST
TEXAS ZONES...TO THE LOW TEENS OVER THE SACRAMENTO AND CAPITAN
MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 20 PERCENT OVER HIGHER REACHES OF THE GILA
WILDERNESS.  MIN RH WILL DROP A COUPLE PERCENTAGE POINTS AREA-WIDE
SATURDAY...WITH THE WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW.  DESPITE OUR STRONGEST
WINDS SUNDAY...ADVECTION OF COLDER AIR AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEAR
PROXIMITY OF TROUGH AXIS...WILL LIKELY KEEP MIN RH ABOVE 20 PERCENT
MOST AREAS.  EXCEPTION WILL BE HUDSPETH COUNTY...WHERE MIN RH SHOULD
FALL TO THE HIGH TEENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  41  75  44  52 /   0   0   0  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA TX        75  40  77  44  60 /   0   0   0   0  20
LAS CRUCES              69  39  73  42  52 /   0   0   0  10  20
ALAMOGORDO              66  36  71  40  52 /   0   0   0   0  20
CLOUDCROFT              50  30  54  35  31 /   0   0   0  10  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68  36  70  39  49 /   0   0   0  20  30
SILVER CITY             60  33  60  35  38 /   0   0   0  50  40
DEMING                  69  38  72  40  50 /   0   0   0  20  20
LORDSBURG               68  37  69  38  47 /   0   0   0  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NMZ111-112.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     NMZ022>025-030>032.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NMZ022.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NMZ112-113.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ025.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR TXZ055-056.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ055-056.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

14/99

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