Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS El Paso, TX

098 
WGUS74 KEPZ 152128
FFSEPZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
328 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2011

NMC035-152143-
/O.EXP.KEPZ.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110715T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OTERO NM-
328 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL OTERO
COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 330 PM MDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. ARROYOS
OR STREAMS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT.

BE AWARE OF DEBRIS SCATTERED ACROSS ROADWAYS AT WASHES AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. IF YOU HAVE OBSERVED FLOODING...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3306 10577 3306 10555 3287 10557 3289 10578

$$

TRIPOLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
203 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE
OR SIX DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST SOUTH OF THE HIGH COULD BRING A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK SURFACE MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO THE BORDERLAND
WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER
HIGH WEAKENS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER IS MUCH LESS ACTIVE THAT PAST TWO NIGHTS. EXPECT THAT
LINGERING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING THIS FAR NORTH.

OTHERWISE THERE IS BROAD GENERAL AGREEMENT OF A DOWNTURN IN
CONVECTION CHANCES/QPF INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW
THE UPPER HIGH BUILDING STRONGLY INTO THE REGION...CUTTING OFF
THE MOISTURE FEED AND PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CAPPING.

THE DETAILS ARE A BIT TRICKY. LOCAL WRF...WRF-NAM...GFS AND HI-RES
WRFS ALL INDICATE A COUPLE OF STORMS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT FOR
EAST SLOPES OF THE SACS SOUTH TO FAR EASTERN HUDSPETH SO HAVE KEPT
POPS UP THERE BUT LOWERED THEM ELSEWHERE.

A WESTWARD MOVING INVERTED TROF MAY ADD JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
SLIGHTLY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NOTHING BEYOND THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED
INTO ARIZONA WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC STORM AND MAYBE A
STORM OR TWO NEAR THE AZ BORDER.

MODELS FORECAST UPPER HIGH TO SPLIT WITH CENTERS EAST AND WEST BY
EARLY THURSDAY...PERHAPS ALLOWING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO RETURN
FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE BEGUN A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS IN
THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 151200-161200
VFR CONDS XPCTD. FEW-SCT100 SCT250 ACRS RGN. ISLD SCT070CB -TSRA E OF
RUIDOSO-SIERRA BLANCA TX LINE AFT 152100Z-160300Z. SEE TAFS FOR
ADDTL DTLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH BUILDING WESTWARD OVER OUR REGION WILL LIMIT TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND TEND TO CAP MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A STRAY STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING WESTWARD THROUGH MEXICO MAY SLIGHTLY
INCREASE THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT CHANCES
STILL APPEAR SLIM.

THE HIGH WILL BE WELL IN CONTROL FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
ON AN ISOLATED STORM FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS NEAR THE
ARIZONA BORDER.

THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO SPLIT BY THURSDAY WITH CENTERS EAST
AND WEST WITH A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE AND CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DAILY MINIMUM RHS SHOULD BE 15 TO 25 PERCENT OVER THE DESERTS AND
30 TO 40 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS. NIGHTTIME RHS WILL BE IN THE 40
TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT EXCEPT
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

VENTILATION SHOULD BE EXCELLENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS.
HAINES INDICES MOSTLY 3 AND 4 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 98  76 100  76  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA TX        92  71  94  71  93 /  10  20  10  10  10
LAS CRUCES              97  73  99  73  98 /   0   0   0  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              96  71  97  71  96 /  10  10  10  10  20
CLOUDCROFT              74  53  74  53  73 /  20  20  20  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   96  71  97  71  96 /   0   0  10  20  20
SILVER CITY             87  63  88  63  87 /   0   0  20  20  20
DEMING                  97  72  98  72  97 /   0   0  10  10  10
LORDSBURG               97  71  98  71  97 /   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1111 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2011

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-161715-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1111 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF AN EL PASO-ALAMOGORDO LINE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND OVER EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE.

MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BUT SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR FLOODING
TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND THIS OFFICE.

ROGASH