Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS El Paso, TX

322 
WGUS74 KEPZ 032335
FFSEPZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
535 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

NMC017-051-032350-
/O.EXP.KEPZ.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-110803T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRANT NM-SIERRA NM-
535 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL SIERRA
AND EAST CENTRAL GRANT COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 545 PM
MDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. ARROYOS
OR STREAMS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT.

BE AWARE OF DEBRIS SCATTERED ACROSS ROADWAYS AT WASHES AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. IF YOU HAVE OBSERVED FLOODING...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3301 10770 3282 10769 3280 10791 3299 10793

$$

JMG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
235 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A PATTERN
OF ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE
LOWLAND DESERTS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR PERIOD OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LIMITED ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT CENTERED OVER TEXAS CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA WEATHER
PATTERN BY WAY OF AN WESTWARD EXTENSION THAT SITS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH HIGH AT
LEVELS BELOW 500 MB. THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUEL ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN TOMORROW.

WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED V PROFILE
EXISTS THAT IS INDICATIVE OF A STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE LOWLANDS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF THE STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE
HAIL. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN. MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

A SMALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
WEEKEND THAT MAY HELP SLIGHTLY IMPROVE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH 100'S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS.

BY LATE SUNDAY...THE HIGH WILL RE-CENTER ITSELF OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND
REDUCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BARE MINIMAL. A SMALL AMOUNT OF
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO HELP SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/00Z-05/00Z.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED 3-5SM TSRA
BKN030-040 EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE... WITH ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE DESERT LOWLANDS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SIMILAR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE
AIR TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO STRONG HEATING AND MODERATE SURFACE HUMIDITY. A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
AREAS NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER SLIGHTLY FAVORED. ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM COULD HAVE STRONG WINDS IN DOWNBURSTS AND NICKEL-SIZED HAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 76 101  78 101  78 /  20  10  20  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA TX        72  98  74  98  73 /  20  10  20  10  20
LAS CRUCES              73 100  75 101  75 /  20  10  20  10  20
ALAMOGORDO              71  98  73  98  72 /  20  20  30  10  20
CLOUDCROFT              50  76  52  76  52 /  30  30  30  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   71  97  73  99  72 /  20  20  30  10  30
SILVER CITY             61  90  63  91  63 /  30  20  30  20  30
DEMING                  71  99  73 100  73 /  20  10  20  10  20
LORDSBURG               70  99  72 100  72 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

04/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1108 AM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-041715-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1108 AM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED LOWLAND AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OVERALL RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY WITH BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. STORMS
WILL WEAKEN AND TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT. WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE DESERT
LOWLANDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ISOLATED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN THE MOUNTAINS. SPOTTY RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR MOST DAYS WITH A FEW AREAS EXPERIENCING PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. A SMALL NUMBER OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGER HAIL AND HIGHER WIND GUSTS AT
TIMES. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM WITH LOWLAND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR FLOODING
TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND THIS OFFICE.

LUNDEEN