Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS El Paso, TX

669 
WGUS74 KEPZ 262059
FFSEPZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
259 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2011

NMC051-262145-
/O.CON.KEPZ.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-110726T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SIERRA NM-
259 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN SIERRA
COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM MDT...

AT 257 PM MDT...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN IN POVERTY CREEK WITH SOME WATER 
STARTING TO CROSS THE ROAD IN TOWN. HEAVIER RAIN IS INDICATED ON THE 
DOPPLER RADAR TO THE EAST ALONG HIGHWAY 59 EAST OF POVERTY CREEK 
AND HIGHWAY 52 NORTH OF WINSTON. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  POVERTY CREEK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO
CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3336 10767 3339 10781 3348 10781 3348 10780
      3348 10763

$$

JMG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
415 AM MDT TUE JUL 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. HIGHER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF
DEMING WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THE REST OF THE BORDERLAND WILL SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BUILD A BIT FURTHER BACK OVER NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY ISOLATED FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY
RECENTER BACK OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
U.S...WITH RIDGING BACK TO NEW MEXICO. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE
PLUME SLOWLY BECOMING DIFFUSE THOUGH STILL MOSTLY OVER ARIZONA AND
FAR WEST NEW MEXICO. THIS SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER THE GILA...BOOTHEEL AND PERHAPS LUNA COUNTY. AREAS TO
THE EAST SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE BOTH DAYS...JUST ISOLATED...AS
EASTERLY DISTURBANCES COULD STILL KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AREAS WEST OF DEMING COULD STILL SEE
SOME LOCAL FLOODING BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MODEL PW'S REMAIN
AROUND 1.25 INCHES.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH CENTER GRADUALLY RE-ESTABLISHES
ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. THE INCREASING HEIGHTS
AND SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT SHOULD REDUCE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF DEMING. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW INVERTED TROUGH MOVING OVER
AREA SATURDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. GFS ALSO
SHOWING SHORT WAVE WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION BUT WILL NOT
HIT TOO HARD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 26/12Z-27/12Z.
GENLY VFR. EAST OF DEMING AND SOUTH OF ALAMOGORDO...120 BKN/SCT
LAYERS 300 WITH ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA BKN100. CONDS DISSIPATING AFTER
14Z. DVLPG OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFT 17Z...SCT 5SM TSRA BKN080CB TOPS
500. SAME CONDS...BUT ISOLD...WILL SPREAD TO REMAINDER OF AREA AFT
23Z. ASSOCD WITH THESE STORMS...WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS AND SMALL HAIL.

&&

.FIRE DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. WILL CONTINUE A EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN WEST OF DEMING BUT THE EAST FLOW WILL PUSH SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...MOST FREQUENT WEST OF
DEMING. MIN AFTERNOON RH'S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL REMAIN 25-30%
FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK...WHILE MIN RH'S FOR MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL
REMAIN 35-45%.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 97  74  98  75  99 /  20  20  20  20  10
SIERRA BLANCA TX        95  70  96  71  97 /  20  20  20  20  10
LAS CRUCES              97  72  98  73  99 /  20  20  20  20  10
ALAMOGORDO              96  70  97  71  98 /  20  20  20  20  10
CLOUDCROFT              73  50  73  50  73 /  30  20  30  20  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   94  70  95  69  96 /  20  20  30  30  10
SILVER CITY             82  60  83  59  86 /  40  30  40  30  20
DEMING                  95  71  96  70  98 /  20  20  20  20  10
LORDSBURG               95  70  96  69  97 /  40  40  30  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

17 HEFNER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1107 AM MDT TUE JUL 26 2011

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-271715-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1107 AM MDT TUE JUL 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH SCATTERED
STORMS WEST OF THE RIVER. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT A FEW STORMS
OUT WEST WILL CREATE HEAVY RAINFALL AND EXCESSIVE RUNOFF THAT WILL
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLASH FLOODING. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
AROUND THE SILVER CITY AREA. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE
STORMS COULD BE IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

OUR CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RAIN IS
MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...