Winter Weather Advisory 14, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1002 AM PST SAT NOV 19 2011

.UPDATE...
GIVEN LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED WX GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. SYSTEM WILL TRACK MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN
EXPECTED WITH A SUBSTANTIAL PERIOD OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
CAPE AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MUCH OF THE REDWOOD COAST WILL
BE DOWNSLOPED BY SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY EASTERLY FLOW AFTER AN
INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING. MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MENDOCINO COUNTY BUT AM
LEANING AWAY FROM THAT IDEA GIVEN SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3500 FEET OR
SO AND SUBSEQUENTLY MINIMAL HIGHWAY IMPACTS. AAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM PST SAT NOV 19 2011/

SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE CAPE. BY THIS AFTERNOON A SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE COAST WITH INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPE. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY PRIMARILY
FROM THE CAPE NORTH IN HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW OFF THE COAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAD KEPT MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF THE COAST WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND SLID THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER A
MAJOR SHIFT IN THE MODELS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT WITH THE NEW
GFS...NAM...ECMWF..AND GEM ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW
MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND THEN SLIDING SOUTH.
THIS HAS RESULTING IN A DRASTIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WITH
HEAVIER RAINFALL NOW EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE CAPE. A HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE MENDOCINO
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
FURTHER NORTH AND INLAND. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RISE
TO AROUND 3500 FT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
REMAINING ABOVE 4000 FT WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE YOLLA BOLLY MOUNTAINS. THIS IS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT DETAILS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE HWO.
ADDITIONALLY THERE SHOULD BE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -29C AND MUCAPE AROUND 100 J/KG
OVER THE WATERS. THUS ISOLATED THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD THE
SYSTEM MOVE ANY FURTHER EAST THEN IS NOW FORECAST HEAVIER RAINFALL
AND SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR ALONG WITH THUNDER ACTIVITY OVER LAND.
850 MB TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1C TO -1C WHICH
IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR SMALL HAIL.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING BEHIND BUILDING RIDGING OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. A NEW
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY RAINFALL WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE
NORTH...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS OREGON. A
WIDE PLUME OF GREATER THEN 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INFLUENCE
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINNING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS
INDICATE UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE OREGON COAST WITH 1 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST CA. ANY ADJUSTMENT SOUTH COULD RESULT IN
HIGHER TOTALS IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THUS TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-7K FT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO WINTER ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF IT. GFS 925MB WINDS
ARE NOW PREDICTED TO REACH UP TO 75 KT JUST OFF THE COAST AND AROUND
55 KT NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN VERY STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY STRONG
GUSTS OVER THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY IN THE KING RANGE.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERY
CONDITIONS BEHIND. TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST THUS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE EXTENDED. /RPA

AVIATION...HAVE CONTINUED -SHRA AT KCEC AND KACV THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME TEMPO MVFR A BIT LATER
THIS MORNING. EXPECT MORE PRECIP AT KACV AND KUKI LATE TODAY OR
TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU MUCH OF THE DAY
AT KUKI AND KACV AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO SFC LOW. /SEC

MARINE...NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...S WINDS WILL PICK UP BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THRU
TONIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES SSE JUST W OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT STRONG S WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SUSTAINED GALES AND NEAR STORM
FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE PROGGED TO RAPIDLY DROP OFF WED AFTN
OR EVENING AND VEER TO MORE NW. TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION ARE STILL
A BIT UP IN THE AIR WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE EURO IN THIS TIME PERIOD. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY PZZ475.

&&

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