Small Craft Advisory for Winds 1, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
331 PM PST SAT FEB 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL BRING PERIODIC RAIN AND
WIND THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO EXPECT SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE WARM OVER LAST NIGHT. ISSUED
ANOTHER HARD FREEZE WARNING WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 29 ONCE AGAIN. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN AS WELL. CLOUD COVER FROM AN INCOMING FRONT IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE ZONE IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING. SOME ICY
SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE IS AN INCOMING FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP
TO THE REGION. WITH FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH THE SOUTH SLOPES WILL
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN. THE GREATER EUREKA AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE RAIN SHADOW OF THE KING RANGE AND WILL SEE LOWER AMOUNTS.
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2500 TO 3000FT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...HOWEVER COLD AND DRY AIR WEDGED IN OVER THE EASTERN
TRINITY VALLEYS MAY BRING LOCALLY LOWER SNOWFALL...DOWN TO 2KFT.
TUESDAY THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
BRINGING CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIP.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS SHOW A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF QUICKLY
MOVE THE LOW UP OFF THE COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN BC. PREVIOUS RUNS
AND THE GEM SHOW A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND OVER
SOUTHERN OR AND GOING SLOWER. TRENDED THE GOING FORECAST TOWARDS
THE CURRENT GFS. MODELS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE
WINDS...BUT EXPECT THESE MAY END UP BEING LOWER WITH THE LOW SO
FAR AWAY FROM US. WITH SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGHER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT THE FLOW QUICKLY
BECOMES ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW MAKES A TURN TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. BFG

&&

.MARINE...THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM LAST NIGHT AS WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED. HOWEVER, SEAS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED SO A HAZARDOUS
SEAS WARNING HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT. SEAS
MAY BE AS HIGH AS 13 FEET AT 9 SECONDS. CONDITIONS OVERALL WILL
DECAY QUICKLY ON SUN AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW BRINGING BUILDING
CONDITIONS ON MON, AND CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO WED. GALE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE TUE INTO WED AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER,
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS ARE ALL TAKING THE SURFACE LOW TOWARD VANCOUVER
ISLAND AND COULD CAUSE A WEAKENING OF THE FRONT, WHICH IN TURN COULD
YIELD WEAKER WINDS. A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS SHOULD SOLIDIFY THIS. IF
THE LOW COMES IN MORE TO THE SOUTH, GALES WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY.
BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED, CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY EASE. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY
     CAZ001-002.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL
     9 PM PST THIS EVENING PZZ450-455-470-475. HAZARDOUS SEAS
     WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY PZZ470-475. &&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
306 PM PST SAT FEB 26 2011

CAZ001-002-272315-
REDWOOD COAST-MENDOCINO COAST-
306 PM PST SAT FEB 26 2011

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM PST
SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A HARD FREEZE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT TIL 8AM.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE WELL
BELOW FREEZING HITTING RECORD LOWS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A HARD FREEZE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

RECORD COLD WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S.

MORE RAIN AND POSSIBLE STRONG WIND RETURNS NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ003-004-076-272315-
NORTH COAST INTERIOR-UPPER TRINITY RIVER-MENDOCINO INTERIOR-
306 PM PST SAT FEB 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

COLD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

POSSIBLE SNOW DOWN TO 2000 FEET IN EASTERN TRINITY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.