Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1226 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

CLOSED UPPER LOW/REMNANTS OF LEE NOW OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST. THE CWA WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE NW QUAD OF THE UPPER LOW BUT SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY
MAXIMA WILL ROTATE CYCLONICALLY SW AND THRU THE CWA OVER THE NEXT
24-30 HOURS. A MODIFIED TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAXIMIZED DURING PEAK HEATING TIME. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NOTED BY THE SKINNY
CAPE...SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. QPF SHOULD
BE LOW WITH A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER ALLOWING FOR SOME
EVAPORATION.

WITH THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE BENT OVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MN
EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS CANADA THE MID LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BE RATHER WEAK...LEADING TO A SLOW
CRAWL OF THE CLOSED. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A DECENT GRADIENT IN
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MO. MAX TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE MO
RIVER WILL BE IMPACTED BY ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THICKER CLOUD
COVER.

WARMER RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY AND WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT PLOWS SEWD THROUGH THE CWA. POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE RATHER CHILLY AND BELIEVE IT NECESSARY
TO LOWER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY THE MINS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WONT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY AS CONFIDENCE LOW ON AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. .
SHOULD WE END UP WITH CLEAR SKIES ONE COULD ARGUE GOING WAY UNDER
GUIDANCE.

MJ

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR RETURNS SHOWING AN ISOLATED SHOWER
FORMING NORTHEAST OF KANSAS CITY. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 1000 J/KG
MUCAPE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI SO EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE BEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
TERMINALS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH GOING FORECAST OF SHOWERS WITH ONLY
CB MENTION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOSTLY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH SUNSET. SATURDAY
WILL LIKELY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY BUT WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION. SINCE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ASIDE
FROM THE SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM CHANCES VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT.

CDB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1255 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-101215-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1255 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

CDB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
239 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2011

MOZ037-043-044-092030-
CASS MO-JACKSON MO-JOHNSON MO-
239 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON...EASTERN
JACKSON AND NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL
330 PM CDT...

AT 237 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LAKE TAPAWINGO TO
LONE JACK...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  LAKE LOTAWANA...LEE'S SUMMIT...GREENWOOD...PLEASANT HILL...
  RAYMORE...LONE JACK...LAKE WINNEBAGO...UNITY VILLAGE...STRASBURG
  AND GUNN CITY.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

  I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 13 AND 28.
  I-470 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 6 AND 16.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3880 9451 3916 9436 3900 9411 3892 9411
      3891 9409 3864 9411
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 024DEG 24KT 3904 9437 3888 9412

SF