Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
710 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
/350 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011/
ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST WITH TIME. ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SETTLE WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA...NOW INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. THIS HAS ACTED TO EFFECTIVELY STABILIZE THE AIR MASS ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. COMPACT UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO CHURN ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER. ASSOCIATED ASCENT HAS GENERATED A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN OVERALL LARGE SCALE ASCENT...HAVE
TONED DOWN POPS GIVEN THE STABLE AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE. BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ROBUST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THE SFC LOW AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. AS INITIAL CONVECTION ORGANIZES...ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND GENERALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AIDED BY STRENGTHENING LLJ. HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS OF THE LLJ
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY SPARK ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED REGIME. WILL KEEP CHC POPS TO
ACCOUNT...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

ANY OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA SATURDAY. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE AFTERNOON...ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI WITHIN STEEPER LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...CANADIAN SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

DEROCHE

MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

THE SHINNY NEW SMELL WILL HAVE WORN OFF THE ACTIVE PATTERN THAT WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE AS WE GET TO NEXT WORK WEEK. ENSEMBLE AND
OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL POINT AT SOME TROUGHING PREVAILING ACROSS
THE REGION AS MONDAY ARRIVES...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT....BUT
THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL TRAVERS EAST A BIT
QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WHILE MONDAY WILL STILL BENEFIT
FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...THE RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL AUGUST
LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD RETURN AS QUICKLY AS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER REGION WITH READINGS RANGING
AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY RAIN.

SPEAKING OF RAIN...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS...BUT
WILL GET BEAT DOWN BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER WEDNESDAY...ULTIMATELY FORCING A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW BACK
ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS ALL UNFOLDS THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE LARGER FLOW THAT WILL BRING A REOCCURRING
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO OUR REGION. BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE CRESTS
THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT WEAK IMPULSES AGAIN WEDNESDAY COULD BRING MORE
STORMS. HAVE LEFT A BLEND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WORK WEEK AS A RESULT.

CUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...IN THE NEAR TERM SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PUSH OUT OF THE AREA WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. LINGERING CLOUD COVER
WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAKING WAY FOR CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A FEW CU COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS OTHERWISE NOTHING NOTEWORTHY FOR THE PERIOD. LOOKED AT FOG
POSSIBILITY THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE HINTING AT. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY FOG DOES DEVELOP IT WOULD LIKELY
BE PATCHY GROUND FOG.

AJ/SF

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
643 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-131200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
643 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 TOWARD PAOLA...CLINTON AND BUTLER. WHILE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW...AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE THREAT
OF RAIN WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FURTHER NORTH...PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS...INCLUDING LAKE AND RIVER VALLEYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DUX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
713 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

KSZ060-130045-
LINN KS-
713 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LINN COUNTY IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 708 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF BLUE MOUND...OR 9 MILES WEST OF
MOUND CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MOUND CITY AND PRESCOTT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3803 9505 3805 9508 3815 9508 3825 9503
      3808 9461 3804 9461 3803 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 310DEG 30KT 3815 9495

DUX