Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...

HEAT AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT
TERM...WHILE A RETURN TO VERY HOT TEMPERATURES BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR
THE EXTENDED.

FOR TONIGHT...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 70S PRODUCING HEAT INDICES IN THE 102-107 RANGE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY/WARNING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF A MARYVILLE TO
MACON LINE. TO THE NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED ALONG A
QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS COOLED TEMPS OFF INTO THE 70S
AND 80S SO THE HEAT HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN DROPPED.

FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING...AIRMASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AND
WEAKLY CAPPED. WITH DELTA THETA-E VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40 K AND
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES...AIRMASS REMAINS PRIMED FOR
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS/MICROBURSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INVOF THE LINGERING
QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BECOME ENHANCED BY THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW...AND WHERE DEEP SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THUS...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THE
EVENING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE BUILDING FURTHER WEST
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS IN ADVANCE OF A WELL-DEFINED...AND CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED...MIDLEVEL WAVE OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY
STRETCHES INTO NEBRASKA AND IOWA WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN
ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM SLOWLY TREKS EASTWARD
TONIGHT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.

FOR WEDS...COOLER 850 HPA TEMPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL BRING A RELATIVE COOL DOWN TO THE ENTIRE AREA...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN CWA. WHILE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. A CONTINUED UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
AIRMASS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR WEDS AND
AGAIN ON THURS.

UNSEASONABLY WARM 850 HPA TEMPS SURGE BACK INTO THE ENTIRE REGION ON
FRIDAY...CLIMBING INTO THE 24-27 C RANGE. DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITHIN A
DEEPENING UPPER RIDGE WILL FAVOR MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER
100S. THIS WILL VERY LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO DANGEROUS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND A HEAT WATCH MAY SOON BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY AND LASTING POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HAWBLITZEL

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS WELL-EVIDENT ON
RADAR EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST MO TO NEAR MCI. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK
TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...BUT ITS IMPACTS ON
MCI ARE UNCERTAIN AS THE BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN AND MAY JUST
BRIEFLY BACK THE WINDS THERE BEFORE IT MIXES OUT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINDS TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER A FEW HOURS. OF
BIGGER CONCERN IS THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A VERY
SLOWLY MOVING UPPER WAVE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE STJ-IRK CORRIDOR
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL BE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE THE
UPPER WAVE IS BETTER DEFINED. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF JUST WIDELY-
SCATTERED OR EVEN ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THE KC TERMINALS...WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A VCTS THROUGH 04Z. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS.

HAWBLITZEL

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MOZ011>014-020>024-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ001-002-004.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1251 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-131215-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1251 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A ST JOSEPH TO
MACON LINE CAN EXPECT HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP ANYWHERE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA...THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY FRIDAY...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH DANGEROUS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HAWBLITZEL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
753 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

MOZ023-030-031-130145-
CARROLL MO-LIVINGSTON MO-RAY MO-
753 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN RAY...SOUTHERN
LIVINGSTON AND NORTHERN CARROLL COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 750 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTH OF CARROLLTON...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  CARROLLTON...BOSWORTH...HALE...BOGARD...AVALON AND TINA.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3962 9328 3958 9327 3954 9327 3954 9329
      3951 9328 3938 9329 3928 9406 3953 9381
      3953 9376 3958 9376 3961 9374 3977 9367
      3972 9336 3970 9336 3970 9327 3969 9328
      3965 9329 3963 9326
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 267DEG 12KT 3950 9355

ADOLPHSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
804 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

MOZ032-033-039-040-130130-
CHARITON MO-HOWARD MO-RANDOLPH MO-SALINE MO-
804 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME EASTERN SALINE...
SOUTHWESTERN RANDOLPH...NORTHERN HOWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN CHARITON
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 759 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ARMSTRONG...OR 6 MILES EAST OF GLASGOW...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ARMSTRONG AND HIGBEE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3925 9243 3921 9245 3906 9293 3932 9294
      3936 9249 3925 9236
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 243DEG 11KT 3923 9272

ADOLPHSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
806 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

KSZ102-130130-
DONIPHAN KS-
806 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DONIPHAN COUNTY UNTIL 830
PM CDT...

AT 804 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HIGHLAND...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  TROY...SEVERANCE...BENDENA AND FANNING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3990 9534 3992 9520 3990 9520 3991 9515
      3988 9514 3987 9513 3987 9510 3966 9505
      3971 9534 3988 9535
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 267DEG 12KT 3981 9527

ADOLLPHSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
809 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

MOZ031-039-130145-
CARROLL MO-SALINE MO-
809 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SALINE AND
SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 808 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MALTA BEND...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CARROLLTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MIAMI AND DE WITT.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3940 9316 3916 9316 3896 9348 3935 9347
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 263DEG 11KT 3925 9337

ADOLPHSON