Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
700 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

ONGOING POST FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING CONVECTION HAD PUSHED THE
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE BOUNDARY HAS SINCE STALLED AND IS NOW LIFTING
BACK NORTH AS AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING IS NOW UNDERWAY SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. THIS IS ALLOWING THE WARM SECTOR TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO
1500 TO 2000 J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATING AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS INITIALLY WITHIN AGITATED CU FIELD
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO SPREAD
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE REMAINING INHIBITION IS ERODED. WHILE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MID LEVEL FLOW
OF 40-45 KTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. GIVEN THE WEAK LLVL WIND FIELDS...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH SREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATE POST FRONTAL STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
HAVE HELD ON TO CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FAIRLY DECENT DAY
EXPECTED TOMORROW AS PRECIP REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WITHIN A PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE PLAINS
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE MARKEDLY
AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND WILL KEEP HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER HEIGHT
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS LEADING TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEXT
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK
BRINGING A FRONT INTO THE REGION.

DEROCHE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH SEEMS TO BE TEMPO CONDITION AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN THE STRATUS WHICH WILL BREAK OUT AROUND LATE MORNING
TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...THE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
ALL BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ADOLPHSON

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
652 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

KSZ025-102-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>024-111115-
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-
MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-
ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-
652 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...
NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DIMINISH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BUILD
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AND WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE IS
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO HIGHLIGHT A SPECIFIC PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

KSZ057-060-103>105-MOZ025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054-111115-
MIAMI-LINN KS-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-
CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-
JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
652 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS...NORTHEAST KANSAS...CENTRAL MISSOURI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TRIGGERING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN THROUGH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A KIRKSVILLE TO
KANSAS CITY LINE.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT AS
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BUILD
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AND WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE IS
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO HIGHLIGHT A SPECIFIC PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED THIS EVENING FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
SOUTH AND EAST OF A KANSAS CITY TO KIRKSVILLE LINE.

ADOLPHSON

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