Alert archive / Missouri / Special Weather Statements in 2011

Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

May 29, 2011Clinton County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this special weather statement at May 29, 2011, 2:51 AM CDT for Clinton County, Missouri. It was in force for 39 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 29, 2011, 2:51 AM CDT (07:51 UTC)
Expired: May 29, 2011, 3:30 AM CDT
In force: 39 min
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO

County Clinton County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 130 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 624 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 63 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 169 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 29, 2:50 AM CDT, 1 minute earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 29, 2:50 AM CDT, 1 minute before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
250 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...

MULTIPLE LAYERS OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT MATERIALIZING QUICKLY TONIGHT
TOWARDS THE SATURATED PERIPHERY OF A STRONG EML ADVECTING NORTHEAST
FROM WRN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA. PER MODEL FORECASTS...INITIAL ASCENT
APPEARS CENTERED AROUND THE 305K-310K LAYERS COINCIDENT WITH WEAK
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THROUGH THE H8-H7 LAYER...BUT SHOULD DEEPEN
THROUGH THE 315K LAYER WITH TIME TOWARDS SUNRISE...EFFECTIVELY
ELIMINATING ANY ELEVATED INHIBITION. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES
WINDS IN THESE LAYERS INCREASING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...TAPPING SUBSTANTIAL MUCAPES (ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG)
AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE DOWNSTREAM SOURCE.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS AMPLE FOR
ORGANIZED ELEVATED SUPERCELL TYPE CONVECTION (AROUND 50
KT)...ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR THROUGH THE LIFTED LAYER (1.5-6 KM)
IS SLIGHTLY LESS (IN THE RANGE OF 30-40KT)...ALBEIT STILL SUFFICIENT
FOR WELL ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LARGE HAIL.
BEST COMBINATION OF INCREASING LAPSE RATES...LIFT...AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO COME TOGETHER OVER FAR NWRN/NORTH CNTRL
MISSOURI SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE.

ONCE AGAIN...HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS (4KM
WRF-NMM/WRF-ARW/3 KM HRRR) HAVE CAPTURED THIS GENERAL TREND MOST
ACCURATELY...ALTHOUGH AS USUAL HAVE LAGGED WITH THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND EVOLUTION BY A COUPLE HOURS. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LIFT THROUGH MOST OF NRN MISSOURI THROUGH
SUNRISE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE LARGEST
CELLS...WITH FURTHER ASCENT HIGHER IN THE COLUMN (TYPIFIED BY CNTRL
NEBRASKA CONVECTION) ENTERING FAR NWRN MISSOURI AND SWEEPING EAST
ALONG THE IOWA BORDER SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THERE IS ALSO GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT STRUNG SOUTH OF THE OZARK PLATEAU WILL
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...CLEARING INTO IOWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER DIURNAL HEATING TO SOME EXTENT ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR...BUT REGARDLESS THE AIRMASS
CHANGE WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE GIVEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL
DAMP WEATHER.

DEEP SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA SOLIDLY IN THE CAPPED WARM
SECTOR...WITH SUBSTANTIAL SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA LOCALLY INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING A PORTION
OF THE H8 SLY 40-50KT SPEED MAX TO THE SFC. CURRENTLY...HAVE PARTS
OF NERN KANSAS/FAR NWRN MISSOURI FALLING JUST SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...FEELING AN INCREASE IN LOW/MID CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAY NOT REALIZE THE FULL MIXING POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...LINEAR TYPE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD FORM OVER CNTRL
NEBRASKA/NORTH CNTRL KANSAS BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH A DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALLOWING FOR AN EWD PROPAGATION INTO NERN KANSAS/NWRN
MISSOURI BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LIMITED DYNAMIC SUPPORT...ANY
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE DECAYING STAGE BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE CWA...HOWEVER WILL PULL THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE I-70 CORRIDOR BEFORE LOSING DEFINITION BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEKEND...SHOWING ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
RIDGING RETROGRADING INTO THE SRN PLAINS...THEN ESSENTIALLY SETTING
UP SHOP OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS THE RETROGRESSION PROCESS EVOLVES...COULD CONCEIVABLY SEE A
MCS CLIP THROUGH FAR NRN/NERN MISSOURI THURSDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
MODEL SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO HAS NOT BEEN OVERLY CONSISTENT. WHAT
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IS A FORECAST FOR VERY WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SOME 10F-15F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AT BEST. LOOKS LIKE THE
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER SEASON WILL START JUST AS ADVERTISED.

21

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS AREAS FROM NEAR EMPORIA KANSAS EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH KANSAS CITY INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. PREVAILING THUNDERSTORMS
AT 07Z IN THE TAFS STILL LOOKS LIKE A DECENT TIME FOR THE ONSET OF
THUNDER AT THE TERMINALS. LAST MINUTE AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC TIMING OF THE STORMS. STORMS SHOULD
SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND WARM FRONT BOTH MOVE NORTH CARRYING THE STORMS AWAY
FROM THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS...THEN CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING RATHER GUSTY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE KANSAS-MISSOURI REGION.

CUTTER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

Hazardous weather outlook, May 28, 6:57 PM CDT, 7 hours 54 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
657 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-291100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
657 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER THERE IS A LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER TOR NOT THIS WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...IF
STORMS CAN GET GOING...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY
WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS...WHICH WOULD AFFECT LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM PAOLA KANSAS TO BOONVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ANY ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING NORTH INTO
IOWA SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAY LINGER IN
FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI FOR A SHORT PERIOD AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. LARGE
HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE
ACTIVITY MOVES NORTH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF MISSOURI LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI...THOUGH WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF A PAOLA KANSAS TO BOONVILLE MISSOURI LINE AS
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRING BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED.

CUTTER

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 29, 1:26 AM CDT, 1 hour 25 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
126 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

KSZ025-103-MOZ028-290715-
ATCHISON KS-LEAVENWORTH KS-PLATTE MO-
126 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PLATTE...
SOUTHEASTERN ATCHISON AND NORTHERN LEAVENWORTH COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM
CDT...

AT 123 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EASTON...OR 8 MILES WEST OF LEAVENWORTH...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LEAVENWORTH...WESTON...PLATTE CITY...TRACY...POTTER...LOWEMONT...
  STILLINGS...FORT LEAVENWORTH...BEAN LAKE...BEVERLY AND IATAN.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3939 9519 3953 9507 3953 9496 3938 9475
      3914 9519
TIME...MOT...LOC 0626Z 228DEG 18KT 3933 9507

SF

Special weather statement, May 29, 1:37 AM CDT, 1 hour 14 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
137 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

MOZ021-022-029-030-037-290730-
CALDWELL MO-CLAY MO-CLINTON MO-JACKSON MO-RAY MO-
137 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RAY...NORTHERN JACKSON...
SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON...CLAY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN CALDWELL COUNTIES
UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

AT 132 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OAKVIEW TO MISSOURI
CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  EXCELSIOR SPRINGS...KEARNEY...LAWSON...WOODS HEIGHTS...CRYSTAL
  LAKES...EXCELSIOR ESTATES...HOLT...FLEMING...PRATHERSVILLE...
  MOSBY...HOMESTEAD...RAYVILLE...KNOXVILLE AND ELMIRA.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

  I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 8 AND 38.
  I-435 LOOP FROM MILE MARKERS 44 TO 54.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3954 9439 3953 9376 3918 9406 3916 9460
      3918 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 0638Z 216DEG 22KT 3928 9452 3927 9423

SF

Special weather statement, May 29, 2:13 AM CDT, 38 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
213 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

KSZ103-MOZ021-028-029-290800-
CLAY MO-CLINTON MO-LEAVENWORTH KS-PLATTE MO-
213 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PLATTE...SOUTHWESTERN CLINTON...
NORTHWESTERN CLAY AND NORTHEASTERN LEAVENWORTH COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM
CDT...

AT 212 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SMITHVILLE TO
LEAVENWORTH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  PLATTE CITY...SMITHVILLE...WESTON...TRACY...CAMDEN POINT...
  TRIMBLE...DEARBORN...EDGERTON...BEVERLY...HOOVER...IATAN AND
  RIDGELY.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

  I-435 LOOP FROM MILE MARKERS 25 TO 48.
  I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 9 AND 30.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3942 9503 3942 9497 3945 9499 3945 9502
      3953 9500 3954 9438 3925 9452 3928 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0713Z 228DEG 21KT 3936 9451 3937 9496

SF

Special weather statement, May 29, 2:51 AM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
251 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

MOZ021-022-029-030-290830-
CALDWELL MO-CLAY MO-CLINTON MO-RAY MO-
251 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RAY...EASTERN
CLINTON...NORTHERN CLAY AND SOUTHWESTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 330
AM CDT...

AT 246 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOLT...OR NEAR KEARNEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LAWSON...PLATTSBURG...LATHROP...EXCELSIOR ESTATES...HOLT...POLO...
  KINGSTON...ELMIRA AND TURNEY.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 25 AND 47.

LAT...LON 3968 9444 3964 9396 3932 9410 3937 9453
TIME...MOT...LOC 0752Z 210DEG 17KT 3944 9433

SF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 29, 1:26 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Platte	49 min
May 29, 1:37 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Clay, Ray	53 min
May 29, 2:13 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Platte	47 min
May 29, 2:19 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clay, Clinton	27 min
May 29, 3:44 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Caldwell, Clinton	46 min
May 29, 3:55 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Gentry	50 min
May 29, 3:56 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Gentry	49 min
May 29, 4:47 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Linn	28 min
May 29, 5:05 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Gentry	40 min
May 29, 5:20 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Harrison	40 min
May 29, 6:28 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Nodaway	32 min
May 29, 6:47 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Nodaway, Worth	28 min
May 29, 6:58 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Gentry	47 min
May 29, 7:09 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Harrison	51 min
May 29, 7:43 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Harrison	32 min
May 29, 7:59 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Mercer	31 min
May 29, 8:10 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Mercer, Putnam	35 min
May 29, 8:46 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Putnam, Schuyler	44 min
May 29, 9:24 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Schuyler	36 min
May 29, 3:08 PM CDT	Wind Advisory	EAX	Andrew, Atchison, Bates, Buchanan, Cass, Clay and 8 more	28 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Missouri, 2011 Every special weather statement in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.