Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
617 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED CUTOFF LOW MOVED INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION TUESDAY...AND IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO SWING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING. MULTIPLE
PERTURBATIONS ARE NOTED IN THE FLOW AROUND THE LOW...WITH TWO NOTABLE
UNDULATIONS SEEN THIS MORNING MOVING NORTH IN THE MERIDIONAL FLOW IN
THE KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER REGION. BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
WILL ENSURE THAT THE CUTOFF LOWS MIGRATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE UNITED STATES IS A SLOW ONE...AND THE DISTURBANCES MOVING
AROUND ITS PERIPHERY WILL MAKE ACCURATE TEMPERATURE AND/OR
PRECIPITATION FORECASTING BEYOND THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM RATHER
DIFFICULT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEAVING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
RATHER LOW AS A WHOLE.

THE CUTOFF LOW IS ALREADY SEEN TO BE STACKING ITSELF UP AS SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ARE ALMOST ANALYZED TO BE LINE UP...AND
INDICATIONS ARE AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS IT WILL
ONLY BECOME MORE BAROTROPIC. SHORT TO MID RANGE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE
THIS LOW TAKING ITS TIME TO MOVE EAST OF MISSOURI...WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST RUNS COMPLICATING MATERS EVEN MORE BY SUGGESTING THAT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL GET DRAWN INTO ITS CIRCULATION FROM THE
CANADIAN PLAINS ONLY TO THEN FUJIWHARA AROUND OVER THE CENTER OF THE
NATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXITING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER REGION ALONG WITH THE FIRST OF THE TWO
UNDULATIONS NOTED PREVIOUSLY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ADVERTISE THAT
STORMS WILL STILL BE PERCOLATING ACROSS OUR AREA AFTER SUNRISE...BUT
TIMING BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS WOULD INDICATE THAT IT
WILL LIKELY BE DRY THIS MORNING. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO WAIT TILL THE EVENING HOURS AS CONVECTION
ACTIVATES WELL TO OUR WEST ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN
TRIES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HOWEVER...FLOW LATER TODAY SHOULD STEER ANY
DEVELOPING STORMS NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST...WHICH IS NOT THE MOST
FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SEEING PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO MISSOURI FROM
KANSAS. HAVE LIMITED EVENING LIKELY POPS TO THE NORTHWEST CORNER AS
A RESULT...THEN SHOVED THEM EAST ALONG THE IOWA BORDER INTO NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FOCUS OF THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FARTHER EAST UNDER
THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE CUTOFF LOW. SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY
LOOKS VERY LOW OWING TO THE LACK OF SHEAR. OTHERWISE...FEEL THERE IS
A LARGE BUST POTENTIAL HERE AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTING
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THAT MATTER...ARE
KEYED IN ON VERY SUBTLE FEATURES WHICH THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO
HANDLE.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE IN OVERHEAD WITH THE
STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES WILL RESULTING IN STILL MORE CONVECTION.
MARGINALLY BETTER SHEAR...BUT STILL MARGINAL...WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH THE CUTOFF LOW. INSTABILITY IS ADVERTISED TO BE
RATHER GOOD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER AS
MUCAPE VALUES OF 3000+ J/KG ARE NOTED IN SEVERAL DIFFERENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WHICH COULD BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
THAT COULD BE COVERING THE REGION. SO...WHILE SEVERE WEATHER CAN NOT
BE EXCLUDED FROM THURSDAY STORMY FORECAST...THE MARGINAL SHEAR AND
QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE ALL SPEAK TO THE
POTENTIAL BEING LOW...BUT NOT ZERO...AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE INITIALLY DEFINED CUTOFF LOW
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF MISSOURI...BUT IS EXPECTED TO THEN PICK UP
A SHORTWAVE FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS. THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD A) KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND -WITH HIGHS MAYBE ONLY IN THE
60S- AND B) KEEP AT LEAST A MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY. STILL THINK THAT MONDAY AND BEYOND WILL
BE DRY GIVEN THAT A RIDGE WILL BE STARTING TO REPLACE THE CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE OVERALL BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE.

CUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...

DUAL SHORTWAVE LOBE STRETCH FROM OMAHA TO JUST EAST OF KANSAS CITY
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WEAKLY FORCED ELEVATED CONVECTION MAINLY EAST
OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
CLIP KMKC OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENTLY PASSING
WAVES...WITH AN INCREASE OF VFR CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION STILL AN UNCERTAINTY OTHERWISE DURING THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD AS THE PRIMARY DRIVE ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL NOT REACH THE
AREA...LEAVING SUBTLE WARM ADVECTION INDUCING WAVES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

DUE TO THE DEEPENING CYCLONE UPSTREAM...HAVE BACKED WINDS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY THAN OFFERED BY THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...AND
STILL EXPECT SOME PERIOD OF MINOR GUSTINESS THIS AFTERNOON.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
713 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

MOZ014-022-023-111245-
CALDWELL MO-DAVIESS MO-LIVINGSTON MO-
713 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON...
SOUTHEASTERN DAVIESS AND EASTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 745 AM
CDT...

AT 711 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BRECKENRIDGE...OR 10 MILES EAST OF
HAMILTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  CHILLICOTHE...BRECKENRIDGE...UTICA...JAMESPORT...DAWN...
  MOORESVILLE...LOCK SPRINGS AND SPRING HILL.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4001 9376 3996 9376 3996 9364 3986 9340
      3961 9369 3961 9376 3955 9376 3954 9378
      3966 9402 4006 9386
TIME...MOT...LOC 1213Z 207DEG 23KT 3971 9382

CUTTER