Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
708 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT...SUNDAY)...

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO WAS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI. A DRY LINE MET UP WITH THIS WARM FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THIS SET UP...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...RESULTED IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF KANSAS.

FOR TONIGHT...THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO THE
CWA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A 30-40KT LLJ AND
1500-2500 J/KG OF MU CAPE INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY...COULD SEE
SOME DECENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER SE KS...AND WEST CENTRAL TO
CENTRAL MO...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST NORTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...REACHING THE MO/IA BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND PUTTING
THE ENTIRE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES...REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES...ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTS 18-21C 850MB TEMPS OVER THE REGION.

A DRY LINE WILL ONCE AGAIN SET UP OVER CENTRAL KS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND A 40+ KT LLJ
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS DRY LINE...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST KS AND SOUTHEAST NE. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ANY CONVECTION SPREADING FURTHER EAST INTO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DUE
TO THE FLOW REMAINING ESSENTIALLY PARALLEL TO THE DRY LINE. THIS
FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA OF CONVECTION CONFINED TO A MORE NARROW
AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE TRACKING AND
POSITIONING OF THE DRY LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS SHOW THE DRY
LINE MOVING EASTWARD OVER EASTERN KANSAS SUNDAY MORNING...REACHING
THE MO/KS BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT
BEINGS TO LESSEN AS IT REACHES MISSOURI. MODELS SHOWING THE
INITIATION OF CONVECTION MOST LIKELY OCCURRING BETWEEN 20-22Z.
MODELS HAVE STARTED TO TREND TO A MORE POSITIVE TILT IN THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND A FASTER MOVING SYSTEM. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE DRYLINE...SOME DRIER AIR COULD BE ADVECTED
INTO THE REGION AND INHIBIT HOW FAR WEST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI THE
INITIATION OF STORMS COULD BE. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE STORMS TO
FORM A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES BEING POTENTIAL THREATS. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

ACH

A VERY POTENT SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH A QUIET PERIOD EARLY TO MIDWEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
POTENTIAL WEATHER-MAKER MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE VARIOUS
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE THU-FRI TIMEFRAME. INCONSISTENCIES ON THE
STRENGTH/DEPTH OF SAID SYSTEM BETWEEN GFS/NAEFS/EC/GEM. NAEFS
SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...SO WILL
TREND TO THE MEAN/MEDIAN SOLUTION.  SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF UPPER SYSTEM...WITH
GEFS/NAEFS ADVERTISING MORE PROMISING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...AND
ECMWF INDICATING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA.

SF

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...CONVECTION IN NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS SHOULD
BUILD/PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT CONGEALS INTO A COMPLEX AND
TRACKS TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ANY
PREVAILING THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE TERMINALS AS MAINLY THE
KANSAS CITY TERMINALS WOULD BE IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN AREA WITH MORE
ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDER. AFTER THE RAIN MOVES EAST A RELATIVELY
WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL LIKELY RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS
AND VSBYS. IFR CONDITIONS SEEM LIKELY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. DEEPER MIXING SHOULD THEN SCOUR CIGS AND VSBYS BACK TO VFR
BY LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE VALID PERIOD.

CB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
922 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     HAIL             3 NW GLADSTONE          39.24N 94.60W
04/08/2011  M1.25 INCH       CLAY               MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            AT BARRY ROAD AND HIGHWAY 169.

&&

GAMIS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
959 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

MOZ022-030-031-090345-
CALDWELL MO-CARROLL MO-RAY MO-
959 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL...
NORTHWESTERN CARROLL AND NORTHERN RAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 954 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
CRYSTAL LAKES TO EXCELSIOR SPRINGS TO HARDIN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  POLO...COWGILL...BRAYMER...KNOXVILLE...RUSSELLVILLE AND STET.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3961 9337 3929 9378 3933 9422 3936 9422
      3960 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 0259Z 245DEG 25KT 3939 9413 3934 9381

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