Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
541 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WAS BEGINNING TO SHEAR EAST
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG SPEED MAX SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA. THE
NOSE OF THE JET ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
MLCAPE/MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG HAS INITIATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
EASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE WARM FRONT WHICH MADE
IT AS FAR NORTH AS CASS COUNTY WAS SHIFTING SOUTH WITH THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADD SOME MOMENTUM TO THE FRONT. AS PER
THE MODEL GRIDS...THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...ENDING THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BY LATE EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS LARGE HAIL. FOR THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT...SEE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S NORTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE CONCERN SHIFTING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER WEATHER. MODELS HAVE HAD VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE DEFORMATION ZONE AS IT CROSSES INTO MISSOURI. PREFER THE LATEST
WEAKER SOLUTION OF THE RUC...LIMITING THE PRECIPITATION FOR
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. FROM WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI TO NORTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI...IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL COOLING. BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE...BELIEVE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE INCH
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL WATCH LATEST TRENDS THROUGH THE
EVENING.

ANY SNOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY MONDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...

FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT FOR SNOW LIQUID EQUIVALENT STILL
ON THE GROUND...AND EXPECTED QPF. HEADWATER GUIDANCE INDICATES ONLY
0.5 AND 1.5 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT NECESSARY TO PRODUCE RIVER
FLOODING FOR THE TYPICAL SUSPECTS. BASINS IN THE SRN CWA...WHILE NOT
HAVING A GREAT SNOW PACK...HAVE THE LOWEST GUIDANCE VALUES. WHILE
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER HAVE SUBSTANTIAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT READY TO BE RELEASED WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL. IF
THUNDERSTORMS HAPPEN TRAIN OVER THIS AREA JUST NORTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER WHERE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW FELL JUST DAYS AGO...MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING MAY VERY WELL BE POSSIBLE.

DB

MEDIUM RANGE (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

THERE IS STILL QUITE A SPREAD ON THE SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY. ECMWF HAS HAD SIGNIFICANT TROUBLE WITH CONTINUITY.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER EVENT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

DB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS AND INCREASING SURFACE WINDS HAS LED
TO AN INCREASE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE WARM FRONT WHICH WAS
ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF THE KC TERMINALS IS NOW MOVING SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT. WARM AND MOIST AIR RIDING NORTH ABOVE THE COLD
FRONT...ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION
THROUGH 03Z-04Z. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VARIABLE THIS
EVENING FROM IFR TO MVFR. AS COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...A
QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
PERIOD...LESS THAN ONE HOUR...OF SLEET. BY 12Z...THE SNOW WILL END
WITH RAPID GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

DB

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT FOR SNOW LIQUID EQUIVALENT STILL
ON THE GROUND...AND EXPECTED QPF. HEADWATER GUIDANCE INDICATES ONLY
0.5 AND 1.5 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT NECESSARY TO PRODUCE RIVER
FLOODING FOR THE TYPICAL SUSPECTS. BASINS IN THE SRN CWA...WHILE NOT
HAVING A GREAT SNOW PACK...HAVE THE LOWEST GUIDANCE VALUES. WHILE
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER HAVE SUBSTANTIAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT READY TO BE RELEASED WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL. IF
THUNDERSTORMS HAPPEN TRAIN OVER THIS AREA JUST NORTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER WHERE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW FELL JUST DAYS AGO...MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING MAY VERY WELL BE POSSIBLE.

DB

MEDIUM RANGE (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

THERE IS STILL QUITE A SPREAD ON THE SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY. ECMWF HAS HAD SIGNIFICANT TROUBLE WITH CONTINUITY.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER EVENT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
554 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-281115-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
554 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...ELEVATED.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
 RIVER AND URBAN AND LOW LYING AREA FLOODING.
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL.

DESPITE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING...NORTH OF A
COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM BUTLER TO BOONVILLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO MACON WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FROM
MOUND CITY KANSAS TO BUTLER TO BOONVILLE. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT UNTIL 9 PM.

THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOWMELT COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FLOODING OF LYING AREAS AND
URBAN AREAS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING IS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST JOSEPH TO KIRKSVILLE.

LATER TONIGHT...AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM...ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW. THE
INTENSITY OF THE STORM AND HOW FAST TEMPERATURES FALL IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND ONE INCH WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO TWO INCHES. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY
TO KIRKSVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL MISSOURI BETWEEN
6 AND 9 AM. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
644 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

MOZ033-040-280115-
HOWARD MO-RANDOLPH MO-
644 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RANDOLPH AND NORTHEASTERN HOWARD
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CST...

AT 643 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ARMSTRONG...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GLASGOW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HUNTSVILLE...MOBERLY...HIGBEE...CLARK...CAIRO AND RENICK.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3925 9231 3925 9243 3922 9244 3918 9271
      3940 9271 3959 9230
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 241DEG 50KT 3930 9269

CDB