Severe Thunderstorm Warning 275, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...

HEAT AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT
TERM...WHILE A RETURN TO VERY HOT TEMPERATURES BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR
THE EXTENDED.

FOR TONIGHT...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 70S PRODUCING HEAT INDICES IN THE 102-107 RANGE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY/WARNING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF A MARYVILLE TO
MACON LINE. TO THE NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED ALONG A
QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS COOLED TEMPS OFF INTO THE 70S
AND 80S SO THE HEAT HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN DROPPED.

FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING...AIRMASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AND
WEAKLY CAPPED. WITH DELTA THETA-E VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40 K AND
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES...AIRMASS REMAINS PRIMED FOR
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS/MICROBURSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INVOF THE LINGERING
QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BECOME ENHANCED BY THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW...AND WHERE DEEP SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THUS...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THE
EVENING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE BUILDING FURTHER WEST
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS IN ADVANCE OF A WELL-DEFINED...AND CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED...MIDLEVEL WAVE OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY
STRETCHES INTO NEBRASKA AND IOWA WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN
ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM SLOWLY TREKS EASTWARD
TONIGHT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.

FOR WEDS...COOLER 850 HPA TEMPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL BRING A RELATIVE COOL DOWN TO THE ENTIRE AREA...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN CWA. WHILE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. A CONTINUED UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
AIRMASS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR WEDS AND
AGAIN ON THURS.

UNSEASONABLY WARM 850 HPA TEMPS SURGE BACK INTO THE ENTIRE REGION ON
FRIDAY...CLIMBING INTO THE 24-27 C RANGE. DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITHIN A
DEEPENING UPPER RIDGE WILL FAVOR MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER
100S. THIS WILL VERY LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO DANGEROUS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND A HEAT WATCH MAY SOON BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY AND LASTING POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HAWBLITZEL

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS WELL-EVIDENT ON
RADAR EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST MO TO NEAR MCI. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK
TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...BUT ITS IMPACTS ON
MCI ARE UNCERTAIN AS THE BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN AND MAY JUST
BRIEFLY BACK THE WINDS THERE BEFORE IT MIXES OUT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINDS TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER A FEW HOURS. OF
BIGGER CONCERN IS THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A VERY
SLOWLY MOVING UPPER WAVE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE STJ-IRK CORRIDOR
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL BE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE THE
UPPER WAVE IS BETTER DEFINED. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF JUST WIDELY-
SCATTERED OR EVEN ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THE KC TERMINALS...WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A VCTS THROUGH 04Z. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS.

HAWBLITZEL

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MOZ011>014-020>024-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ001-002-004.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1251 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-131215-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1251 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A ST JOSEPH TO
MACON LINE CAN EXPECT HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP ANYWHERE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA...THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY FRIDAY...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH DANGEROUS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HAWBLITZEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
620 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     HAIL             E MAYSVILLE             39.89N 94.36W
07/12/2011  E0.75 INCH       DEKALB             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
623 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     HAIL             3 E MAYSVILLE           39.89N 94.30W
07/12/2011  E0.75 INCH       DEKALB             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HMORGAN

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