Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Kansas City, MO

836 
WWUS53 KEAX 092009
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
309 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

MOC001-121-092045-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-110609T2045Z/
MACON MO-ADAIR MO-
309 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ADAIR
AND NORTHERN MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 304 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE HAIL OF AT 
LEAST TENNIS BALL SIZE.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF LA 
PLATA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
 SOUTH GIFFORD...LA PLATA...MILLARD AND GIBBS.

THIS STORM CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY RAPIDLY AND VERY LARGE 
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3994 9235 3993 9278 4005 9284 4015 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 257DEG 26KT 4001 9266
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 2.00IN

$$

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516 
WWUS53 KEAX 092019
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
319 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

MOC001-121-092045-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-110609T2045Z/
MACON MO-ADAIR MO-
319 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ADAIR
AND NORTHERN MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 312 PM...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL 1 
MILE WEST OF SOUTH GIFFORD. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 
INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE 
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 
MILES WEST OF LA PLATA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LA PLATA...MILLARD AND GIBBS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3994 9235 3993 9278 4005 9284 4015 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 257DEG 26KT 4004 9259
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.75IN

$$

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621 
WWUS53 KEAX 092032
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
332 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

MOC001-121-092045-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-110609T2045Z/
MACON MO-ADAIR MO-
332 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ADAIR AND NORTH CENTRAL MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 328 PM...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED PING PONG BALL SIZE 
HAIL 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LA PLATA. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER 
RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE 
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LA PLATA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PERSONS IN LA PLATA NEED TO BE IN SAFE SHELTER AWAY FROM WINDOWS 
NOW!!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4010 9260 4015 9235 3994 9235 3993 9263
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 257DEG 26KT 4001 9249
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 2.50IN

$$

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283 
WWUS53 KEAX 092043
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
343 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

MOC001-121-092045-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-110609T2045Z/
MACON MO-ADAIR MO-
343 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ADAIR AND NORTH CENTRAL MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 336 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND 
PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM HAS A RECENT HISTORY OF 
PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WEST OF LA PLATA. THE MOST INTENSE 
PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF LA PLATA...MOVING EAST 
AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MACON AND   
  SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF ATLANTA AND EAST 
  OF LA PLATA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3994 9255 4011 9250 4014 9235 3994 9235
      3994 9244
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 257DEG 26KT 4003 9239
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1225 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FOCUS PRIMARILY ON CONVECTIVE
CHANCES FOR TODAY AS WELL AS THROUGH SATURDAY.

TODAY - TONIGHT:

THERE ARE SEVERAL DIFFERENT ITEMS TO WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION. THE FIRST IS ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA. CONVECTION IN
NORTHERN MO SEEMS TO HAVE INITIATED IN AN AREA OF HIGH THETA-E AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS CONVECTION HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME
MAINTAINING ITSELF...LIKELY THE RESULT OF LITTLE TO NO SHEAR TO HELP
ORGANIZE THE UPDRAFTS. THE CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN IOWA IS BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT BUT STILL IN A HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS ALOFT AND SEEMED TO
INITIATE IN AN AREA OF A STRONG THETA-E GRADIENT AROUND 875MB TO
825MB...INDICATIVE OF THE ELEVATED FRONT/FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS AREA.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO BE SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN MO AND THINK AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE PROCESS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY RETREATING NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MO BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KS/SOUTH CENTRAL NE. THIS SCENARIO MAINTAINS COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE IN THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY IN THE LOW 70S. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW BACKING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A HIGHLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT NEAR THE
QUASI-TRIPLE POINT IN NORTHCENTRAL TO NORTHEAST KANSAS. SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...PUSHING 50 KTS 0-6 KM AND 30-35KTS 0-3KM...INDICATING
THAT AS STORMS INITIATE THEY COULD QUICKLY ORGANIZE AND BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR WITH ALL ATTENDANT THREATS POSSIBLE. AS THE COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD THINK THAT STORMS MAY FORM INTO A POTENTIALLY
SEVERE LINE THAT THEN TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE MO RIVER. THE LATEST WRF-NMM...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE
A HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN IA SUPPORTS THIS
NOTION. DEPENDING ON WHERE WINDS CAN REMAIN BACKED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WHICH APPEARS MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN MO IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW...WE COULD BE SEEING A RISK FOR
TORNADOES WELL INTO THE EVENING.

FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT:

THE CONVECTION FROM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT DOESN'T QUITE DRIVE
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA AND AS A RESULT EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAIN IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AGAIN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHEAR LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY BUT STILL MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE STORMS. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO
THE NORTHEAST...SURFACE WINDS OVER OUR AREA SHOULD BE VEERED AND
LIMIT THE OVERALL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TO MORE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

SATURDAY:

THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
RELATIVELY COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE DAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS
TIME AND ACTIVITY WE WOULD SEE WOULD LIKELY BE CAST OFFS FROM
STRONGER CONVECTION TIED TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.

CDB

MEDIUM RANGE (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
ON SUNDAY...WHILE ELEVATED BOUNDARY LIFTS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.
LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EASTWARD NUDGING INTO THE CWA BY LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STAY QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER MO
VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE LOW MEANDERS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION ANY DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THERMAL
PROFILES AND POTENTIAL INHIBITION WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN
DETERMINING PRECIP CHANCES. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. AS FOR TEMPS...TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP AND CLOUDS...SO STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL
CONSENSUS BLEND.

HAWBLITZEL

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS WHICH
THE MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY THIS EVENING. WITH ONLY MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ATTM...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A CB GROUP AT KMCI AND KMKC UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE IS GAINED. FEEL THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE A LITTLE
HIGHER AT KSTJ SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY LATER TONIGHT.

DEROCHE

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1258 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-101115-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1258 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSOURI SOUTHWARD INTO EAST-
CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THIS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35
HOWEVER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
MISSOURI...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MOST
FAVORABLE TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 4PM TO 10PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY AND
FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PRINCETON TO ST JOSEPH LINE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO HIGHLIGHT A SPECIFIC
PERIOD.

DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND CELLS
MOVING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO AREAS OF FLOODING...AND COULD EXACERBATE THE ONGOING
MISSOURI RIVER FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI.

DEROCHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
937 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 AM     HAIL             2 N PRINCETON           40.43N 93.59W
06/09/2011  E0.75 INCH       MERCER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DDEROCHE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1000 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

MOZ006-007-015-016-091600-
GRUNDY MO-MERCER MO-PUTNAM MO-SULLIVAN MO-
1000 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SULLIVAN...SOUTHEASTERN
PUTNAM...SOUTHEASTERN MERCER AND NORTHEASTERN GRUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL
1100 AM CDT...

AT 952 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST EAST OF SPICKARD TO NEAR
UNIONVILLE. THESE STORMS WERE TRAINING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORM
THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF OSGOOD...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE REST OF THE LINE ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  UNIONVILLE...OSGOOD...HARRIS...NEWTOWN...POLLOCK...LEMONS...
  WORTHINGTON AND LIVONIA.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4058 9270 4056 9271 4056 9269 4053 9271
      4053 9269 4049 9269 4048 9270 4044 9271
      4042 9268 4035 9268 4034 9272 4034 9285
      4031 9285 4015 9353 4028 9358 4051 9303
      4059 9274
TIME...MOT...LOC 1459Z 252DEG 24KT 4023 9341

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