River Flood Warning 93, NWS Kansas City, MO

575 
WGUS83 KEAX 310959
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
459 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...
 
  PLATTE RIVER NEAR AGENCY 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...BUCHANAN


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC021-010959-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0093.000000T0000Z-110601T1217Z/
/AGYM7.1.ER.110530T2317Z.110531T0545Z.110531T1217Z.NO/
459 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PLATTE RIVER NEAR AGENCY.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 4:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THIS MORNING.
* AT 20.0 FEET...LOW-LYING AREAS EAST OF AGENCY BEGIN TO FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

PLATTE RIVER
  AGENCY          20   20.9   TUE  4 AM   20.2 THIS MORNING

$$

420 
WGUS83 KEAX 311417
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
916 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011
  
...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...
 
  PLATTE RIVER NEAR AGENCY
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...BUCHANAN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC021-311446-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0093.000000T0000Z-110601T1217Z/
/AGYM7.1.ER.110530T2317Z.110531T0545Z.110531T1218Z.NO/
916 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE PLATTE RIVER NEAR AGENCY.
* AT  8:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 7:18 AM TUESDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 12.4 FEET BY 
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

PLATTE RIVER
  AGENCY          20   19.5   TUE 08 AM   17.9 THIS AFTERNOON

$$

SAW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
628 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED THE MAXIMUM HEATING POTENTIAL...THEREBY
LIMITING MIXING AND KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE WESTERN GRIDS. HOWEVER...A FEW GUSTS HAVE MET
CRITERIA AND WILL HOLD ADVISORY FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION THAT
MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE COLORADO/UTAH AND
WYOMING BORDER...WITH THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST. SURFACE BOUNDARY
IN WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAS MOVED LITTLE...WAITING FOR THE ARRIVAL
OF THE SHORTWAVE. CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DUE TO
STRONG SHEAR AND GOOD INSTABILITY. A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST...THE LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LOSE UPPER AIR SUPPORT AS THE
300 MB JET ROTATES THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA. A
STRONG CAP IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH THE
ONLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF THE CAP EXPECTED FOR THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF MISSOURI. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THAT MUCAPES WILL
ONLY BE AROUND 1500-1800 J/KG WITH ONLY WEAK CLOUD BEARING EFFECTIVE
SHEAR. AS A RESULT... EXPECT THE LINE OF CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXISTS ON HOW
QUICK THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN. THEREFORE...A FEW STORMS MAY BE
ABLE TO MAINTAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS FOR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE IN A RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING STAGE AS IT MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THE WEAK COLD FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME...THE CAP HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
3000 J/KG IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS
QUITE WEAK. REGARDLESS...CANNOT RULE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF MISSOURI. MODELS SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE AREAS OF INSTABILITY. THIS IS AT
LEAST PARTLY DUE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE ALSO SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. HAVE NO CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY
WAVE...BUT GIVEN THERE MAY BE A WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...WILL INTRODUCE LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN
MISSOURI DUE TO VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE.

DB

THURSDAY - MONDAY:

MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DEPICTING A RIDGE MOSTLY
HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THINGS BECOME A LITTLE MURKY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND AS A WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND FLATTENS THE
RIDGE OUT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI IN THE FORM OF DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW REGARDING THIS SCENARIO AND FOR NOW WILL KEEP
THE EXTENDED DRY. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD AGAIN AS THE
NORTHERN WAVE MOVES AWAY AND WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS SATURDAY HOWEVER NORTHERN MISSOURI MAY ONLY REACH
THE MID 80S. NONE-THE-LESS...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

CDB

&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS WINDS INCREASE
AROUND 2KFT...BUT THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE ONCE SUN GOES DOWN. MAIN FOCUS
IS THE LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND COULD BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING. TIMING WOULD BRING THIS
INTO FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AROUND 09Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN. DEEP
FORCING WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DECREASE BY THIS TIME AS UPPER TROUGH
SKIRTS THE AREA TO THE NORTH...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY COULD
QUICKLY DECREASE TO SHOWERS OR NOTHING AT ALL AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...THIS MAY NOT BEGIN TO
OCCUR SOON ENOUGH TO PREVENT WEAKENING CONVECTION FROM MAKING INTO
THE KC AREA...AND GIVEN PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF CB AND VCTS TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WEAKENING CONVECTION SURVIVING THIS FAR EAST. REMOVED
LLWS SINCE NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASED SURFACE
WINDS WILL KEEP THIS IMPACT MINIMIZED.

HAWBLITZEL

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ001>004-011>013-
     020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
642 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-311200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
642 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTING TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. A FEW LOCATIONS
COULD SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH THROUGH THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 2 AM BRINGING A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT IN NEBRASKA AND PERHAPS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY
APPROACH WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI LATER TONIGHT.
REGARDLESS...A FEW STORMS MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE AS THEY ENTER
MISSOURI. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS. THE HIGHEST THREAT
AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM ATCHISON KANSAS TO GRANT CITY MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BOONVILLE TO SEDALIA.
THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR
WILL BE QUITE WEAK...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. THE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS
AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI.

HAWBLITZEL