River Flood Warning 53, NWS Kansas City, MO

234 
WGUS83 KEAX 121443
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
943 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAM...
 
  102 RIVER AT MARYVILLE 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...ANDREW...NODAWAY

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAM...

  MISSOURI RIVER AT ST JOSEPH 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KANSAS...DONIPHAN AND IN 
MISSOURI...ANDREW...BUCHANAN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC003-147-131443-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-110514T0218Z/
/MYVM7.1.ER.110512T1223Z.110512T1530Z.110513T0218Z.UU/
943 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE 102 RIVER AT MARYVILLE.
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
* AT  9:30 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 20.9 FEET BY LATE
  THIS MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.
* AT 18.0 FEET...THE EAST BANK OF THE RIVER FLOODS. WATER ALSO 
  APPROACHES THE VILLAGE OF ARKOE.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

102 RIVER
  MARYVILLE       18   20.5   THU 09 AM   20.9 LATE THIS MORNING

$$

KSC043-MOC003-021-131442-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0051.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SJSM7.1.ER.110512T0945Z.110513T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
943 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSOURI RIVER AT ST JOSEPH.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT  9:30 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 20.4 FEET BY 
  FRIDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 19.0 FEET...BACKWATER FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER FLOODS PROPERTY 
  ALONG THE NODAWAY RIVER AT NODAWAY MISSOURI.
* AT 17.0 FEET...LOWLAND FLOODING UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FROM ST. 
  JOSEPH OCCURS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MISSOURI RIVER
  ST JOSEPH       17   17.7   THU 09 AM   20.4 FRIDAY MORNING

$$

434 
WGUS83 KEAX 122345
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
644 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...
 
  102 RIVER AT MARYVILLE
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...ANDREW...NODAWAY

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...

  102 RIVER AT ROSENDALE 
  MISSOURI RIVER AT ST JOSEPH 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KANSAS...DONIPHAN AND IN 
MISSOURI...ANDREW...BUCHANAN


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC003-147-130014-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-110514T0218Z/
/MYVM7.1.ER.110512T1223Z.110512T1830Z.110512T2241Z.UU/
644 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE 102 RIVER AT MARYVILLE.
* AT 6:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 5:41 PM THURSDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 14.1 FEET BY FRIDAY 
  MORNING.


&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

102 RIVER
  MARYVILLE       18   16.9   THU  6 PM   16.8 THIS EVENING

$$

MOC003-021-132343-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-110514T1408Z/
/RSDM7.2.ER.000000T0000Z.110513T0600Z.110513T1408Z.NO/
644 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE 102 RIVER AT ROSENDALE.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 4:03 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 19.1 FEET BY 
  EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 19.0 FEET...STATE ROUTE 48 ON THE EAST AND WEST SIDES OF 
  ROSENDALE IS UNDER WATER.
* AT 18.0 FEET...STATE ROUTE 48 ON THE EAST SIDE OF ROSENDALE IS 
  OVERTOPPED BY FLOOD WATERS.
* AT 13.0 FEET...LOWLAND AGRICULTURAL FLOODING BEGINS.


&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

102 RIVER
  ROSENDALE       18   18.6   THU  4 PM   19.1 EARLY FRIDAY MORNING

$$

KSC043-MOC003-021-132343-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0051.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SJSM7.1.ER.110512T0945Z.110513T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
644 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSOURI RIVER AT ST JOSEPH.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 6:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 20.4 FEET BY 
  FRIDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 19.0 FEET...BACKWATER FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER FLOODS PROPERTY 
  ALONG THE NODAWAY RIVER AT NODAWAY MISSOURI.
* AT 17.0 FEET...LOWLAND FLOODING UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FROM ST. 
  JOSEPH OCCURS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MISSOURI RIVER
  ST JOSEPH       17   19.3   THU  6 PM   20.4 FRIDAY MORNING

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
428 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...

WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE TIED TO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS UPPER LOW. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CENTER
OVER EAST CENTRAL CO HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS
BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT KEEPS SYSTEMS ON A HOLD PATTERN.
HOWEVER...MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONTINUITY INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY
THE LOW WILL INITIALLY DRIFT ENE TODAY BEFORE TURNING TO THE ESE
TOMORROW. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR RENEWED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON THURSDAY.

EARLIER SHORTWAVES WHICH GENERATED A COUPLE ROUNDS OF ACTIVE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE REGION
AND SCOURED OUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. SUBSIDENCE AND A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS NOW ENVELOPES THE REGION AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS NO DISCERNIBLE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES WHICH COULD IMPACT THE CWA
IN THE NEAR FUTURE. SO WILL REMOVE POPS FROM THIS MORNINGS FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY HAD MORE INSTABILITY THAN TODAY BUT ANTICIPATING ENOUGH
HEATING COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL...TO PRODUCE MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. THIS
MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KTS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS. WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANT BE RULED OUT AN ENVIRONMENT DENOTED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
LOW SHEAR WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
STORMS. 00Z NAM/GFS H7 PROGS PROVIDE BEST CLUE ON POTENTIAL
INITIATION AS A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES FROM WESTERN OK NEWD INTO
WESTERN MO BY 00Z. THIS FEATURE SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE N-S SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH WILL LIE ACROSS EASTERN KS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WHILE CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDING IS NOT CERTAIN SINCE NO
SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT ATTM...SHOULD A LINE OF STORMS FORM THE CURRENT
QPF FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE UNDERDONE.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHILE THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM WORKS EASTWARD. EVENTUALLY THE TRUE COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND
USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

MJ

MEDIUM RANGE (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WORK WEEK...THE REGION WILL BE COOL BUT HAVE A DECENT CHANCE TO DRY
OUT FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN THAT IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
MODEL DISAGREEMENTS MOSTLY POP-UP IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AS TO HOW TO HANDLE THE CUTOFF LOWS ABSORPTION INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS HAS LITTLE NOTABLE EFFECT ON
OUR FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS THE SENSIBLE CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA
WONT BE IMPACTED.

THE CUTOFF LOW -CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS-
WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY...BUT ALL THE MODELS ALSO STILL
CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
INGESTING A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE CUTOFF
LOW...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR SOME
AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO EDGE UP AS WE TRAVERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE WARM UP COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY MUTED BY A
COOL SURFACE RIDGE THAT WILL BE FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF THE
EXITING CUTOFF LOW. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE FLANK OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO LIKELY INHIBIT MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
THE EARLY PORTION THE WORK WEEK...SO HAVE OPTED TO IGNORE THE LOW
END POPS SOME MID-RANGE MODELS ADVERTISE FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AS
WE MOVE TO WEDNESDAY A STRONG EAST PACIFIC JET DIVING IN UNDER THE
WEST COAST TROUGH PORTION OF OUR BLOCKING PATTERN...WILL LIKELY
ENHANCE MOISTURE RETURN AND LIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILLED TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS THE
PLAINS. HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
AFTER WEDNESDAY THE WEATHER COULD BECOME MORE INTERESTING AS THE
WEST CONUS TROUGH EVENTUALLY FORCES THE FLOW BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST...POTENTIALLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT THIS JUST BEYOND OUR CURRENT MEDIUM
RANGE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

CUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...

PRECIP IS WINDING DOWN AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
THE BIGGEST SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS THAT
DEVELOP WITH THE REMNANT GROUND MOISTURE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
ALREADY SEEING TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS CLOSE TO SATURATION...SO EXPECT
VSBYS TO DIP INTO AT LEAST MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER IF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FORCING MECHANISMS ARE NOT EASY TO PINPOINT AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP A BROAD MENTION OF VCTS/CB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WHEN CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY.

HAWBLITZEL

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
506 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-131015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
506 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS
TODAY. SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY
INITIALLY FORM OVER EASTERN KANSAS ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI. A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT LOW
AND MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE TORNADOES CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT...THIS TYPE
OF ENVIRONMENT FAVORS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND TYPE THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LOSE THEIR INTENSITY BY LATE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI ON FRIDAY...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MJ