River Flood Warning 135, NWS Kansas City, MO

296 
WGUS83 KEAX 201122
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
522 AM CST TUE DEC 20 2011
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI...
 
  BIG CREEK AT BLAIRSTOWN AFFECTING CASS...HENRY AND JOHNSON COUNTIES.

  LAMINE RIVER NEAR OTTERVILLE AFFECTING COOPER COUNTY.

  PETITE SALINE CREEK NEAR BOONVILLE AFFECTING COOPER COUNTY.

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI... 

  BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY AFFECTING JOHNSON AND PETTIS 
  COUNTIES.
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK AFFECTING COOPER AND SALINE 
  COUNTIES.
  SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH AFFECTING BATES...CASS AND HENRY 
  COUNTIES.
  WAKENDA CREEK AT CARROLLTON AFFECTING CARROLL COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC037-083-101-211122-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0137.111220T1122Z-111222T1242Z/
/BLRM7.1.ER.111220T0935Z.111220T1800Z.111221T1242Z.UU/
522 AM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG CREEK AT BLAIRSTOWN.
* FROM EARLY THIS MORNING TO THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT  5:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 22.5 FEET BY THIS
  AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 20.0 FEET...THE WEST BANK OF THE CREEK BEGINS TO FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BIG CREEK
  BLAIRSTOWN      20   21.6   TUE 05 AM   22.5 THIS AFTERNOON

$$

MOC101-159-211121-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0131.000000T0000Z-111222T0831Z/
/VLYM7.2.ER.111220T0958Z.111220T1800Z.111221T0831Z.NO/
522 AM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY.
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT  5:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 25.6 FEET BY THIS
  AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY 
  MORNING.
* AT 25.0 FEET...COUNTY HIGHWAY E NEAR VALLEY CITY AND HIGHWAY 23 
  NEAR THE PERRY STATE WILDLIFE AREA ARE UNDER WATER.
* AT 22.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND FARM FIELDS ALONG THE RIVER BEGIN TO 
  FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  VALLEY CITY     22   23.6   TUE 05 AM   25.6 THIS AFTERNOON

$$

MOC053-195-211121-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0132.000000T0000Z-111224T1007Z/
/BLVM7.1.ER.111220T1135Z.111222T0000Z.111223T1007Z.NO/
522 AM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* AT  4:45 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THIS MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 27.1 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   20.0   TUE 05 AM   27.1 WEDNESDAY EVENING

$$

MOC053-211121-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0133.111220T1644Z-111222T1456Z/
/OTTM7.2.ER.111220T1644Z.111221T0600Z.111221T1456Z.NO/
522 AM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LAMINE RIVER NEAR OTTERVILLE.
* FROM THIS MORNING TO THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT  4:15 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
  TO RISE TO NEAR 20.3 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 18.0 FEET...SOME GRAVEL ROADS UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FROM 
  OTTERVILLE ARE UNDER WATER. IN ADDITION STATE HIGHWAY 135 MAY BE 
  OVERTOPPED BY FLOOD WATERS 2 MILES NORTH OF CLIFTON CITY.
* AT 15.0 FEET...LOW LYING WOODLANDS AND FIELDS ALONG THE RIVER 
  FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

LAMINE RIVER
  OTTERVILLE      15    9.1   TUE 04 AM   20.3 EARLY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING

$$

MOC053-211121-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0134.111220T1142Z-111222T1014Z/
/BONM7.2.ER.111220T1142Z.111221T0000Z.111221T1014Z.UU/
522 AM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PETITE SALINE CREEK NEAR BOONVILLE.
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT  4:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THIS MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 20.8 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 19.5 FEET...THE CREEK FLOODS U HIGHWAY ABOUT 4 MILES SOUTHEAST 
  OF BOONVILLE.
* AT 16.0 FEET...LOW LYING WOODLANDS AND FIELDS NEAR THE CREEK FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

PETITE SALINE CREEK
  BOONVILLE       16   13.5   TUE 04 AM   20.8 THIS EVENING

$$

MOC013-037-083-211121-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0135.111220T1900Z-111222T1446Z/
/URHM7.1.ER.111220T1900Z.111221T0600Z.111221T1446Z.UU/
522 AM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT  8:18 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 25.2 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WITHIN 0.5 TO 1.5 
  MILES OF THE RIVER. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE LOW LYING PASTURES ALONG
  WITH CROPLAND AND SECONDARY ROADS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

SOUTH GRAND RIVER
  URICH           24   12.1   MON 08 AM   25.2 EARLY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING

$$

MOC033-211121-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0136.111220T1306Z-111222T0155Z/
/CAXM7.1.ER.111220T1306Z.111220T1800Z.111221T0155Z.UU/
522 AM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE WAKENDA CREEK AT CARROLLTON.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* AT  5:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 18.2 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.
* AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING UNDEVELOPED AREAS ALONG THE 
  CREEK BEGINS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

WAKENDA CREEK
  CARROLLTON      16   12.7   TUE 05 AM   18.2 THIS AFTERNOON

$$

807 
WGUS43 KEAX 201443
FLWEAX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED          
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
843 AM CST TUE DEC 20 2011
  
...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE 
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSOURI...

  SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH AFFECTING BATES...CASS AND HENRY 
  COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC013-037-083-211443-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0135.111220T1441Z-111222T2000Z/
/URHM7.2.ER.111220T1315Z.111221T0000Z.111221T2000Z.UU/
843 AM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH.

* FROM THIS MORNING TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  8:11 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26.6 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY 
  AFTERNOON.
* AT 24.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WITHIN 0.5 TO 1.5 
  MILES OF THE RIVER. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE LOW LYING PASTURES ALONG
  WITH CROPLAND AND SECONDARY ROADS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

SOUTH GRAND RIVER
  URICH           24   24.5   TUE 08 AM   26.6 THIS EVENING

$$

955 
WGUS83 KEAX 202010
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
210 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI...
 
  BIG CREEK AT BLAIRSTOWN AFFECTING CASS...HENRY AND JOHNSON COUNTIES.

  BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY AFFECTING JOHNSON AND PETTIS 
  COUNTIES.

  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK AFFECTING COOPER AND SALINE 
  COUNTIES.

  LAMINE RIVER NEAR OTTERVILLE AFFECTING COOPER COUNTY.

  PETITE SALINE CREEK NEAR BOONVILLE AFFECTING COOPER COUNTY.

  WAKENDA CREEK AT CARROLLTON AFFECTING CARROLL COUNTY.

  SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH AFFECTING BATES...CASS AND HENRY 
  COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC037-083-101-212010-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0137.000000T0000Z-111222T1813Z/
/BLRM7.2.ER.111220T0935Z.111220T2115Z.111221T1813Z.UU/
210 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG CREEK AT BLAIRSTOWN.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  1:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 23.0 FEET BY LATE
  THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY 
  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 23.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS AT THE WEST APPROACH TO THE N 
  HIGHWAY BRIDGE LOCATED 0.2 MILES WEST OF BLAIRSTOWN. FLOODING ALSO 
  OCCURS ACROSS B HIGHWAY NEAR BIG CREEK WHICH IS SEVERAL MILES 
  NORTHWEST OF BLAIRSTOWN.
* AT 20.0 FEET...THE WEST BANK OF THE CREEK BEGINS TO FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BIG CREEK
  BLAIRSTOWN      20   22.9   TUE 01 PM   23.0 LATE THIS AFTERNOON

$$

MOC101-159-212009-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0131.000000T0000Z-111222T0928Z/
/VLYM7.2.ER.111220T0958Z.111221T0000Z.111221T0928Z.NO/
210 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY.
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT  1:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26.4 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 25.0 FEET...COUNTY HIGHWAY E NEAR VALLEY CITY AND HIGHWAY 23 
  NEAR THE PERRY STATE WILDLIFE AREA ARE UNDER WATER.
* AT 22.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND FARM FIELDS ALONG THE RIVER BEGIN TO 
  FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  VALLEY CITY     22   26.2   TUE 01 PM   26.4 THIS EVENING

$$

MOC053-195-212009-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0132.000000T0000Z-111224T1242Z/
/BLVM7.1.ER.111220T1638Z.111222T0600Z.111223T1242Z.NO/
210 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT  1:45 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 27.2 FEET BY 
  EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   24.8   TUE 02 PM   27.2 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING

$$

MOC053-212009-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0133.000000T0000Z-111222T0923Z/
/OTTM7.2.ER.111220T1454Z.111221T0000Z.111221T0923Z.NO/
210 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LAMINE RIVER NEAR OTTERVILLE.
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT  1:15 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 19.1 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 18.0 FEET...SOME GRAVEL ROADS UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FROM 
  OTTERVILLE ARE UNDER WATER. IN ADDITION STATE HIGHWAY 135 MAY BE 
  OVERTOPPED BY FLOOD WATERS 2 MILES NORTH OF CLIFTON CITY.
* AT 15.0 FEET...LOW LYING WOODLANDS AND FIELDS ALONG THE RIVER 
  FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

LAMINE RIVER
  OTTERVILLE      15   16.9   TUE 01 PM   19.1 THIS EVENING

$$

MOC053-212009-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0134.000000T0000Z-111222T1800Z/
/BONM7.1.ER.111220T1411Z.111221T0600Z.111221T1800Z.UU/
210 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PETITE SALINE CREEK NEAR BOONVILLE.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  1:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 18.5 FEET BY 
  EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 16.0 FEET...LOW LYING WOODLANDS AND FIELDS NEAR THE CREEK FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

PETITE SALINE CREEK
  BOONVILLE       16   16.9   TUE 01 PM   18.5 EARLY WEDNESDAY MORN

$$

MOC013-037-083-212009-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0135.000000T0000Z-111222T2000Z/
/URHM7.2.ER.111220T1315Z.111221T0000Z.111221T2000Z.UU/
210 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  1:24 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26.6 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY 
  AFTERNOON.
* AT 24.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WITHIN 0.5 TO 1.5 
  MILES OF THE RIVER. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE LOW LYING PASTURES ALONG
  WITH CROPLAND AND SECONDARY ROADS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

SOUTH GRAND RIVER
  URICH           24   25.9   TUE 01 PM   26.6 THIS EVENING

$$

MOC033-212009-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0136.000000T0000Z-111222T1941Z/
/CAXM7.1.ER.111220T2235Z.111221T1200Z.111221T1941Z.UU/
210 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE WAKENDA CREEK AT CARROLLTON.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  2:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 17.5 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING UNDEVELOPED AREAS ALONG THE 
  CREEK BEGINS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

WAKENDA CREEK
  CARROLLTON      16   15.4   TUE 02 PM   17.5 WEDNESDAY MORNING

$$

602 
WGUS83 KEAX 210112
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
712 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2011
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI...
 
  BIG CREEK AT BLAIRSTOWN AFFECTING CASS...HENRY AND JOHNSON COUNTIES.

  BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY AFFECTING JOHNSON AND PETTIS 
  COUNTIES.

  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK AFFECTING COOPER AND SALINE 
  COUNTIES.

  LAMINE RIVER NEAR OTTERVILLE AFFECTING COOPER COUNTY.

  SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH AFFECTING BATES...CASS AND HENRY 
  COUNTIES.

  WAKENDA CREEK AT CARROLLTON AFFECTING CARROLL COUNTY.

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI... 

  PETITE SALINE CREEK NEAR BOONVILLE AFFECTING COOPER COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC037-083-101-220112-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0137.000000T0000Z-111222T0831Z/
/BLRM7.1.ER.111220T0935Z.111220T1730Z.111221T0831Z.UU/
712 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG CREEK AT BLAIRSTOWN.
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT  7:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 20.0 FEET...THE WEST BANK OF THE CREEK BEGINS TO FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BIG CREEK
  BLAIRSTOWN      20   21.7   TUE 07 PM   20.8 EARLY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING

$$

MOC101-159-220111-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0131.000000T0000Z-111222T1140Z/
/VLYM7.2.ER.111220T0958Z.111220T2230Z.111221T1140Z.NO/
712 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY.
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT  6:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 25.0 FEET...COUNTY HIGHWAY E NEAR VALLEY CITY AND HIGHWAY 23 
  NEAR THE PERRY STATE WILDLIFE AREA ARE UNDER WATER.
* AT 22.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND FARM FIELDS ALONG THE RIVER BEGIN TO 
  FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  VALLEY CITY     22   26.3   TUE 06 PM   25.5 EARLY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING

$$

MOC053-195-220111-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0132.000000T0000Z-111224T1352Z/
/BLVM7.1.ER.111220T1638Z.111222T0600Z.111223T1352Z.NO/
712 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT  6:45 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 27.3 FEET BY 
  EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   25.4   TUE 07 PM   27.3 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING

$$

MOC053-220111-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0133.000000T0000Z-111222T0840Z/
/OTTM7.1.ER.111220T1454Z.111220T2345Z.111221T0840Z.NO/
712 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LAMINE RIVER NEAR OTTERVILLE.
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT  6:15 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 15.0 FEET...LOW LYING WOODLANDS AND FIELDS ALONG THE RIVER 
  FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

LAMINE RIVER
  OTTERVILLE      15   17.3   TUE 06 PM   16.6 EARLY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING

$$

MOC053-220111-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0134.000000T0000Z-111222T1800Z/
/BONM7.1.ER.111220T1411Z.111221T0600Z.111221T1800Z.UU/
712 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PETITE SALINE CREEK NEAR BOONVILLE.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  6:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 17.9 FEET BY 
  EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 16.0 FEET...LOW LYING WOODLANDS AND FIELDS NEAR THE CREEK FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

PETITE SALINE CREEK
  BOONVILLE       16   17.4   TUE 06 PM   17.9 EARLY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING

$$

MOC013-037-083-220111-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0135.000000T0000Z-111222T1518Z/
/URHM7.2.ER.111220T1315Z.111221T0600Z.111221T1518Z.UU/
712 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH.
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT  4:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26.0 FEET BY 
  EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WITHIN 0.5 TO 1.5 
  MILES OF THE RIVER. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE LOW LYING PASTURES ALONG
  WITH CROPLAND AND SECONDARY ROADS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

SOUTH GRAND RIVER
  URICH           24   25.9   TUE 04 PM   26.0 EARLY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING

$$

MOC033-220111-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0136.000000T0000Z-111222T1545Z/
/CAXM7.1.ER.111221T0339Z.111221T1200Z.111221T1545Z.UU/
712 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE WAKENDA CREEK AT CARROLLTON.
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT  7:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 16.5 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING UNDEVELOPED AREAS ALONG THE 
  CREEK BEGINS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

WAKENDA CREEK
  CARROLLTON      16   15.7   TUE 07 PM   16.5 WEDNESDAY MORNING

$$

449 
WGUS83 KEAX 211111
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
511 AM CST WED DEC 21 2011
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI...
 
  BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY AFFECTING JOHNSON AND PETTIS 
  COUNTIES.

  SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH AFFECTING BATES...CASS AND HENRY 
  COUNTIES.

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI... 

  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK AFFECTING COOPER AND SALINE 
  COUNTIES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC101-159-221111-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0131.000000T0000Z-111222T1147Z/
/VLYM7.2.ER.111220T0958Z.111220T2230Z.111221T1147Z.NO/
511 AM CST WED DEC 21 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT  4:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THIS MORNING.
* AT 22.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND FARM FIELDS ALONG THE RIVER BEGIN TO 
  FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  VALLEY CITY     22   23.7   WED 04 AM   21.8 THIS MORNING

$$

MOC053-195-221110-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0132.000000T0000Z-111224T1352Z/
/BLVM7.1.ER.111220T1638Z.111222T0600Z.111223T1352Z.NO/
511 AM CST WED DEC 21 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT  4:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 27.3 FEET BY 
  EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   25.8   WED 05 AM   27.3 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING

$$

MOC013-037-083-221110-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0135.000000T0000Z-111222T1528Z/
/URHM7.1.ER.111220T1315Z.111220T2230Z.111221T1528Z.UU/
511 AM CST WED DEC 21 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH.
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT  4:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE THIS MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WITHIN 0.5 TO 1.5 
  MILES OF THE RIVER. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE LOW LYING PASTURES ALONG
  WITH CROPLAND AND SECONDARY ROADS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

SOUTH GRAND RIVER
  URICH           24   25.9   TUE 04 PM   25.1 THIS MORNING

$$

530 
WGUS83 KEAX 211442
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
842 AM CST WED DEC 21 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI...
 
  BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY AFFECTING JOHNSON AND PETTIS 
  COUNTIES.

  SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH AFFECTING BATES...CASS AND HENRY 
  COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC101-159-211512-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0131.000000T0000Z-111222T1147Z/
/VLYM7.2.ER.111220T0958Z.111220T2230Z.111221T1321Z.NO/
842 AM CST WED DEC 21 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY.
* AT  8:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  7:21 AM WEDNESDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 13.8 FEET BY THURSDAY
  MORNING.
* AT 22.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND FARM FIELDS ALONG THE RIVER BEGIN TO 
  FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  VALLEY CITY     22   21.7   WED 08 AM   20.3 THIS AFTERNOON

$$

MOC013-037-083-211512-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0135.000000T0000Z-111222T1528Z/
/URHM7.1.ER.111220T1315Z.111220T2230Z.111221T0602Z.UU/
842 AM CST WED DEC 21 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH.
* AT  8:04 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 12:02 AM WEDNESDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 13.3 FEET BY THURSDAY
  MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WITHIN 0.5 TO 1.5 
  MILES OF THE RIVER. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE LOW LYING PASTURES ALONG
  WITH CROPLAND AND SECONDARY ROADS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

SOUTH GRAND RIVER
  URICH           24   21.9   WED 08 AM   20.6 THIS AFTERNOON

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1122 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

Classic panhandle low now moving towards KLBB will be centered near
KICT around 18Z Tuesday, and the KMCI-KTOP vicinity by 00Z
Wednesday. WV imagery depicts impressively large diffluent jet exit
region throughout the srn/cntrl plains, with impressive synoptic
scale dynamic lift allowing a shield of precipitation to blossom
throughout the entire region. Advection of dry air through far
northern Missouri and limiting streamlines through the H8-H7 layer
has limited to northward progress of radar echoes, but this is only
a temporary process for the next 6-12 hours. Multiple weather
impacts can be expected through the next 48 hours, not limited to
winter weather types, flood potential, and embedded convection.

First, moisture flux through the warm sector and weak elevated
instability has allowed for the maintenance of embedded
thunderstorms into srn Kansas. The northward extent of the
instability axis is forecast to just clip into the srn extent of the
forecast area this evening, and additional lift and slantwise ascent
may keep a few convective elements in tact through 06Z. However,
other than the sporadic lightning strike, little other impact is
immediately likely. However, persistent widespread moderate rainfall
will continue along and south of the Missouri River through the
evening and much of the overnight hours. Subjective bias corrected
model qpf is in surprisingly good agreement with totals in the
1.00-1.50 inch range, manifested from 8-10 hours of 0.10-0.20
precipitation rates. Thus, while the flash flooding threat is nearly
nil, minor flooding of smaller rivers and streams through west
central and central Missouri is certainly possible. Please refer to
the STLESFEAX product for more details.

Well defined deformation banding structure and dynamic cooling
within the western diffluent zone, characterized by an ageostrophic
circulation to the north and northwest of the mid level circulation
center, was rapidly materializing through SW KS/SE CO/NRN NM/OK/TX
Panhandle region. Change over to SN/FZRA has occurred in the past 3
hours in SW KS with models forecasting this transition to spread
north and east throughout cntrl Kansas over the next 6 hours.
Locally, the sfc frontal boundary has moved into the southern cwa,
and should stall over the Ozark plateau through Tuesday afternoon.
With a general lack of cold air north of this front, it will take
until the true dynamic cooling and PV anomaly center gets much
closer to the forecast area until low level temperatures cool
sufficiently to support a change over or mixed phase types. This
will likely not happen until after midnight, with 12Z models even
slower, not bringing snow into NE KS/NW MO until close to 12Z
Tuesday. Have gone with a slightly faster progression and change
over based on past history with these intense ejecting southwest
lows.

Only subtle differences in temperatures profiles through the
atmospheric column between models is making a tremendous influence
on forecast precipitation types. 12Z GFS soundings have maintained a
cooler look, with a sfc-H7 column hugging at or just below 0C along
and north of a Kansas City to Kirksville line; while the 12Z NAM
continues to show a distinct "warm" nose in the easterly flow in the
H8-H9 layer, in addition to keeping the sfc temperatures just above
freezing. Thinking the denser sigma levels in the NAM12, and
magnitude of warm, moist air advecting north of the cyclone will
indeed create some sort of warm nose, such that a corridor of
multiple precipitation type will be likely along that aforementioned
MCI-IRK line. And even this partial transition is contingent in near
sfc temperatures cooling sufficiently to prevent melting, and this
portion of the forecast is also uncertain given the lack of caa.

Pronounced dry slot mentioned in past several forecast discussions
still appears on track to overspread much of the region Tuesday
morning and afternoon, acting to remove most ice nuclei for crystal
formation (sans the far NW cwa remaining in the eastern periphery of
the decaying deformation band). Have cut pops through much of the
area, thinking more extensive dz/fzdz will be the predominant type.
With minimal advective and evaporational cooling, feel sfc
temperatures will respond such that fzdz will be limited in time and
space, and overall would not be surprised if locations south of the
Missouri River saw little to no accumulating precipitation
throughout the daylight hours. Further to the northwest, light snow
should continue as the deformation band weakens with the
deterioration of the trowal axis. Thus, expecting most accumulation
around the 12Z time frame, with a stripe of 2-4 inches through an
Atchison/Doniphan county to Worth/Harrison county line.

Last but not least, several model iterations are insistent upon
generating a small pocket of strong uvv and H8-H7 frontogenesis
emanating out of SE Kansas in advance of a compact vorticity lobe.
While not in the classic deformation area, this region may be more
tied to a pocket of low static stability coincident with layered
negative EPV/frontogenesis. Regardless, model qpf has been
sporadically robust and impressive, and bears watching. If this
narrow banded feature were to come to fruition as currently
advertised by the 12Z/18Z NAM, intense snow bursts around 2
inches/hour would be expected in a corridor from around Nevada to
Macon. And while not lasting long, this would be quite impactful not
only based on snowfall rates, but amounts could top out above 3
inches necessitating a completely separate winter weather advisory.

21

Medium Range (Wednesday Night through Monday)...

Operational models are in very good agreement at the start of this
period as they all dig shortwave energy southeast through UT which
ejects the upper trough over northern Mexico. As the upper system
moves into the central Rockies pieces of energy will flow northeast
out of the system across the Central Plains and through MO. Latest
GFS/ECMWF both eject a weak 700mb shortwave Thursday which they both
track through KS and MO. GFS progs weak multi-layered frontogenesis
and isentropic ascent will precede this shortwave and be the primary
drivers to the sensible weather. While differences do exit in their
details, such as timing, they are close enough to support each other
and warrant going above current the AllBlend consensus pop output.
With that in mind have raised pops for Thursday night and Friday and
if these models continue to show continuity confidence will improve
to justify further increases to the pops. Inspection of GFS progged
soundings at several critical locations show near saturation at or
above -10C so ice crystals should be present. With surface
temperatures generally below freezing expect precipitation type to
be all snow. Some accumulations are possible but that won't be
resolved until we get into the 24-36 hours prior to the event.

From Saturday on the operational and GFS mean ensemble models depict
a mean trough extending from Hudson Bay through the Southern Plains.
Some weak signals hint at possible light winter precipitation on
Sunday but amount of moisture in question. With a pronounced
northwest flow pattern aloft and cold Canadian high pressure
dominating the central U.S. with periodic reinforcement of cold air
below average temperatures will rule.

MJ

&&

.AVIATION...

Initial wave of precipitation has shifted east of the terminals this
evening. Secondary, more scattered precip now beginning to shift
northward and should affect the terminals over the next several
hours. The anticipated dry slot now moving into southern Kansas and
will continue to progress northward, reaching the taf site during the
overnight hours. Prior to this, periodic rain and drizzle along with
IFR ceilings (perhaps occasionally LIFR within the heavier rain bands)
will overspread the Kansas City terminals. More uncertainty at KSTJ
where the temperature profile is hovering near the freezing mark.
Expect a rain and periodic snow mix within the heavier precipitation
areas to move across the taf site. Aforementioned dry slot should
overspread the terminals by ~09z, depleting any ice crystal growth
from the mid levels of the column. This is expected to result in a
transition to drizzle and freezing drizzle (depending on the surface
temperature at the respective terminals) through the afternoon hours.
There is a chance for a quick burst of light snow by the evening
hours tomorrow along the backside of the upper low. However,
confidence on the location and temperature profile precludes a
mention at this time.

Deroche

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Tuesday FOR MOZ001>005-
     011>014-020>022.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Tuesday FOR KSZ025-102.

&&

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
643 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-201200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
643 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PERSISTENT MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
TONIGHT MAY CAUSE A FEW SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS TO REACH FLOOD STAGE.
ONLY LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH RUNOFF ON AREA
ROADWAYS.

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET LATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST
MISSOURI. SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL INCREASE BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF
TUESDAY...WITH UP TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ROUGHLY ALONG A
LINE FROM TROY KANSAS TO STANBERRY MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A WIDE VARIETY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY
MORNING. MODERATE SNOWFALL WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WITH A MIXTURE OF
RAIN...DRIZZLE...SLEET...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE NORTH SIDE OF
KANSAS CITY TO AROUND KIRKSVILLE. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
ANTICIPATED IN A CORRIDOR GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
ATCHISON KANSAS TO BETHANY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS BEFORE
THE SNOW TAPERS OFF BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

A FINAL QUICK MOVING BAND OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG...A QUICK ACCUMULATION UP TO AN INCH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS IN EASTERN KANSAS...WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL MISSOURI TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WHILE SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...SNOWFALL...SLEET...AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE REPORTS ARE ALWAYS APPRECIATED.

DEROCHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
814 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     SLEET            CAMERON                 39.74N 94.24W
12/19/2011  E0.25 INCH       CLINTON            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SLEETING FOR THE LAST HOUR WITH MULTIPLE CAR SLIDE OFFS
            AND ACCIDENTS ON I35 AND US 36 DUE TO ICY ROADS.

&&

DDEROCHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
826 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     SNOW             LANCASTER               39.57N 95.30W
12/19/2011  E1.0 INCH        ATCHISON           KS   PUBLIC

&&

DDEROCHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
918 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     SNOW             ST. JOSEPH              39.77N 94.85W
12/19/2011  M0.5 INCH        BUCHANAN           MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            1/2INCH OF SNOW AT KQ2

&&

DDEROCHE