Flash Flood Watch 6, NWS Kansas City, MO

Atchison County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Platte County, MO, Ray County, MO, Worth County, MO

100 
WGUS63 KEAX 200824
FFAEAX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
324 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...

MOZ001>005-011>014-200930-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-110820T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-
DAVIESS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TARKIO...ROCKPORT...MARYVILLE...
GRANT CITY...ALBANY...STANBERRY...BETHANY...MOUND CITY...OREGON...
SAVANNAH...CAMERON...GALLATIN...JAMESPORT
324 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

STORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAIN SHIFTED SOUTH THROUGH THE WATCH
AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HAVE NOW LEFT
THIS PORTION OF MISSOURI BEHIND. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

KSZ025-102>105-MOZ020>022-028>030-037-038-201500-
/O.CON.KEAX.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-110820T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-BUCHANAN-
CLINTON-CALDWELL-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATCHISON...TROY...LEAVENWORTH...
KANSAS CITY KS...OVERLAND PARK...OLATHE...ST. JOSEPH...
PLATTSBURG...KINGSTON...HAMILTON...POLO...PARKVILLE...
PLATTE CITY...WESTON...LIBERTY...EXCELSIOR SPRINGS...RICHMOND...
KANSAS CITY...INDEPENDENCE...LEXINGTON...CONCORDIA
324 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS
MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN KANSAS...ATCHISON KS...DONIPHAN...JOHNSON KS... 
  LEAVENWORTH AND WYANDOTTE. IN MISSOURI...BUCHANAN...CALDWELL...
   CLAY...CLINTON...JACKSON...LAFAYETTE...PLATTE AND RAY. 

* UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING

* THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
  THROUGH WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. THIS
  WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. DUE TO THE 1 TO 2
  INCHES OF RAIN WHICH MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
  GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY MORNING WILL
  LIKELY RANGE FORM ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO AN
  3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

$$

CUTTER

957 
WGUS63 KEAX 201144
FFAEAX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
644 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011


KSZ025-102>105-MOZ020>022-028>030-037-038-201245-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-110820T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-BUCHANAN-
CLINTON-CALDWELL-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATCHISON...TROY...LEAVENWORTH...
KANSAS CITY KS...OVERLAND PARK...OLATHE...ST. JOSEPH...
PLATTSBURG...KINGSTON...HAMILTON...POLO...PARKVILLE...
PLATTE CITY...WESTON...LIBERTY...EXCELSIOR SPRINGS...RICHMOND...
KANSAS CITY...INDEPENDENCE...LEXINGTON...CONCORDIA
644 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR WESTERN MISSORUI THIS
MORNING...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND
FAR WESTERN MISSOURI HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

CUTTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
650 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION  DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED CONTINUES TO STREAM FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST
ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...SFC RIDGING
COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE SHORT
LIVED AS ATTENTION TURNS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI WESTWARD
TO EASTERN COLORADO WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS THE NOCTURNAL LLJ STRENGTHENS
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STEERING FLOW AND PROGGED
CORFIDI VECTORS...EXPECT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD
INTO EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT FOR
A STRONG WIND GUST THREAT.

A WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY...SECONDARY VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOULD SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
TAKE PLACE...ADEQUATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR
ORGANIZED STORM MODES AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER THREATS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL EXPERIENCED OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN PW VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

DEROCHE

MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO USHER IN SHORTWAVES EARLY IN THE COMING
WORK WEEK. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND RIDGE OVER
WESTERN US WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAKENING
FLOW ALOFT BY MID TO LATE WEEK WILL LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE
SHORTWAVES RIDE FURTHER NORTH. THE ECMWF POSITIONING OF THE UPPER
RIDGE SEEMS TOO FAR EAST SO BELIEVE THE GFS SOLUTION BY THURSDAY IS
MORE REALISTIC. THIS COULD MEAN TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN BY END OF THE
WEEK BUT A LITTLE EARLY TO TELL IF RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY WEST AS
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS. ADOLPHSON

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE FROM
CENTRAL KS THROUGH CENTRAL MO THROUGH SATURDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING FOR INITIAL WAVE OF  THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THE NEBRASKA CONVECTION WELL WHILE THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF KS APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSING EAST
A TAD FASTER THAN FORECAST. EXPECTATION IS THE KS ACTIVITY WILL
MERGE WITH ANY ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB/NORTHEAST KS LATE THIS
EVENING. MODELS A BIT MORE IN AGREEMENT LATER TONIGHT SO SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS TILL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHEN LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE SATURATED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MVFR CEILINGS. WILL HOLD
ONTO RAIN A BIT LONGER IN THE MORNING. SEE NO CLEAR CUT TIME FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO END SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR REDEVELOPMENT.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
702 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-201130-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
702 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES OUT OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THE STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. AREAS THAT HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO
RECEIVE STORMS ARE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CLINTON TO PRINCETON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO POSSIBLY BECOMING
SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION...MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FROM THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS STORMS.

PERIODS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT. ANY REPORTS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

MJ