Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Kansas City, MO

341 
WGUS73 KEAX 191401
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
901 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

MOC013-037-083-191416-
/O.EXP.KEAX.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-110619T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BATES MO-CASS MO-HENRY MO-
901 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
HENRY...EASTERN CASS AND NORTHEASTERN BATES COUNTIES HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3877 9418 3863 9412 3857 9412 3856 9400
      3843 9394 3844 9439 3875 9447

$$

21

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1240 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

VERY ACTIVE PERIOD CONTINUES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE
ADDITIONAL QLCS EVENTS TO IMPACT THE CWA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR TONIGHT...A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE IS WELL EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS POISED TO PUSH INTO AN
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI...WHERE
MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES EXIST IN WAKE OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS WAVE THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE AND LOCATION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE OZARKS LATER TONIGHT. LEADING EDGE OF THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO NUDGE INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATER THIS
EVENING...AND CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND SPREAD INTO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD KEEP THE HIGHEST SEVERE
THREAT FOCUSED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ALSO EXISTS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI WHERE SEVERAL LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES EXISTS...MOST NOTABLY A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR CHANUTE INTO THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS
REGION. COULD SEE CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES
AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING...THOUGH DEEP SHEAR WILL
NOT BE AS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED OR LONG-LIVED UPDRAFTS...AND SHORT
TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOMEWHAT OF A CAP IN PLACE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS BEING ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT WITH MOST OF
THE CWA BECOMING WARM SECTORED BY EARLY SUNDAY. A WELL-CAPPED AIRMASS
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH EVENING...WHILE MIXING TO JUST SHY OF
850 HPA WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
MIDLEVEL IMPULSE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WESTERN TROUGH WILL LIKELY KICK
OFF YET ANOTHER SEVERE MCS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE AIRMASS OVER KS AND MO WILL REMAIN VERY
UNSTABLE...STRONG EML WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CAP EXPECTED FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE HIGHWAY 36
CORRIDOR BY SUNDAY EVENING. THUS...MCS OVER NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO
STAY NORTH OF THIS CORRIDOR WHICH COULD BRING IT INTO FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH BETTER UPPER
DYNAMICS SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...THE BETTER SEVERE THREAT
MAY REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. REGARDLESS...ANY MCS TRACKING
ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY WILL SPELL TROUBLE FOR DOWNSTREAM
LOCATIONS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...ESPECIALLY WITH GAGES IN FAR
NORTHWEST MISSOURI FLIRTING WITH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE.

AFTER ANOTHER WARM AND CAPPED DAY ON MONDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE NIGHT
MAY BE IN STORE AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT OUT INTO THE
PLAINS...SENDING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN MISSOURI MONDAY NIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHILE
INCREASING MIDLEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO IMPRESSIVE
EARLY SUMMER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IF EML IS ABLE TO BE ERODED...THIS
COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A SEVERE PRE-FRONTAL QLCS WHICH COULD TRACK
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA MONDAY NIGHT.

HAWBLITZEL

MEDIUM RANGE (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
STRENGTH OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY THAT MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS.  THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BOOKEND THE FIRST AND LAST DAY
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR ON
TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL COOL DAYS MIDWEEK AS H5 HEIGHTS CRASH...AND
ENSEMBLES DEPICT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TEENS OR 1-2C STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL. GENERALLY ACCEPTED CONSENSUS...THOUGH
TWEAKED DOWNWARD A TAD. H5 HEIGHTS RISE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...AND H8 TEMPS RISE BACK INTO
MID-TEENS.  MAY NOT FEEL AFFECTS OF WARM ADVECTION UNTIL LAST DAY OF
FORECAST PERIOD GIVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINING
EAST-SOUTHEAST.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE ON
A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE CWA LATE TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  BETTER FOCUS WILL BE
ACROSS EASTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE BEST PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...THUS INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THIS
REGION.  UPPER LOW SLOW TO PROGRESS...WITH EASTERN CWA REMAINING
UNDER INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE...THUS LEFT LINGERING CHANCE
OF POPS ACROSS EAST/NORTHEAST. BREAK IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS. MODELS HINT AT WARM ADVECTION
CONVECTION BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THUS COULD NOT ARGUE WITH
HEAVILY CLIMATOLOGY WEIGHTED SLIGHT CHANGE POPS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

SF

&&

.AVIATION...

BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ATOP SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL ACT UPON
A LARGE RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS...EXPECT A CONTINUED RAPID INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH
THE KANSAS CITY TERMINALS SEEING THE MOST FREQUENT ACTIVITY.

GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS /MAINLY VISIBILITY/ IN STRONGER PRECIPITATION...ALONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME SMALL HAIL.

UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT THIS ACTIVITY CLEARS THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING...STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MIX NORTHWARD UNDER STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME STEADY AND INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST WITH OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME INCREASED
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
INITIAL FOCUS MAY ULTIMATELY BE ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS
OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

BOOKBINDER

BOOKBINDER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
629 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-191145-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
629 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN AN EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH THIS
REGION. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL INITIALLY BE LARGE
HAIL AS THE THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND WILL EVENTUALLY
TRANSITION INTO A DAMAGING WIND EVENT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING...IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS MAY BUILD INTO
THE REGION VERY LATE TONIGHT. SHOULD THESE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER
ACROSS KANSAS...DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ON SUNDAY...AND MAY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN
MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OF SMALLER STREAMS AND
RIVERS AND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL RISES TO THE MISSOURI RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT.

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
202 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     HAIL             1 SSE PLATTE CITY       39.35N 94.77W
06/19/2011  M3.00 INCH       PLATTE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALL EXPOSED CAR WINDSHIELDS CRACKED AND/OR BROKEN.
            NUMEROUS DINGS ON VEHICLES FROM THE HAIL.

&&

DDEROCHE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
215 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

MOZ033-190730-
RANDOLPH MO-
215 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY
UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

AT 213 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOBERLY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3944 9230 3940 9238 3946 9244 3960 9230
      3960 9229 3954 9230
TIME...MOT...LOC 0715Z 229DEG 21KT 3947 9235

DEROCHE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
219 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

MOZ024-025-190730-
LINN MO-MACON MO-
219 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MACON AND SOUTHEASTERN
LINN COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

AT 218 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BROOKFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BUCKLIN AND NEW BOSTON.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3970 9300 3970 9302 3980 9312 4001 9289
      3986 9271
TIME...MOT...LOC 0720Z 227DEG 21KT 3981 9298

DEROCHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
253 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S GUNN CITY           38.62N 94.16W
06/19/2011                   CASS               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 HWY AT LITTLE RD IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

AJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
256 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S PLEASANT HILL       38.75N 94.27W
06/19/2011                   CASS               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HWY 7 CLOSED AT STATE ROUTE P DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

AJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
257 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S EAST LYNNE          38.65N 94.23W
06/19/2011                   CASS               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HWY 2 CLOSED AT STATE HWY K DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

AJ