Excessive Heat Warning 2, NWS Kansas City, MO

108 
WWUS73 KEAX 020848
NPWEAX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
348 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

KSZ057-060-MOZ033-038>040-043>046-053-054-021800-
/O.CON.KEAX.EH.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110703T0000Z/
MIAMI-LINN KS-RANDOLPH-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-
PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLA...MOUND CITY...MOBERLY...
LEXINGTON...CONCORDIA...MARSHALL...FAYETTE...NEW FRANKLIN...
RAYMORE...HARRISONVILLE...PLEASANT HILL...WARRENSBURG...SEDALIA...
BOONVILLE...BUTLER...RICH HILL...CLINTON
348 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING. 

* TEMPERATURE: TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 
  MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 105. 

* IMPACTS: HEAT INDICES WILL RISE TO POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS LEVELS FOR
  THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW. PROLONGED EXTREME HEAT CONDITIONS WILL
  LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAT RELATED STRESS AND ILLNESSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION
IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF NON-ALCOHOLIC
BEVERAGES...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE
SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES...THE ELDERLY...AND PETS.

&&

$$

HAWBLITZEL

382 
WWUS73 KEAX 021758
NPWEAX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1258 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

KSZ057-060-MOZ033-038>040-043>046-053-054-030000-
/O.CON.KEAX.EH.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110703T0000Z/
MIAMI-LINN KS-RANDOLPH-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-
PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLA...MOUND CITY...MOBERLY...
LEXINGTON...CONCORDIA...MARSHALL...FAYETTE...NEW FRANKLIN...
RAYMORE...HARRISONVILLE...PLEASANT HILL...WARRENSBURG...SEDALIA...
BOONVILLE...BUTLER...RICH HILL...CLINTON
1258 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING. 

* TEMPERATURE: TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 
  MIDDLE 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 105. 

* IMPACTS: HEAT INDICES WILL RISE TO POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS 
  LEVELS FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW. PROLONGED EXTREME HEAT 
  CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAT RELATED 
  STRESS AND ILLNESSES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION
IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF NON-ALCOHOLIC
BEVERAGES...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE
SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES...THE ELDERLY...AND PETS.

&&

$$

CDB

931 
WWUS73 KEAX 030020
NPWEAX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
720 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011


KSZ057-060-MOZ033-038>040-043>046-053-054-030130-
/O.EXP.KEAX.EH.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110703T0000Z/
MIAMI-LINN KS-RANDOLPH-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-
PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLA...MOUND CITY...MOBERLY...
LEXINGTON...CONCORDIA...MARSHALL...FAYETTE...NEW FRANKLIN...
RAYMORE...HARRISONVILLE...PLEASANT HILL...WARRENSBURG...SEDALIA...
BOONVILLE...BUTLER...RICH HILL...CLINTON
720 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* HEAT INDICES THIS EVENING WERE GENERALLY BELOW 100. A COLD FRONT
  WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

$$

DB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
335 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DEALS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL STALL/DIE OUT OVER THE REGION...WHETHER THAT FRONT CAN HELP
TRIGGER ANY STORMS AND IT AFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

TONIGHT:

A COLD FRONT...EVIDENT ON REGIONAL REFLECTIVITY IMAGES AND IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...WAS PUSHING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT HAS BEEN TIED TO THE COMPACT BUT FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT BUT WILL HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG AND WITH THE
UPPER WAVE ALREADY EXITING THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION LOOK FAIRLY LOW.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN BRING THIS AREA SOUTHWARD WITH TIME AS
THE FRONT DRAGS SOUTHWARDAS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
FO STORMS WOKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LIMITED SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY STORM BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD WITH LOW TO MID 70S FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF TO TWO- THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AS AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT MIXED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY:

THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE PUSHED TO ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND DEPENDING ON ITS PLACEMENT FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY STILL SEE EXCESSIVE HEAT. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE CURRENT HEAT WARNING TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE. CURRENT
HEAT WARNING LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE NO PLANS TO ADJUST
ITS ALIGNMENT AS AREAS NORTH OF IT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER WITH HEAT INDICES 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AGAIN LOOK SMALL DUE IN PART TO THE DECAYING NATURE OF THE
FRONT AND THE WEAK CONVERGENCE. DESPITE FLOW BECOMING A BIT MORE
ZONAL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW 20%.

SUNDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT:

THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD AGAIN BY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
ROCKIES WHICH WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR LATTER HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT IS LIKELY THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL FORM
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEBRASKA AND TRACK TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST.
TIMING OF THIS REMAINS QUITE A CHALLENGE BUT THE NAM AND THE GFS AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF AND GEM MOVE A WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SO HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
TO PERHAPS THE LOW 90S.

CDB

MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH
TUESDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7. REMAINING
DAYS LOOK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AS IS TYPICAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IS CERTAINLY NON-ZERO
AND WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE NE MO COUNTIES...BUT THERE ARE NO
DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF INTEREST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME OVERALL FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO
REPEATED ENERGY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...COULD YIELD A
SLIGHTLY INCREASED THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WITH A WASHED OUT
TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AND THEN VEER
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND
THROUGH THE TERMINALS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY FRONT WITH ONLY
SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

NOTE: AT THE DIRECTION OF THE FAA...EQUIPMENT FOR THE AUTOMATED
SURFACE OBSERVATION SYSTEM -ASOS- AT STJ WAS REMOVED ON JUNE
29...RENDERING THE SITE OUT OF COMMISSION UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO
FLOODING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. ONLY OCCASIONAL AUGMENTED
OBSERVATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WHILE TAF SERVICE FOR STJ WILL
CONTINUE...AMENDMENTS MAY NOT OCCUR REGULARLY.

CDB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ033-
     038>040-043>046-053-054.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>032-037.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ057-060.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ025-
     102>105.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-021145-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
627 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM THIS
EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM PAOLA TO MOBERLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH AND INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...HEAT INDICES WILL STILL RANGE TO NEAR 105 ON
SATURDAY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PAOLA KANSAS TO MOBERLY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DB