Special Weather Statement, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
607 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011

.UPDATE...
22Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A MESO LOW BETWEEN KCID AND KIOW WITH ANOTHER
IN THE KMIW/KGGI/KTNU TRIANGLE. SFC OBS HAVE THE WARM FRONT
RUNNING EAST ACROSS CEDAR AND NORTHERN SCOTT COUNTIES AND THEN
INTO WHITESIDE COUNTY. THE COLD FRONT RAN FROM NEAR KTNU TO NEAR
KCSQ WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROF RUNNING FROM NEAR KTNU BACK TOWARD KMCW.

RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW DZ WITH SOME SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED WITH
THE KCID/KIOW MESO LOW WHILE TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED WITH A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER VORT MAX ACROSS WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

RUC TRENDS TAKE THE LEAD MESO LOW ACROSS NORTHERN SCOTT COUNTY AND
INTO WHITESIDE COUNTY OVER THE NEXT 3 HRS. THERE IS STRONG LIFT ON
THE 300K THETA SFC WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SHRA TO CONTINUE WITH
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. ELSEWHERE...THE COLD FRONT/INVERTED TROF
CONTINUE EASTWARD AND WITH THE SETTING SUN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS
DIMINISHING. THUS WILL GO WITH ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING. IF THE RUC IS CORRECT...MOST
OF THE PRECIP THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY 03Z AS CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 300K THETA SFC BEGIN TO RISE RAPIDLY.
..08..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
715 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-220015-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
715 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF DIMES.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...INCREASING CLOUDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES HAVE REDUCED
THE THREAT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL UP TO ONE INCH ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS THREAT IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THE MAIN THREAT
AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL AROUND THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE...
WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
622 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ESE ELIZABETH           42.31N 90.22W
03/20/2011  M1.68 INCH       JO DAVIESS         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL...DELAYED REPORT.

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
927 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     HAIL             1 NNW MOUNT PLEASANT    40.97N 91.56W
03/20/2011  E0.25 INCH       HENRY              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GROSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
931 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011

IAZ088-089-098-099-ILZ024>026-210315-
DES MOINES-HENDERSON-HENRY-LEE-MERCER-VAN BUREN-WARREN-
931 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AFFECTING THE AREA...

AT 926 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
NEW LONDON TO NEW LONDON TO HILLSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MEDIAPOLIS AROUND 940 PM CDT...
  DENMARK AND LOWELL AROUND 945 PM CDT...
  DANVILLE AROUND 950 PM CDT...
  MIDDLETOWN AROUND 955 PM CDT...
  WEST BURLINGTON AROUND 1000 PM CDT...
  CARMAN...OQUAWKA AND BURLINGTON AROUND 1005 PM CDT...

THE STORMS PRODUCED PEA SIZED HAIL AS THEY MOVED ACROSS MOUNT
PLEASANT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER AND A BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 4106 9131 4107 9044 4103 9044 4068 9085
      4079 9185
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 267DEG 38KT 4102 9127 4094 9140
          4085 9162

LE