Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Quad Cities, IA

426 
WWUS53 KDVN 090022
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
722 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

IAC011-090045-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-110609T0045Z/
BENTON IA-
722 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN BENTON COUNTY...

AT 718 PM CDT...TRAINED SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH...AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTH OF SPENCERS
GROVE TO URBANA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM INDEPENDENCE TO 7
MILES EAST OF VINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

BENTON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH HAIL 
NORTH OF VINTON FROM 715 PM TO 717 PM.

THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY
RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 380 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 40 AND 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE IMMEDIATELY INDOORS AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4230 9229 4230 9183 4216 9183 4214 9184
      4205 9230
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 243DEG 26KT 4245 9188 4220 9188
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN

$$

08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
315 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
REGION WAS UNDER BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY 500MB FLOW BETWEEN A
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROF. AT
THE SURFACE AT 17Z  A COLD FRONT BISECTED IA FROM NE TO SW AND WAS
MARKED BY THE BACK EDGE OF A DEVELOPING CU FIELD ON THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  A MID LEVEL S/W CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WAS PROVIDING SOME PUSH FOR THE FRONT.  THE
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WAS DRY AND COOL WITH NOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S AND LOW TO MID 50 DEWPOINTS OVER NW IA. A WARM/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WAS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.  AS
OF LATE THIS MORNING THE CWFA WAS RAIN FREE WITH THE EARLY MORNING
TSRA HAVING DISSIPATED OR MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE
CWFA.  THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWFA BY LATE TONIGHT AND STALL OVER NORTHERN MO THURSDAY.  THE FRONT
WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA DURING PRIME
HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST POPS
TONIGHT WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWFA WITH POPS TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH INTO THE DRIER MORE
STABLE AIRMASS.  A SUBSTANTIAL CAP EXISTS OVER THE SOUTH PER 12Z UA
DATA SHOWING H7 TEMPS IN THE 10 TO 13C RANGE OVER SOUTHERN IA AND
NRN MO.  MODEL PROGS SUGGEST CAP WILL WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON SO
ANTICIPATE TSRA FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.  BY
21Z RUC SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE AT OR ABOVE 4000 J/KG.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER THE AREA WILL BE MARGINAL BUT WITH THE HIGH CAPE SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT LARGE HAIL...UNLESS UPDRAFTS START
TO ROTATE.  DEEP LAYER HELICITIES AROUND 150 NEAR THE BOUNDARY
SUPPORT SOME ROTATION WHICH COULD SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT HAIL
ESPECIALLY WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT.  FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO
BE A CONCERN WITH PW/S IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWFA.  THE QUESTION IS IF ANY BACKBUILDING/REPEAT
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR.  THE 12Z MODEL DATA SUPPORTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO FOR ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.  A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR BACK BUILDING EXISTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THIS AREA WILL STILL BE CAPPED. HAVE
MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A
WATCH FOR NOW WITH THE QPF AXIS EXEPCTED TO BE BETWEEN I80 AND
HIGHWAY 34 BETWEEN OTM AND MQB.  IF THE HEAVY RAINS SET UP A LITTLE
MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SINCE THIS AREA
EXPERIENCED HEAVYR RAINS LATE LAST WEEK AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
LOWER. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE NORTHWEST WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES
WITH OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA SUPPORTING A GOOD PUSH BEHIND THE
FRONT.

FOR THURSDAY WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS...IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY...OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWFA...JUST NORTH OF THE
STALLED NORTHERN MO FRONT THEN TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
FAR NORTH.  HIGHS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN TODAYS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S NORTH TO LOW TO MID 80S IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE STALLED OVER OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY
NIGHT CONTINUING THE THUNDERTORM THREAT ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.  MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY.  THE TROF WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWFA
FRIDAY.  THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE MOVING
THROUGH BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE EITHER LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON.  THE AFTERNOON TIMING WOULD ENHANCE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...ESPECIALLY THE CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS AND THE TORNADO RISK.
THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MOIST SO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL
EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN CWFA THURDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

AFTER THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN THE WEATHER
SHOULD QUITE DOWN AS SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGING WILL
ALSO BRING MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AGAIN
OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER RIDGING
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH A MORE ZONE FLOW SETTING UP
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODEL PROGS SHOW AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
SIGINIFCANT PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE ZONAL FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID JUNE.  ..DLF..
&&

.AVIATION...
CU DEVLPG ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN TSRA INITIATION
20Z-22Z. RUC TRENDS SUGGEST RAPID TSRA DEVLPMT WITH A LINE DVLPG BY
00Z/09. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL PRECIP
LOADING IN DOWNDRAFTS COULD RESULT IN SVR TSRA AT KCID/KDBQ.
HOWEVER...18Z TAFS FOR ALL SITES HAVE G45KT AND 3KFT CIGS WITH 1SM
BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOWER VSBYS/CIGS. ONCE INITIAL LINE PASSES
VSBYS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN 3-5SM WITH VCTS AND CIGS NEAR 3KFT.
..08..

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

DLF/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
120 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-090930-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
120 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA. HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL RANGE FROM 98 TO 104 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY
UNSTABLE...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPLODE OVER EASTERN
IOWA...BEFORE SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE REST OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND BY THE EVENING...AS STORMS FORM INTO A
LINE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL HAVE A LARGE
POOL OF MOISTURE ALOFT TO SUPPLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. IN
ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREAS SEVERAL TIMES...AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST
IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
TOWARDS IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL PUSH TO EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. AS STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT ARRIVE AND BACKING WINDS OCCUR NEAR THE WARM FRONT OVER
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SUPERCELLS PRODUCING A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A
SLIGHT RISK ROUGHLY SOUTH AND EAST OF AN OTTUMWA TO DUBUQUE LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ERVIN/HAASE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
455 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

IAZ040>042-051>053-063-082300-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-DELAWARE IA-DUBUQUE IA-IOWA IA-JONES IA-
LINN IA-
455 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

...RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP THROUGH 6 PM WEST OF
A DUBUQUE TO MARENGO LINE. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND HAIL.

INDIVIDUALS OUTSIDE SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER AS STORMS
APPROACH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
558 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     HAIL             JESUP                   42.48N 92.07W
06/08/2011  M1.00 INCH       BUCHANAN           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
602 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     HAIL             JESUP                   42.48N 92.07W
06/08/2011  M1.25 INCH       BUCHANAN           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN ALSO OCCURRING. ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IN A
            HALF HOUR. SOME STREET FLOODING IS OCCURRING.

&&

DLF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
606 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

IAZ040-090000-
BUCHANAN IA-
606 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

...HEAVY RAIN TO CAUSE PONDING OF WATER...

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS BUCHANAN COUNTY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR.

PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. MOTORISTS THAT ENCOUNTER A
ROAD WITH WATER ACROSS IT SHOULD TURN AROUND AND FIND ANOTHER ROUTE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
642 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     HAIL             INDEPENDENCE            42.45N 91.95W
06/08/2011  E0.25 INCH       BUCHANAN           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL STARTING TO COVER THE GROUND.

0630 PM     HAIL             BRANDON                 42.31N 92.00W
06/08/2011  E1.00 INCH       BUCHANAN           IA   PUBLIC

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
645 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     HAIL             ROWLEY                  42.37N 91.84W
06/08/2011  E0.88 INCH       BUCHANAN           IA   PUBLIC

&&

DC