Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
320 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AMPLE CAPE...AND TYPICALLY WEAK FORCING IS FOUND OVER THE MIDWEST
EARLY TODAY. TWO LARGE MCS HAVE MOVE TO OUR NORTH AND THROUGH THE
WEST SO FAR...AND HAVE BECOME MATURED TO DISSIPATED. AS THE POINT
WHERE OUTFLOWS FROM THESE TWO HAVE COLLIDED...OVER NORTHERN/NORTHWEST
IOWA THROUGH WESTERN IOWA...NEW INTENSE STORMS HAVE FORMED. THIS WILL
BECOME THE MAIN MCS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD
AFFECT OUR CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE MCS...POSSIBLY WITH SEVERE WINDS...SHOULD MOVE EAST OVER IOWA
INTO OUR CWA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FORWARD PROPAGATING
CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW STORMS MOVEMENT EAST AROUND 35 KTS THROUGH MID
MORNING...WITH SOME INCREASE TOWARD 45 KTS TOWARD 18Z. MU CAPE IS
AROUND 5000 J/KG. THERE IS PLENTY OF ENERGY FOR STORMS...BUT AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...THE FORCING IS BASICALLY ONLY ON THE MESOSCALE
LEVEL. THUS...THE CONVERGENCE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE AIMED AT OUR
NORTH 1/2 AT THIS TIME...AND WILL FOCUS THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THERE AFTER 12Z...WITH LOWER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. CAPPING WILL ALSO
BE OCCURRING TODAY...SETTING UP A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH VERY HIGH CAPE
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS. ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...BUT FORCING IS WEAK OR NON EXISTENT. THUS POPS WILL BE LOW
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SLIGHT TONIGHT.

HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL BE LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...AND AN
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAT INDEXES LIKE
YESTERDAY...WILL EXCEED 100 TO 105. FARTHER NORTH...CONVECTION AND
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO KEEP HEAT INDEXES A BIT COOLER...AND TODAY WILL
JUST BE A VERY WARM AND STICKY DAY. DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AGAIN.    ..ERVIN..

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LATEST SUITE OF 00Z RUN MODELS STILL
GENERALLY SUGGEST SEASONABLY STRONG SFC HIGH TO BUILD OUT OF CANADA
AN ACRS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY AND EFFECTIVELY
SHUNT THE MAIN SFC-LLVL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS PERIOD...
WITH IT LIKELY LAYING OUT FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACRS NORTHERN KS INTO
CENTRAL MO AND SOUTH CENTRAL IA BY LATE TUE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH BUT WILL HAVE TO GO WITH LOW TO MODERATE POPS ON TUE FOR
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS...BUT NO REAL
ORGANIZED FORCING EVIDENT AT THIS TIME. POST-FRONTAL FETCH AND SOME
CLOUD DEBRIS WILL MAKE FOR A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID DAY ACRS
MOST OF THE LOCAL CWA...EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA MAY STILL BE
IMPACTED BY HIGH SFC DPT POOL. THUS DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE
APPROACHED OR EXCEEDED AGAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF
COUNTIES TUE AFTERNOON. ENOUGH OF A LLJ AND ELEVATED THTA-E FEED
SIGNAL UNDER PERIPHERY OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF PASSING GRT LKS
UPPER JET STREAK...TO SUPPORT AND ELEVATED TYPE OF MCS TUE NIGHT AT
LEAST ACRS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA...OR MAYBE UP TO I80.
SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE INITIATING THEIR MAIN
PRECIP REGIONS TOO FAR NORTH TUE NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL OR EVEN
NORTHERN CWA...AND WILL ADJUST SOUTHWARD BOTH HIGHER POPS AND QPF
AMOUNTS. FORCING AND THERMODYNAMICS AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE
NOTHING SPECTACULAR TO SUPPORT MUCH OF A SVR RISK TUE NIGHT
ESPECIALLY TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE ELEVATED NATURE OF ANY CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM THAT MAY BE ABLE TO INITIATE AND MAKE IT ACRS THE LOCAL
FCST AREA.  BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACRS THE UPPER MS
RVR VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS MAY MAKE FOR A MAINLY DRY WED
AND WED NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST FOR
LINGERING OVERRUNNING PRECIP WED MORNING. MUCH COOLER HIGHS LOOK TO
BE IN STORE FOR WED WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S...
WITH AN EVEN BIGGER COMFORT LEVEL IMPACT OF NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER FETCH DOWN-DRYING THE SFC DPTS. SOME AREAS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA MAY COOL WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S BY EARLY THU
MORNING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LATEST ENSEMBLES AND LOOKING AT 00Z RUN GFS
AND ECMWF GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THE THERMAL RIDGE TO TRY AND
REESTABLISH ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN FCST AREA THIS PERIOD. THUS
THERMALLY MODERATING TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN STORE ESPECIALLY BY
FRIDAY. IT ALSO LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT THE RISK OF RIDGE-RIDING MCS/S
IN A REINVIGORATED RING OF FIRE PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
THE NORTHWEST GRT LKS TOO CLOSE FRO COMFORT TO GO TOTALLY DRY
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE
NORTH FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH MCS TRACK DEPICTED BY THE LATEST
RUNS ACRS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...TO MICHIGAN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LATEST LONG RANGE SIGNALS SUGGEST OPPRESSIVE
HEAT DOME COULD REALLY ESTABLISH ACRS MUCH OF THE MID AND UPPER MS
RVR VALLEY OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SFC DPTS RISING TO LEVELS
SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY/MID AND UPPER 70S/ COMBINED
WITH AMBIENT HIGHS IN THE 90S SUGGEST HEAT ADVISORY TO WARNINGS
POSSIBLE BOTH SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. RING OF FIRE LOOKS TO
BE SHUNTED EVEN FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR A DRY FCST.   ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR VISIBILITY WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND A
VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN IN PLACE. SOME OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z TODAY. THE BROAD RANGE WILL BE 2 TO 5 MILES
THROUGH 13Z...THEN 4 TO 6 MILES THROUGH TODAY IN HAZE. A LARGE AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT ALL SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z TODAY...
WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF STORMS. CIGS WILL BE
VARIABLE FROM 3500 FT...TO 10000 FT TODAY...WITH ANY LOWER CIG
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING STORMS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WINDS TO GUST
OVER 30 KTS WITH EARLY MORNING STORMS PRIOR TO 13Z TODAY...BUT THIS
THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.    ..ERVIN..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DES MOINES-HENRY
     IA-JEFFERSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-WARREN.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

ERVIN/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
402 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-120915-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
402 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING...AS A
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVE EAST QUICKLY MOVES FROM
CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WINDS OF 50 TO 70 MPH
APPEAR LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
FOR A SHORT PERIOD. AFTER THESE STORMS PASS...THERE IS A LOW
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS
A FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE REGION.

DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WHILE CLOUDS AND RAIN MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR...LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S...WITH HEAT INDEXES FROM 100 TO 105...AND LOCALLY OVER 105
POSSIBLE. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...THROUGH MID
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 100 DEGREES MAY OCCUR AGAIN
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS
SUGGESTING AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MORE FAVORABLE
TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY. THE STORM PREDICTION HAS PLACE AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...MORE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT MAY AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BUT IS MUCH LESS LIKELY.

ERVIN/12

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
603 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 AM     TSTM WND GST     PALO                    42.06N 91.80W
07/11/2011  E70.00 MPH       LINN               IA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR...RELAYED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER.

&&

GROSS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
610 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW DUBUQUE           42.52N 90.76W
07/11/2011                   DUBUQUE            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN ON PROPERTY ON TOP OF AN
            OUTBUILDING.

&&

GROSS