Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Quad Cities, IA

798 
WGUS73 KDVN 181659
FFSDVN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1159 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

MOC045-199-181700-
/O.CAN.KDVN.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-110618T2045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CLARK MO-SCOTLAND MO-
1159 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SCOTLAND AND CLARK
COUNTIES...

THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING HAVE DISSIPATED.  THERE WERE NO FURTHER REPORTS OF FLOODING 
FROM THE HEAVY RAINS THAT FELL EARLIER THIS MORNING.

LAT...LON 4059 9234 4061 9173 4058 9168 4055 9168
      4054 9162 4051 9162 4047 9158 4045 9152
      4041 9152 4040 9149 4038 9148 4038 9142
      4034 9146 4024 9151 4025 9195 4030 9196
      4030 9233

$$

DLF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
800 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.UPDATE...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THE PAST HOUR...THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
MCS MOVING INTO ILLINOIS SHOULD MOVE EAST PER FORWARD PROPAGATING
CORFIDI VECTORS. THE FCST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS
INCREASED PRECIP ACTIVITY THROUGH 15Z.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE MCS THAT HAS CROSSED THE MISSOURI RIVER
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THERE IS A VERY RESPECTABLE MCV ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AND PER THE RUC TRENDS WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SFC OBS SHOW THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THE MO/IL MCS RUNS JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 FROM
NEAR KLWD TO NEAR KFSW. THE QUESTION IS WILL THE WESTERN IA MCV BE
ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY
THE BOUNDARY AND INITIATE CONVECTION. THE MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MO/IL MCS WILL CUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA MID TO LATE MORNING
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT.

THE 12Z UA SOUNDING HAS A VERY PRONOUNCED INVERSION WITH A
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 73. THE TRENDS FROM THE RUC SHOW PWATS
WITH SPORADIC PEAK VALUES SHOWING UP AROUND MID DAY WHICH SUGGESTS
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LIFT TOOL SHOWS
CONVERGENCE INCREASING BY MID DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WITH IT
GENERALLY HOLDING ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE CWFA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

THE CURRENT SCHC POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY
BE A BIT UNDERDONE. INCOMING SHIFT WILL NEED TO DO A CAREFUL MET
WATCH AND OBSERVE TRENDS REGARDING SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
..08..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
415 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-190900-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-CLINTON
IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-HENDERSON IL-HENRY
IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-
JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-
MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-
STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
415 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER CHANCE
TONIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SOME AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST SOME
STORMS MAY APPROACH OR BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST RISK TUESDAY AS A COOL FRONT PASSES.
THE GREATEST RISK MAY BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. WET SOIL
CONDITIONS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...COULD RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

08/NICHOLS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
529 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

IAZ051>053-063>068-076>078-ILZ015-024-181300-
BENTON-LINN-JONES-IOWA-JOHNSON-CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-
KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-ROCK ISLAND-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...
MARENGO...IOWA CITY...TIPTON...CLINTON...MUSCATINE...BETTENDORF...
DAVENPORT...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...MOLINE...
ROCK ISLAND...ALEDO
529 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA...

LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
HAS ALLOWED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES
IN THE FOG WERE NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND ALSO CHANGE SUDDENLY OVER
VERY SHORT DISTANCES.

THE RISING SUN SHOULD RESULT IN THE FOG BURNING OFF BY 8 AM. UNTIL
THEN MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
557 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

ILZ034-MOZ009-010-181215-
HANCOCK IL-CLARK MO-SCOTLAND MO-
557 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...

AT 550 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR HAD A LINE OF
STRONG STORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR POLLOCK MISSOURI TO HANNIBAL
MISSOURI...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 136
THROUGH 7 AM. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS...AND RISES
IN AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS.

&&

LAT...LON 4019 9127 4021 9151 4024 9151 4025 9195
      4029 9196 4030 9196 4030 9235 4042 9235
      4035 9092 4019 9091

08