Areal Flood Warning 8, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
343 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...
BRIEF DISCUSSION THIS MORNING DUE TO ON-GOING HIGH END OVERNIGHT FLASH
FLOODING EVENT ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR DUE TO A NEARLY
STATIONARY...BACK BUILDING MCS. OF NOTE...THE NOW WELL OVER 9 INCH
RAINFALL IN DBQ...HAS WELL EXCEEDED DAILY RECORDS AND RESULTED IN
A NEW ALL TIME WETTEST JULY RECORD AT THE SITE.

AXIS OF 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE OF AN AIRMASS WITH PW
VALUES WELL OVER 2 INCHES HAS REMAINED FOCUSED ON AN EAST CENTRAL-
NE IA INTO NW IL AXIS OVER THE PAST 6-8 HOURS. RECENT TRENDS HAS
SHOWN THIS SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. UPSTREAM...THERE WERE
ADDITIONAL MCS/S UPSTREAM IN THE PLAINS...WITH THE LARGEST AND
MOST SIGNIFICANT OVER S CENTRAL NEB. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DRIVING THIS COMPLEX...ALONG WITH WEAKER IMPULSES FURTHER
NORTH...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND POSSIBLY
PRODUCE MORE MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND PRIMARY FRONT BISECTING IA FROM SW
TO NE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL TAKE VERY LITTLE TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND WILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE...AND EXTEND THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WHEN THE FRONT AND CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
OVER AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN AS MUCH RECENT RAINFALL.

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY AGAIN RISE ABOVE 100...INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING
WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW CLOUD COVER AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
TEMPERATURES AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

FRIDAY ONWARD...THE COOL FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES SLIGHTLY NW. WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE SOUTH
FOR FRIDAY...THEN ESSENTIALLY DRY...BUT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL...FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
..SHEETS..

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.  CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS WITH VISBYS REDUCED TO
1-3 MILES AND CLOUD BASES 500-3000K AGL.  BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
AFTER 21Z TODAY...OTHERWISE...MOSTLY FAIR WITH VISBYS AOA 6 MILES
AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.   ..NICHOLS..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-LINN.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

SHEETS/NICHOLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
353 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-281000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
353 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 3 PM
NORTHWEST OF A FREEPORT ILLINOIS TO IOWA CITY IOWA LINE AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. HIGH INSTABILITY
SUPPORTS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH THE MAIN RISK WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AS A SECONDARY RISK.
LOCAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR MORE MAY CREATE MINOR WATER ISSUES.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...
MAINLY IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH STRONG WINDS OVER 60 MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINTON IOWA TO STERLING ILLINOIS LINE.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEAT WARNING AND
ADVISORY STATEMENTS FOR MORE COMPLETE INFORMATION.

THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND WILL BE GREATEST THURSDAY
AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING. THIS RISK WILL INITIALLY BE GREATEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80.

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH OVER 100 DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

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