Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
340 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACRS THE AREA BEING MORE
INFLUENCED BY IT/S DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND PROGRESSING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD. HIGHER THTA-E AIRMASS IN-FEED ON LLJ AND INSTABILITY
AXIS DRIVING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOW ON IT/S EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN FLANKS. THIS ENHANCED CONVECTION IS THUS CURRENTLY EXITING
THE CWA. OTHER CONVECTIVE FINGERS FEEDING ON LIFT AND THTA-E
DEVELOPING ACRS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF MO ATTM SHOULD
PROPAGATE MAINLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DVN CWA THIS MORNING.
THUS WILL WALK OUT HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN TO EAST HALF OF
THE DVN CWA JUST AFTER 12-14Z FOR LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER. WILL LET ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH RIDE OUT
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. AS UPPER WAVE SHEARS OUT AND CUTS-OFF
OVER MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOME CHANCE OF RENEWED
SCTRD SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTH HALF OF THE DVN CWA...BUT OF HARDLY ANY
SIGNIFICANCE AS COMPARED TO THE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OF THE PAST
FEW DAYS. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND DIURNAL HEATING...
WILL GO WITH LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. A FEW
AREAS IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST MAY STILL BE HELD DOWN IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. CLEARING WITH PASSING SFC RIDGE AXIS
TONIGHT MAY FOSTER SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE RECENT
HARD HIT HEAVY RAIN AREAS...IF WESTERLY SFC WINDS CAN DECOUPLE
ENOUGH.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BOUT OF BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING SHOULD
MAKE FOR A DRY THURSDAY WITH THERMAL MODIFICATION ENOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO GET BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL. WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS HOWEVER FOR LATER THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHWESTERLIES RE-LOAD ACRS THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLY SET THE STAGE
FOR MORE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF RIDGE-RIDING STORM COMPLEXES THOUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS FRI PROBLEMATIC AND DEPENDENT ON POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT OR FRIDAY CONVECTION. WILL GO WITH LOW 80S FOR NOW.

IN THE EXTENDED/SAT-TUE/...WILL HAVE TO CARRY AT LEAST LOW TO
MODERATE CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS RING OF FIRE PATTERN
RE-ORGANIZES ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID TO UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY. HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH THE MAIN STORM TRACK FALLS OUT STILL
VERY MUCH AT QUESTION AT THIS POINT. SOME SIGNALS ESPECIALLY BY THE
LAST FEW ECMWF RUNS OF BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE SHUNTING THE MAIN
WARM FRONT AND THUS THE STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION ACRS
THE DAKOTAS...MN AND WI BY EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY. AGAIN THIS VERY
SUBJECT AND LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IF IT CAN INDEED RETREAT
THAT FAR NORTH. BUT IF IT DOES...MUCH OF THE DVN CWA COULD RETURN
TO OR NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S AND BUILDING SFC LAYER HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGHER IMPACT CONVECTIVE MORNING WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS WELL
AS HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME CLEARING AND
RETURN TO MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM WEST-TO-EAST AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SFC WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY AND
RIDDLED BY WAKE LOW GUSTS EARLY IN THE TAF CYCLE...WILL BECOME
WESTERLY AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR OUT AND SWITCH TO A LIGHT
WIND REGIME TONIGHT WITH ARRIVING SFC RIDGE MAY FOSTER SOME PATCHY TO
AREAS OF GROUND OR VALLEY FOG. THE BRL TERMINAL CLOSER TO THE REAL
HEAVY RAIN AREAS MAY BE MORE PRONE TO MVFR TO IFR FOG LATER
TONIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ALL TERMINALS HAVE SOME TYPE
OF FOG IMPACT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MORE ROUNDS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING ACRS
SOUTHEAST IA...NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL WILL INDUCE...OR IS
ALREADY PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RISES AND ADJUSTED FLOOD WARNINGS/
STATEMENTS FOR THE DES MOINES...ENGLISH...LA MOINE...SKUNK...AND
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. THE FOX RIVER NEAR WAYLAND
MISSOURI IN THE PRIME HEAVY RAIN AXIS...IS ON IT/S WAY TO RECORD
FLOODING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DES MOINES-
     HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
456 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-161000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
456 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...
THEN THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER. ANY LINGERING OR NEW STORM DEVELOPING THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HIGH
WATER TROUBLE WILL LAST WELL INTO THE DAY.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS
TOO SOON TO DETERMINE THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD. BUT MORE OCCURRENCES OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING RIVER FLOODING SITUATIONS...OR CREATE NEW ONES.
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. ANY REPORTS
OR UPDATES ON ONGOING FLOODING SITUATIONS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

12

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
546 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BURLINGTON              40.81N 91.12W
06/15/2011                   DES MOINES         IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            20 FOOT WIDE SECTION OF HIGHWAY 61 WITH WATER 2 FEET DEEP
            FLOWING ACROSS IT. ROAD WAS SHUT DOWN BETWEEN 1230 AND 1
            AM.

&&

LE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
609 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HOUGHTON                40.78N 91.61W
06/15/2011                   LEE                IA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY 16 CLOSED BETWEEN W55 AND US 218 DUE TO FLOODING
            OF WATER OVER THE ROAD.

&&

LE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
613 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW MUSCATINE         41.44N 91.08W
06/15/2011  M1.36 INCH       MUSCATINE          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
614 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S MUSCATINE MUNICIPAL 41.35N 91.15W
06/15/2011  E2.50 INCH       MUSCATINE          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE 6 PM LAST NIGHT.

&&

LE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
627 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NE GOOD HOPE            40.56N 90.67W
06/15/2011  M1.90 INCH       MCDONOUGH          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL. THE 48 HOUR TOTAL IS 3.14 INCHES.

&&

PHILIP