Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
340 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ONGOING MCS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH DIURNALLY WANING LLJ BY MID MORNING
BUT WILL HAVE TO CARRY HIGH POPS UNTIL THEN FOR IMPACTED AREAS.
POTENTIALLY VERY SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING AND AREAL FLOODING SITUATION
SETTING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HWY 34 CORRIDOR IN FAR SOUTHEAST
IOWA...NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND INTO EXTREME WEST CENTRAL IL. SOME
CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES OF 3-6+ INCHES OF RAINFALL IN SOME OF THOSE
AREAS OVER PAST 10-14 HRS OR SO. WILL INCLUDE SOME AFTERNOON CHC POPS
FOR THE RIDGE-RIDING VORT/MCV OUT OF NEBRASKA MAKING IT THIS FAR EAST
AND POSSIBLY KICKING UP SOME SCTRD COVERAGE SHOWERS AND STORMS. BUT
THE NEXT MAIN CONVECTIVE SHOW WILL BE TONIGHT AS THE UPSTREAM L/W
TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES SHEARS OUT ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY
THROUGH WED MORNING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY DIFFLUENT MID AND UPPER LEVELS
SPRAWLING OUT ACRS THE REGION TO ENHANCE DEEP LIFT. SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ
OF 40-50 KTS MAY LOOK TO FEED AN EVEN HIGHER ELEVATED THTA-E RICH
PLUME/EML UP ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS UNFORTUNATELY ANOTHER
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING MCS OR POSSIBLY EVEN AN MCC MAY IMPACT MUCH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING AND WILL BLANKET THE ENTIRE
CWA WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT. WILL WORD HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL UP
TO HWY 30. THE CURRENTLY PROGGED CONVERGENT RIBBON OF THE LLJ
SUGGESTS TONIGHT HEAVY RAIN AXIS MAY SET UP A COUPLE OF TIERS OF
COUNTIES FURTHER TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE. BUT WITH CURRENT FLASH FLOOD AREAS GETTING
HIT SO HARD OVERNIGHT...WILL EXPAND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH 12Z WED AND ADD WARREN COUNTY IL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME AREAS OF THE LOCAL CWA TO GET 2-4 INCHES OF NEW RAINFALL
TONIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS IN THE SAME PLACES THAT THE ONGOING TRAINING
IS TAKING PLACE...A VERY SERIOUS FLOODING SITUATION MAY UNFOLD ACRS
FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...FAR WEST CENTRAL IL AND NORTHEAST MO. ANOTHER
DAY OF SUB GUIDANCE HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WILL WALK OUT PRECIP TO THE EAST WITH
PASSING WAVE ON WED AND HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S IN SOME
LOCATIONS. DRY THU WITH RIDGING...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL STORMS FROM THE WEST LATE THU NIGHT.

QUICK LOOK AT THE LONG TERM/FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...WITH UPPER RIDGING
ACRS THE LOWER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY RE-ESTABLISHING TO THE EAST OF
WESTERN CONUS L/W TROFFINESS...RING OF FIRE PATTERN WILL
UNFORTUNATELY LOOK TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE GRT LKS THIS WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO KEEP MENTIONABLE CHC POPS
ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
MAJORITY OF AREA RIVERS MAY BE IN FLOOD IF ALL OF THIS VERIFIES.

..12..

&&

.AVIATION...
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED HAIL TO
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE KBRL TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN STRONGER
CELLS.  THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE IN THE AREA UNTIL APPROXIMATELY
15Z...THOUGH IT MAY LEAVE THE KBRL TERMINAL EARLIER THAN THAT.  KMLI
AND KCID ARE ON THE FRINGES OF THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS...AND SHOULD
GET NO WORSE THAN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING.
 MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT ALL THREE SITES WELL INTO THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.  NEW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT TO AFFECT TONIGHT...BEGINNING AFTER 00Z. KCID...KMLI AND KBRL
THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DURING
THE 15/03Z TO 15/12Z TIME FRAME IN TSRA.    ..LE..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR DES MOINES-
     HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

LE/12

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1215 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1212 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 E CANTRIL             40.64N 91.98W
06/14/2011  M3.50 INCH       VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3.5 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 945 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING.

&&

12

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
102 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 E CANTRIL             40.64N 91.98W
06/14/2011                   VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            JERSEY AVE AT THE ROX RIVER BRIDGE IS CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING

0100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 E CANTRIL             40.64N 91.98W
06/14/2011  M5.00 INCH       VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SINCE 5 PM MONDAY.

&&

DLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
104 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 E CANTRIL             40.64N 91.98W
06/14/2011                   VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            JERSEY AVE AT THE FOX RIVER BRIDGE IS CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING

&&

DLF

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
503 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     HEAVY RAIN       KEOSAUQUA               40.73N 91.96W
06/14/2011  M3.75 INCH       VAN BUREN          IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

PHILIP