Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Detroit, MI

726 
WWUS43 KDTX 011633
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1133 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...WINTER STORM WILL BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SPREADING HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SNOWFALL RATES
REACHING BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
WINTER STORM...VERY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF
35 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HEAVY SNOW TO CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FREELAND TO BAD AXE. SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL OCCUR...HELPING TO CREATE
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL AND WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW DIMINSHING BY THE EARLY
EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 8 AND 15 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-69
CORRIDOR. THOSE RESIDING IN OR PLANNING TRAVEL TO THIS REGION ARE
STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS
BEFORE ATTEMPTING NECESSARY TRAVEL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL...PREPARE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT TO TAKE WITH YOU.

MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-020045-
/O.CON.KDTX.BZ.W.0001.110202T0000Z-110203T0000Z/
SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...PORT HURON...
HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
1133 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

IMPACTS... 

 * HEAVY SNOW...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND 
   DRIFTING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS TONIGHT AND 
   WEDNESDAY. 

 * WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES OF ONE-QUARTER OF MILE 
   OR LESS DUE TO INTENSE SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW. 

 * QUICKLY ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL 
   MAKE ROADS VERY HARD TO CLEAR. 

 * UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY...SNOWPACKED...AND 
   DANGEROUS.

 * HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

 * WIND CHILLS ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 0 AND 5 DEGREES
   BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS EVENING 
   AND BECOME HEAVY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 

 * NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH TONIGHT AND
   WEDNESDAY MORNING...CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
   SNOW...AND WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

 * THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO 
   COINCIDE BETWEEN 10 PM TONIGHT AND 10 AM WEDNESDAY. 

 * HEAVY STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 INCHES 
   ARE EXPECTED. 

 * WIND CHILLS ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 0 AND 5 DEGREES
   BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE 
   EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG 
   WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO 
   WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO 
   NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT 
   WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

MIZ049-053>055-020045-
/O.CON.KDTX.BZ.W.0001.110202T0300Z-110203T0000Z/
HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAD AXE...SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY
1133 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

IMPACTS...

 * HEAVY SNOW...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND 
   DRIFTING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS TONIGHT AND 
   WEDNESDAY. 

 * WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES OF ONE-QUARTER OF MILE 
   OR LESS DUE TO INTENSE SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW. 

 * QUICKLY ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL 
   MAKE ROADS VERY HARD TO CLEAR. 

 * UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY...SNOWPACKED...AND 
   DANGEROUS.

 * HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE THIS 
   EVENING AND BECOME HEAVY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 

 * NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH TONIGHT AND
   WEDNESDAY MORNING...CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
   SNOW...AND WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

 * THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO 
   COINCIDE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 10 AM WEDNESDAY. 

 * HEAVY STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 8 AND 12 INCHES 
   ARE EXPECTED. 

 * WIND CHILLS ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 0 AND 5 DEGREES
   BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE 
   EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG 
   WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO 
   WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO 
   NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT 
   WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

MIZ047-048-020045-
/O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0001.110202T0300Z-110203T0000Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY
1133 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

IMPACTS...

 * HEAVY SNOW...GUSTY WINDS...AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING 
   SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 

 * VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO ONE-HALF MILE OR LESS DUE TO 
   SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. 

 * QUICKLY ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL 
   MAKE ROADS VERY HARD TO CLEAR. 

 * UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY...SNOWPACKED...AND 
   POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS. 

 * HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH THE 
   EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY. SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT 
   AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY 
   AT TIMES. 

 * ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 
   THE MAJORITY OF THIS SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS 
   ON WEDNESDAY. 

 * NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT...
    CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND POTENTIALLY 
   BRINGING PERIODS OF NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. 

 * WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 0 AND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
   ZERO TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER 
   WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT 
   AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. 
   ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN 
   EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE 
   OF AN EMERGENCY. 

&&

$$

252 
WWUS43 KDTX 012121
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
421 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...WINTER STORM WILL BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SPREADING HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SNOWFALL RATES
REACHING BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
WINTER STORM...VERY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF
35 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HEAVY SNOW TO CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL OCCUR...HELPING TO CREATE
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL AND WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW DIMINISHING BY THE EARLY
EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 7 AND 12 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...WITH 10 TO
15 INCHES POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE I 69 AND M 46 CORRIDORS.  THOSE
RESIDING IN OR PLANNING TRAVEL TO THIS REGION ARE STRONGLY
ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS BEFORE
ATTEMPTING NECESSARY TRAVEL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...PREPARE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT TO TAKE WITH YOU.

MIZ047-048-020530-
/O.CAN.KDTX.WS.W.0001.110202T0300Z-110203T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KDTX.BZ.W.0001.110202T0300Z-110202T1700Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY
421 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

IMPACTS...

 * HEAVY SNOW...GUSTY WINDS...AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING 
   SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 

 * WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES OF ONE-QUARTER OF MILE 
   OR LESS DUE TO INTENSE SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW. 

 * QUICKLY ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL 
   MAKE ROADS VERY HARD TO CLEAR. 

 * UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY...SNOWPACKED...AND 
   POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS. 

 * HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EVENING
   HOURS TONIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
   WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SNOW BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES.

 * ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW BETWEEN 7 AND 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE
   MAJORITY OF THIS SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
   WEDNESDAY.

 * NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH TONIGHT AND 
   WEDNESDAY MORNING...CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING 
   SNOW...AND WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

 * WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 0 AND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
   ZERO TONIGHT.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

MIZ049-053>055-060>063-068>070-020530-
/O.EXT.KDTX.BZ.W.0001.110202T0300Z-110202T1700Z/
HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-
LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAD AXE...SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY...
OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN
421 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EST WEDNESDAY...

IMPACTS...

 * HEAVY SNOW...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND 
   DRIFTING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS TONIGHT AND 
   WEDNESDAY. 

 * WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES OF ONE-QUARTER OF MILE 
   OR LESS DUE TO INTENSE SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW. 

 * QUICKLY ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL 
   MAKE ROADS VERY HARD TO CLEAR. 

 * UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY...SNOWPACKED...AND 
   DANGEROUS. 

 * HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE THIS 
   EVENING AND BECOME HEAVY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 

 * NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH TONIGHT AND 
   WEDNESDAY MORNING...CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING 
   SNOW...AND WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. 

 * THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
   COINCIDE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING AND NOON WEDNESDAY.

 * HEAVY STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 8 AND 12 INCHES
   ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...WITH 10 TO 15
   INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG AND BETWEEN THE M 46 AND I 69 CORRIDORS.

 * WIND CHILLS ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 0 AND 5 DEGREES 
   BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE 
   EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG 
   WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO 
   WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO 
   NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT 
   WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. 

&&

$$

MIZ075-076-082-083-020530-
/O.EXT.KDTX.BZ.W.0001.110202T0000Z-110202T1300Z/
WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
421 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

IMPACTS...

 * HEAVY SNOW...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND 
   DRIFTING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS TONIGHT AND 
   WEDNESDAY. 

 * WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES OF ONE-QUARTER OF MILE 
   OR LESS DUE TO INTENSE SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW. 

 * QUICKLY ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL 
   MAKE ROADS VERY HARD TO CLEAR. 

 * UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY...SNOWPACKED...AND 
   DANGEROUS. 

 * HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

 * WIND CHILLS ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 0 AND 5 DEGREES 
   BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS EVENING 
   AND BECOME HEAVY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 

 * NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH TONIGHT AND 
   WEDNESDAY MORNING...CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING 
   SNOW...AND WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. 

 * THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
   COINCIDE BETWEEN 10 PM TONIGHT AND 8 AM WEDNESDAY.

 * HEAVY STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 7 TO 12 INCHES ARE
   EXPECTED.

 * WIND CHILLS ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 0 AND 5 DEGREES 
   BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE 
   EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG 
   WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO 
   WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO 
   NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT 
   WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. 

&&

$$

CB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1147 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

.AVIATION...

THE REGION OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO EDGE CLOSER TO SE MI. VERY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR AS OBSERVED ON THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING HAS THUS FAR
INHIBITED ANY SNOW FROM FALLING AT THE TERMINALS. CLOUD BASES HAVE
BEEN LOWERING DURING THE EVENING THOUGH. THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE 06Z
TO 09Z TIME FRAME. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF
SITES WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OVERALL...EXPECT CEILINGS TO
REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...WHILE VISIBILITIES MAY
TEMPORARILY DROP TO IFR. BY 12Z TUES MORNING...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT
DTW ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...GUSTING
OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE HEAVY WET SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM IS NOT FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT DTW UNTIL 02Z
TUESDAY EVENING...THEN STEADILY LIFT NORTH REACHING MBS BY 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 647 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

UPDATE...

AN UPDATED SET OF GRIDS AND ZFPDTX WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT
HALF HOUR. THIS UPDATE WILL STRICTLY COVER POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS
IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD. UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN INCREASING
FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS REGION OF SNOWFALL IS OCCURRING
WITHIN A DEEP REGION OF FRONTOGENETICAL SUPPORT WITHIN THE EXIT
REGION OF A 130 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET CORE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
THE STRONGEST FGEN FORCING OVER SE MI IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z. MOST OF THE FORCING WILL RESIDE IN THE 850-600MB
LAYER OVER THE AREA. NEAR THE OHIO BORDER HOWEVER...LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FORCING PARTICULARLY IN THE 925-850MB LAYER IS EXPECTED
TO BE QUITE STRONG...ALBEIT BRIEF. IN LIGHT OF UPSTREAM RETURNS
HOWEVER...WILL INCREASE POPS TONIGHT. THE 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
NOT INDICATE FORCING PERSISTING OVER ONE AREA TOO LONG. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LAYER OVER SOUTHERN MI IS EXTREMELY DRY...MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION DOES BECOME QUITE GOOD TONIGHT...SO SATURATION SHOULD
OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY. MID LEVEL STABILITY IS ALSO SHOWN TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. THUS...PLAN TO CARRY A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCH ACCUMULATION
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS LENAWEE AND
MONROE COUNTIES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE/STRONGER LIFT WILL SUPPORT 2
TO 4 INCHES AND WILL WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH
THE EVENING IN THE EVENT THAT FORCING SHOWS EVIDENCE OF BEING A BIT
MORE PERSISTENT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THEREFORE...ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH ARE
FORECASTED THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA WITH CLOSER TO 2 INCHES IN MONROE
AND LENAWEE COUNTIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO SUSTAINED 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ONGOING
SNOWFALL WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS
NIGHTS GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT COLD OR WARM AIR ADVECTION.

LONG TERM...

WINTER STORM STILL ON TARGET TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD.  LATEST WATER VAPOR AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MAIN PLAYERS STILL WELL UPSTREAM AND
IN THE ORGANIZING PHASE...WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY TIED
WITH BY A 130 KNOT UPPER JET CORE EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ANCHORED SOUTH OF A DIGGING POSITIVELY TROUGH WORKING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES.  A PERIOD OF STRONGER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
COMMENCE IN RESPONSE TO THE PRONOUNCED HEIGHT FALLS/INCREASING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AS THESE FEATURES EMERGE INTO WILL SOUTHERN PLAINS/
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY
STRONG CONSENSUS AND LITTLE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY IN DEPICTING
THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION AS IT EVOLVES WITH TIME AND
TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  DESPITE THE
HIGHER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THIS PROVIDES...THERE REMAINS SOME ROOM
YET FOR SLIGHT BUT STILL IMPORTANT ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MODELS WORK TO
DEFINE THE EXACT RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVES
INTERACTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  IN FACT...THE 12Z NAM GIVES THE
FIRST WOBBLE IN PROVIDING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER/SOUTHERLY SURFACE LOW
TRACK.  THIS ADJUSTMENT HAS AGREEMENT FROM MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS STILL CARRIES A STRONGER SOLUTION.

CORRIDOR OF STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL RESIDE ON THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY...TIED TO EXPANDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE...STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING AND A PERIOD OF COUPLED UPPER JET DYNAMICS.
THERE WILL BE NO LACK OF MOISTURE QUALITY AS THIS FORCING ARRIVES
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 3
G/KG.  MOISTURE CONTENT NOT NEARLY AS GOOD NORTH OF I-69...OWING TO
SOME RELUCTANCE OF THE DRY POLAR AIR TO RELEASE NORTHWARD GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE ANTICYCLONE HOLDING TO THE NORTH.  A WILDCARD STILL
WORTH NOTING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH TO
INTERRUPT AND/OR SHUNT THE BETTER FEED OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST.
NONETHELESS...STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO ACHIEVE A
HEALTHY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AREAWIDE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FORCING.
THE MAJORITY OF THIS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN ROUGHLY 03Z AND 15Z
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A LOOK AT THE MOISTURE/THERMAL PROFILE REVEALS A LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE STRUCTURE FOR GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH PRODUCTION.  THE
THERMAL PROFILE CARRIES A TEMPERATURE OF -10C OR WARMER BELOW 600 MB
PER BOTH NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...WITH THE ISOTHERMAL LAYER AND
BETTER ASCENT RESIDING BENEATH THE DGZ.  MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DO
DISPLAY A RESPECTABLE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/LOWER STATIC STABILITY
WITHIN THE SATURATED THETA-E FIELDS...WITH EVIDENCE OF A TIGHTENING
AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
FGEN.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN CONSIDERABLY...AND GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE IMPINGING DRY SLOT WEDNESDAY MORNING...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME THUNDER SNOW.  TAKING ALL THIS INTO
ACCOUNT...STILL LOOKING AT A WINDOW OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL
/PERIOD OF 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL RATES/...BUT PREFER A SLIGHTLY LOWER
DURATION /6-8 HOURS/ OF HEAVIER SNOW TAKING POSSIBLE MID LEVEL DRY
SLOTTING INTO ACCOUNT.  THIS STILL SUPPORTS CARRYING A GOOD
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF 8-12 INCHES SOUTH OF I-69 AND 7-10 INCHES
SAGINAW VALLEY/NORTHERN THUMB.  DO WANT TO TEMPER EXPECTATIONS IN
SEEING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF THIS DESPITE SOME RAW
DATA SUGGESTING AS MUCH...GIVEN SOME CONCERNS NOTED ABOVE.  THE
ADJUSTMENT NOTED BY THE NAM TRICKLES DOWN TO A .2-.3" DROP IN TOTAL
MODEL QPF AND A MUCH MORE DEFINED NORTHERN EDGE TO THE PCPN
GRADIENT.  THIS STILL LEAVES SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH A SOLID WINTER
STORM...BUT OVERALL TRENDS PROVIDE ENOUGH DOUBT TO JUSTIFY SCALING
BACK ON THE HIGHER END ACCUMULATION EXPECTATIONS.

OTHER COMPONENT REMAINS THE WIND...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
CONSIDERABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE FALLING HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE
POLAR HIGH ANCHORED OVER CANADA.  THIS WILL CERTAINLY INTRODUCE THE
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ELEMENT AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25
KNOTS.  HOWEVER...WILL SEE THE BETTER PRESSURE FALLS HOLD TO THE
SOUTH...WITH THE LOW FILLING CONSIDERABLY AS IT PASSES OUR
LONGITUDE.  THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT RAMPS UP BRIEFLY AS THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A
BLIZZARD WATCH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AT THE PRESENT TIME WILL BE
FOLDING OVER AND ATTEMPTING TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE
PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL TRY TO PREVENT
THE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN ANY EVENT...VERY
DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME...AS PW VALUES HOVER AROUND 0.10 INCHES
AND 850-700 MB THETA-E TROUGH LINGERS. WITH WARMING 850 MB TEMPS AND
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW...DON'T SEE MUCH OF A RISK OF FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY-FRIDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO START OUT
IN THE NEGATIVE LOWER TEENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WARMING TO THE LOW
SINGLE NUMBERS ON FRIDAY. NONE-THE-LESS...WILL HAVE SHALLOW/LINGER
ARCTIC AIRMASS...AND DESPITE THE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO BE HELD IN THE UPPER TEENS THURSDAY...AND LOWER 20S ON
FRIDAY...AS MINS SHOULD AT LEAST BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...POSSIBLY
BELOW ZERO (ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER...CLOSER TO SURFACE
HIGH).

THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WAVE/LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. MOST OF THIS ENERGY SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF MI...ALLOWING FOR LOW POPS DURING THE WEEKEND. THERE
IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIP SOUTH THROUGH NRN MI LATE SUNDAY
WHICH COULD YIELD SOME SNOW FOR METRO DETROIT. MODELS ARE NOT IN
CONCENSUS AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND ONE SOLUTION IS TO
PHASE THE CLIPPER WITH A LOW EJECTING NORTH OUT OF THE GOM.

MARINE...

LIGHT SNOW AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
HIGH WAVES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. HEAVY SNOWFALL CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE. A GALE WATCH WILL
CONTINUE FOR LAKE HURON SOUTH OF PRESQUE ISLE FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A GALE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LAKE ST. CLAIR
AND LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH WILL
ALSO CONTINUE FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...MIZ082-MIZ083...UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY.

     WINTER STORM WATCH...MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-
     MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-MIZ083...FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM
     WEDNESDAY.

     WINTER STORM WATCH...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-
     MIZ055...FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY.

LAKE HURON...
     GALE WARNING...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ422-LHZ441-LHZ442-LHZ443-
     LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-
     LHZ464...FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM THURSDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     GALE WARNING...FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM WEDNESDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     GALE WARNING...FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...RK
LONG TERM....MR/SF/MM
MARINE.......RK

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
717 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-011000-
SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
717 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
STREAMS OVER AN ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 2 TO 4 IS EXPECTED IN
LENAWEE AND MONROE COUNTIES WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPOTTERS
ARE HOWEVER ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF GREATER
THAN ONE INCH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MIZ047>049-053>055-011000-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-
717 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
STREAMS OVER AN ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPOTTERS
ARE HOWEVER ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF GREATER
THAN ONE INCH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-011000-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
717 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE
HURON...AS WELL AS LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF LAKE
HURON.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON
THE BOTH THE GALE WATCH AND FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MR/SC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).