Storm Warning 1, NWS Detroit, MI

516 
WHUS73 KDTX 021444
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
944 AM EST WED FEB 2 2011

...WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING...

.THE STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD 
THROUGH OHIO TODAY REACHING NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE BY THIS 
EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH. 

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...SUPPORTING MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LHZ422-030000-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110202T1500Z/
/O.EXA.KDTX.GL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-110203T0000Z/
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
944 AM EST WED FEB 2 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

* WIND: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 
  30 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EST 
  WEDNESDAY.

THE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LCZ460-LEZ444-030000-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-110202T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.BW.Y.0005.110202T1444Z-110203T0000Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
944 AM EST WED FEB 2 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
BRISK WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* WIND: DURING THE BRISK WIND ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 32 KNOTS. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST 
  WEDNESDAY.

THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BRISK WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN AREAS THAT ARE PRIMARILY ICE COVERED. MOVING
ICE FLOES COULD DAMAGE SMALL CRAFT.

&&

$$

LHZ361>363-462>464-030245-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-110203T0000Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.UP.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110203T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
944 AM EST WED FEB 2 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY. 

* EXPECT HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO OCCUR UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 34 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 44 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 18 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 26 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EST 
  WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EST 
  WEDNESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MEANS HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ACCUMULATE ON VESSELS. THESE CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TO NAVIGATION. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT
MARINERS NOT TRAINED TO OPERATE IN THESE CONDITIONS OR VESSELS
NOT PROPERLY EQUIPPED TO DO SO...REMAIN IN PORT OR AVOID THE
WARING AREA.

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-441>443-030000-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-110203T0000Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
944 AM EST WED FEB 2 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 31 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 44 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 16 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 23 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EST 
  WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EST 
  WEDNESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1253 AM EST WED FEB 2 2011

.AVIATION...

BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE IN PROGRESS AT ALL TERMINAL
SITES AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE NOTICED FIRST AT DETROIT METRO AND CITY AIRPORTS
AS THE DRY SLOT OF THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY WORKS IN STRONG ENOUGH TO
CUT INTO SNOWFALL RATES. UNTIL THEN, STRONGER CONVECTION WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED HEAVY SNOW BUT MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE AND WITH
SOME SLEET MIXED IN AT TIMES. FARTHER NORTH, HEAVY SNOW WILL BE
PERSISTENT AND WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS
TO MAINTAIN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING,
ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNRISE. DUE TO THE DRY SLOT, TOTAL SNOWFALL
MAY TURN OUT TO BE CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE 7 TO 11 INCH
RANGE AT METRO AIRPORT WITH RATES CUT INTO BY SOME INTERVALS OF
SLEET AND POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE, THE LATER OF WHICH IS A
BIT SOON TO ADD TO THE FORECAST BUT WHICH WILL BE MONITORED.
FARTHER NORTH, DOUBLE DIGIT ACCUMS LOOK SOLID TOWARD FLINT AND
MBS.

SNOW WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND ALL AREAS BY LATE MORNING BUT IS
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON IN MORE OF A MVFR FASHION AS
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PIVOTS THROUGH THE REGION. SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING WILL BE MAINTAINED BY GUSTY WIND GRADUALLY SHIFTING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BUT EVEN THAT WILL EASE BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 951 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

UPDATE...

THE OVERALL SITUATION IS UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED WITH ABOUT THE ONLY
FORECAST ADJUSTMENT ANTICIPATED BEING TO SHIFT THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN
THUMB AND MENTION A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PLAN TO HOLD THE LINE ON
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR POINTS SOUTH AND MAINTAIN A MODEST MENTION
OF MIXED PRECIP NEAR THE OHIO BORDER BUT MOVE UP IN TIME. THE WIND
AND BLOWING SNOW LEADING TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REMAINS ON TRACK
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED AFTER
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND SUPPORTIVE OF OUR
GOING HEADLINES WITH LOW VISIBILITY AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IN
NORTHERN ILLINOIS, PEAK WIND OF 51 KNOTS AT AURORA. CONVECTION
HAS BEEN FILLING IN STRONGLY THROUGH THE SOUTH FLANK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROWAL AND COMMA HEAD COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
AND STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND WITH A MAGNITUDE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THIS FORCING AND PROJECT
IT TO HOLD TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH THROUGH OUR AREA AS THE TROWAL
CONTINUES TO MATURE THROUGH THE OCCLUSION PROCESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
CONCERNS RAISED IN THE EARLIER DISCUSSION REMAIN VALID REGARDING
MICROPHYSICAL PROPERTIES AREAWIDE AND THE DRY SLOT IMPINGING ON
THE DETROIT AREA. HOWEVER, WHILE SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY NOT
OVERACHIEVE, THE IMPACT IN COMBINATION WITH THE WIND SUPPORTS THE
CONTINUATION OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 411 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

STORM TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

LATEST REMOTE SENSING AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE DEPICTS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DOES NOT SERIOUSLY CONFLICT WITH EARLIER
FORECAST/WARNINGS FOR THE IMPENDING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SET TO
IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN.

THIS EVENING.

ECMWF/GFS/GEM ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEPENING PROCESS OF
MIDLEVEL BAROCLINIC SYSTEM WILL CEASE SHORTLY AROUND 6Z OVER
PORTIONS OF IL AND IN. AFTERWARDS...MODELS DEPICT A SLIGHT
UNRAVELING OR SHIFT EASTWARD OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY AND 500 MB
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELD. AT ANY RATE...THIS DEEPENING INTO THE
EVENING WILL BE ENOUGH TO SURGE THE MIDLEVEL EXTENSION OF THE WARM
FRONT/DEFORMATION AXIS NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. IT IS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY WITHIN THE NORTH WALL OF THE TROWAL THAT THE HEAVIER
SNOW RATES WILL FLOOD INTO THE REGION. DRY AIR SUB 5 KFT IN KDTX 18Z
SPECIAL RAOB AND CONSENSUS OF MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS THAT SNOW WILL
BEGIN ACROSS LENAWEE AND MONROE COUNTIES AT/AROUND 00Z. LATEST
CONSENSUS TIMING OF 1-3 INCH PER HR RATES IS SET FOR THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA AT/AROUND 05Z. THESE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTED PER STRONG
FGEN/DEFORMATION AND LOW STATIC STABILITY ABOVE 800-700MB. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT OF ROUGHLY 3 TO 5
INCHES SOUTH OF M 59...AND ROUGHLY 1 TO 3 INCHES BETWEEN M 46 AND M
59.

OVERNIGHT.

THE SIGNIFICANT WOBBLE OF THE PV ANOMALY IS WELL FORECASTED TO TAKE
THE HEART OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALL
BULLSEYE IMMEDIATELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE 6-9Z
TIMEFRAME. THIS IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RAPID EASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF A TONGUE OF -1 TO 1C AIR BETWEEN 900-800MB THAT WILL
CARRY THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WHILE THIS THETA E
RIBBON AND MOST INTENSE 295 K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LARGELY EXPECTED TO
MISS THE CWA...THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA IS EXPECTED TO WITNESS A
SUBSTANTIAL WARM LAYER IN THE -4 TO -2 C RANGE. THIS IS A FAVORABLE
THERMAL PROFILE FOR THE RIMING OF SNOWFLAKES IN THE PRESENCE OF A
STRONG UVV RESPONSE AND SUPERSATURATION OF SUPERCOOLED WATER
DROPLETS. SO IN THE RELATIVE SENSE....A LIMITING FACTOR TONIGHT FOR
EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LOW SNOW RATIOS (9:1 TO 11:1)
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE IRISH HILLS.

FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHWARD...SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE 12:1 TO 13:1. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A SOLUTION
THAT BRINGS LONGER DURATION OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS/TROWAL ACROSS
THE I 69 AND M 46 CORRIDORS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE RAPID PACE OF THE
SYSTEM MOTION TODAY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THIS
ZONE OF HIGHER UVV/S WILL SURGE INTO THIS REGION BEFORE WEAKENING
APPRECIABLY. THUS...HAVE SHIFTED THE GREATER FORECASTED AMOUNTS
NORTHWARD BETWEEN SAGINAW AND I 69. IT IS IMPORTANT TO STATE THAT IN
STRONGER WIND EVENTS SUCH AS THIS BLIZZARD WARNING...IT IS DIFFICULT
TO GET SNOW RATIOS MUCH HIGHER THAN 12:1 TO 14:1 BECAUSE OF THE
FRACTURING OF SNOWFLAKES WHICH ALL RESULTS IN A GREATER COMPONENT OF
SETTLING.

THE OTHER MAJOR QUESTION MARK IN THIS TIMEFRAME IS THE ALWAYS
RELEVANT DRY SLOT. LATEST LOOPED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A
SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT THAT IS LIFTING INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE UNUSUAL TONIGHT WITH OVERALL BEST
UVV RESPONSE BEING CENTERED ABOVE 700 MB. THUS...ONE NEEDS TO BE
CAREFUL GETTING TOO CAUGHT UP WITH LOOKING TOO LOW FOR THE DRY SLOT
AS BEST LAPSE RATES ALWAYS RESIDE ABOVE 10 KFT. LATEST GFS/NAM
SOUNDINGS AND 500MB PLAN VIEWS DEFINITELY SHOWS THIS WITH A DRY AIR
INTRUSION ABOVE 600MB BETWEEN 9-12Z. PERSONAL BELIEF IS THAT AS THE
STRONGEST DYNAMICS SLIDE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH...THE DRYSLOT SHOULD
WEAKEN AND SHEAR OUT TO THE EAST AS WELL. HOWEVER...THIS PROCESS
WILL LIKELY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MISS THE AREAS COMPLETELY AND
SOME DISRUPTION TO THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES IS ANTICIPATED. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE...THUNDERSNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR DETROIT
SOUTHWARD (WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE).

TAKING THE DRYSLOT AND LOWER SNOW RATIOS INTO ACCOUNT...SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 6-12Z ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 5
INCHES SOUTH OF M 59 AND 5 TO 8 INCHES TO THE NORTH.

WEDNESDAY.

AT 12Z...THE DEFORMATION AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA OVER AND NORTH OF I 69. ALL MODELED INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
OCCLUDING PROCESS OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THIS AXIS TO
WEAKEN WITH TIME TOMORROW MORNING. THE ORTHOGONAL MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM TO THIS AXIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO LIMIT DURATION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE MORNING...WITH SNOWS LARGELY ENDING ACROSS
THE SOUTH PRIOR TO 12Z. ATTM...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED CWA WIDE AFTER 12Z. A STRONG JET CORE IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE (SUB 4 KFT) AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW FOR SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH TONIGHT. A
NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY OF WINDS DOWN SAGINAW BAY AND THE POTENTIAL
MIXING SUPPORTS THE INCLUSION OF BAY AND MIDLAND COUNTIES IN THE
BLIZZARD WARNING. THIS SUPPORTS THE CONTINUATION OF A BLIZZARD
WARNING. THE BLIZZARD WARNING END TIMES HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK TO
8AM DETROIT SOUTHWARD AND TO NOON FOR THE FAR NORTH.

IN TOTAL.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE DETROIT AREA AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 10 TO 15
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE I 69 AND M 46 CORRIDORS. 8 TO 12
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE TRI CITIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

RESIDUAL NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE LEFT BEHIND
IN THE WAKE OF THE WINTER STORM FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
PERIOD...AS THE MAMMOTH HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SPRAWLS EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  A
PIECE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS NOW PENETRATING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS WILL WORK EASTWARD...
ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY TO THE DEGREE NOTED UPSTREAM /925 MB HOLD WITHIN
THE -10 TO -12C RANGE/.   GIVEN A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL GRADIENT...
THE DEGREE OF COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO HOW WELL
SKIES CAN CLEAR.  DEEPER DRYING INTO THE COLUMN WOULD SUPPORT A
DIMINISHING SKY FRACTION WITH TIME.  THIS TRANSLATES INTO LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE HIGHS
STRUGGLE INTO THE 15-20F RANGE ON THURSDAY.

SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY PERIOD AS
HEIGHTS CLIMB SLIGHTLY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEEPENS...BUT STILL
INADEQUATE TO PUSH READINGS OUT OF THE BELOW NORMAL RANGE.  THE
INTERACTION OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A SHEARING SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE WILL DICTATE HOW THE NEXT POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
EVOLVES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
MAINTAIN TWO DISTINCT FEATURES AND CARRY THE DEEPER MOISTURE/
STRONGER FORCING WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE TO OUR EAST.  THE ECMWF
DOES SUGGEST SOME PHASING POTENTIAL AND A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.  IN
ANY CASE...SETUP FAVORS A LOWER END CHANCE FOR SNOW HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

500MB HEIGHTS SHOW A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY...AND MODELS
DIFFER AS TO THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH. A COLD POOL SHOULD BE PRESENT
OVER MI BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS 500MB HEIGHTS NEAR 525DAM VS THE WARMER
GFS. THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE JET STREAM OVER THE APPALACHIANS BEING
10-15KT STRONGER ON THE ECMWF. THIS ACTION WILL STRENGTHEN THE SFC
LOW OVER SRN QUEBEC. NW FLOW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST WHICH WILL REMAIN LIGHT SUNDAY. TIMING DIFFERS FROM
MODEL TO MODEL BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATE SNOW TO THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUES. NOT
NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE CURRENT EVENT...BUT STAY TUNED.

MARINE...

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP INTO TONIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...REACHING GALE FORCE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO OVERNIGHT. HEAVY SNOWFALL AND FREEZING SPRAY
WILL ACCOMPANY THE WINDS FROM SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TOMORROW...AND THEN NORTHWEST TOMORROW
NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...SUPPORTING MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...BLIZZARD WARNING...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ060-
     MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070...UNTIL NOON
     WEDNESDAY.

     BLIZZARD WARNING...MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-MIZ083...UNTIL 8 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

LAKE HURON...
     GALE WARNING...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ422-LHZ441-LHZ442-LHZ443-
     LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-
     LHZ464...UNTIL 3 AM THURSDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     GALE WARNING...UNTIL 11 AM WEDNESDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     GALE WARNING...UNTIL 11 AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR/MM
MARINE.......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
355 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-022100-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
355 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A BLIZZARD WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. STORM TOTAL SNOW REPORTS WILL ALSO BE APPRECIATED WHEN
THE SNOW ENDS ON WEDNESDAY.

LCZ422-LHZ362-363-462>464-022100-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
355 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON AND
LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

GALE WARNINGS AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECAST OR MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FREEZING SPRAY
WARNING CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. STORM TOTAL SNOW REPORTS WILL ALSO BE APPRECIATED WHEN
THE SNOW ENDS ON WEDNESDAY.

LCZ423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441>443-022100-
DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
355 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECAST OR MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE WATERS...INCLUDING ALL OF SAGINAW BAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. STORM TOTAL SNOW REPORTS WILL ALSO BE APPRECIATED WHEN
THE SNOW ENDS ON WEDNESDAY.

LHZ361-022100-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
355 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
209 AM EST WED FEB 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1242 AM     HEAVY SNOW       CHELSEA                 42.31N 84.02W
02/02/2011  M5.5 INCH        WASHTENAW          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DURATION 7 HRS. SNOW DRIFTS APPROXIMATELY 1 FOOT.

0100 AM     HEAVY SNOW       WHITE LAKE              42.65N 83.50W
02/02/2011  M3.5 INCH        OAKLAND            MI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            DURATION 6 HRS.

0100 AM     HEAVY SNOW       ROMULUS                 42.22N 83.37W
02/02/2011  M5.3 INCH        WAYNE              MI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            DURATION 7 HRS.

0100 AM     HEAVY SNOW       FLINT                   43.02N 83.69W
02/02/2011  M1.8 INCH        GENESEE            MI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            DURATION 6 HRS.

&&

BEHNKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
219 AM EST WED FEB 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 AM     SNOW             3 ESE ANN ARBOR         42.26N 83.68W
02/02/2011  M3.0 INCH        WASHTENAW          MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            7 HOUR TOTAL. TRANSITION TO HEAVY SLEET.

0200 AM     SNOW             ALGONAC                 42.62N 82.53W
02/02/2011  M2.5 INCH        ST. CLAIR          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            7 HOUR TOTAL

0218 AM     SNOW             1 NNW ST. CLAIR SHORES  42.51N 82.90W
02/02/2011  E4.0 INCH        MACOMB             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            7 HOUR TOTAL. TRANSITION TO SLEET

&&

MOSTEIKO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
225 AM EST WED FEB 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 AM     BLIZZARD         FLINT                   43.02N 83.69W
02/02/2011                   GENESEE            MI   ASOS

            BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BEGIN OBSERVATION 211 AM. WIND GUST
            36 MPH 1/4SM VISIBILITY.

&&

MOSTEIKO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
309 AM EST WED FEB 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     HEAVY SNOW       2 W LAPEER              43.05N 83.36W
02/02/2011  M5.0 INCH        LAPEER             MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            DURATION 8 HRS. REPORTED THUNDERSNOW.

&&

BEHNKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
310 AM EST WED FEB 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     BLIZZARD         PORT HURON              42.99N 82.43W
02/02/2011                   ST. CLAIR          MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ASOS REPORTS 35 MPH WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH LAW ENFORCEMENT
            REPORTS OF 1/4 MILE VISIBILIY.

&&

MOSTEIKO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
317 AM EST WED FEB 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     SNOW             HIGHLAND                42.64N 83.62W
02/02/2011  E4.0 INCH        OAKLAND            MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            8 HOUR TOTAL. 2 FOOT SNOW DRIFTS AND THUNDERSNOW
            REPORTED.

0315 AM     SNOW             BRIDGEPORT              43.38N 83.88W
02/02/2011  E4.2 INCH        SAGINAW            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            8 HOUR TOTAL ESTIMATED 4 TO 4.5 INCHES.

&&

MOSTEIKO